Chapter 7 Hypothesis Testing

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ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

Chapter 7 Hypothesis Testing

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman EDITION1
Chapter 7
Hypothesis Testing
7-1 Overview
7-2 Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing
7-3 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Large     Samples
7-4 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Small     Samples
7-5 Testing a Claim about a Proportion
7-6 Testing a Claim about a Standard
    Deviation

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 2
7-1 Overview
Definition
Hypothesis
in statistics, is a claim or statement
about a property of a population

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 3
Rare Event Rule for Inferential
Statistics
If, under a given assumption, the
probability of a particular observed event
is exceptionally small, we conclude that
the assumption is probably not correct.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 4
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 7-2 Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION5
7-2
Fundamentals of
Hypothesis Testing

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 6
Figure 7-1 Central Limit Theorem

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 7
Figure 7-1 Central Limit Theorem
The Expected Distribution of Sample Means
Assuming that  = 98.6

Likely sample means

µx = 98.6

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 8
Figure 7-1 Central Limit Theorem
The Expected Distribution of Sample Means
Assuming that  = 98.6

Likely sample means

µx = 98.6

z = - 1.96 z= 1.96
or or
x = 98.48 x = 98.72
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 9
Figure 7-1 Central Limit Theorem
The Expected Distribution of Sample Means Assuming that  =
98.6

Sample data: z = - 6.64 Likely sample means


or
x = 98.20

µx = 98.6

z = - 1.96 z= 1.96
or or
x = 98.48 x = 98.72
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 10
Components of a
Formal Hypothesis
Test

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 11
Null Hypothesis: H0
 Statement about value of    population
parameter
 Must contain condition of equality
 =, , or 
 Test the Null Hypothesis directly

 Reject H0 or fail to reject H0

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 12
Alternative Hypothesis: H1
 Must be true if H0 is false

 , <, >
 ‘opposite’ of Null

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 13
Note about Forming Your Own Claims
(Hypotheses)

If you are conducting a study and want


to use a hypothesis test to support your
claim, the claim must be worded so that
it becomes the alternative hypothesis.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 14
Note about Testing the Validity of
Someone Else’s Claim

Someone else’s claim may become the


null hypothesis (because it contains
equality), and it sometimes becomes the
alternative hypothesis (because it does
not contain equality).

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 15
Test Statistic
a value computed from the sample data that is
used in making the decision about the
rejection of the null hypothesis

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 16
Test Statistic
a value computed from the sample data that is used in making
the decision about the rejection of the null hypothesis

For large samples, testing claims about population means

z= x - µx

n
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 17
Critical Region
Set of all values of the test statistic that
would cause a rejection of the
null hypothesis

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 18
Critical Region
Set of all values of the test statistic that
would cause a rejection of the
null hypothesis

Critical
Region

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 19
Critical Region
Set of all values of the test statistic that
would cause a rejection of the
null hypothesis
Critical
Region

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 20
Critical Region
Set of all values of the test statistic that
would cause a rejection of the
null hypothesis
Critical
Regions

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 21
Significance Level
 denoted by 
 the probability that the test
  statistic will fall in the critical
  region when the null hypothesis
  is actually true.
 common choices are 0.05, 0.01,
  and 0.10

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 22
Critical Value
Value or values that separate the critical region
(where we reject the null hypothesis) from the
values of the test statistics that do not lead
to a rejection of the null hypothesis

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 23
Critical Value
Value or values that separate the critical region
(where we reject the null hypothesis) from the
values of the test statistics that do not lead
to a rejection of the null hypothesis

Critical Value
( z score )
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 24
Critical Value
Value or values that separate the critical region
(where we reject the null hypothesis) from the
values of the test statistics that do not lead
to a rejection of the null hypothesis

Reject H0 Fail to reject H0

Critical Value
( z score )
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 25
Two-tailed,Right-tailed,
Left-tailed Tests

The tails in a distribution are the


extreme regions bounded
by critical values.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 26
Two-tailed Test
H0: µ = 100
H1: µ  100

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 27
Two-tailed Test
H0: µ = 100
 is divided equally between
H1: µ  100 the two tails of the critical
region

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 28
Two-tailed Test
H0: µ = 100
 is divided equally between
H1: µ  100 the two tails of the critical
region

Means less than or greater than

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 29
Two-tailed Test
H0: µ = 100
 is divided equally between
H1: µ  100 the two tails of the critical
region

Means less than or greater than

Reject H0 Fail to reject H0 Reject H0

100

Values that differ significantly from 100


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 30
Right-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ > 100

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 31
Right-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ > 100

Points Right

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 32
Right-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ > 100

Points Right

Fail to reject H0 Reject H0

Values that
differ significantly
100
from 100
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 33
Left-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ < 100

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 34
Left-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ < 100


Points Left

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 35
Left-tailed Test
H0: µ  100

H1: µ < 100


Points Left

Reject H0 Fail to reject H0

Values that
differ significantly 100
from 100
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 36
Conclusions
in Hypothesis Testing
always test the null hypothesis

1. Reject the H0

2. Fail to reject the H0

need to formulate correct wording of final


conclusion

See Figure 7-4

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 37
FIGURE 7-4 Wording of Final Conclusion
Start

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do Yes
original claim contain you reject evidence to warrant only case in
the condition of (Original claim H0?. (Reject H0) rejection of the claim which the
equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
contains equality
No is rejected).
and becomes H0)
(Fail to
“There is not sufficient
No reject H0)
evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1)
(This is the
Do “The sample data only case in
you reject
Yes
supports the claim that which the
H0? (Reject H0) . . . (original claim).” original claim
No is supported).
(Fail to
reject H0) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support
the claim
that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 38
Accept versus Fail to Reject
some texts use “accept the null
hypothesis
we are not proving the null hypothesis

sample evidence is not strong enough


to warrant rejection (such as not
enough evidence to convict a suspect)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 39
Type I Error
The mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is true.

(alpha) is used to represent the probability


of a type I error

Example: Rejecting a claim that the mean body


temperature is 98.6 degrees when the mean
really does equal 98.6

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 40
Type II Error
the mistake of failing to reject the null
hypothesis when it is false.

ß (beta) is used to represent the probability of


a type II error

Example:Failing to reject the claim that the


mean body temperature is 98.6 degrees when
the mean is really different from 98.6

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 41
Table 7-2 Type I and Type II Errors
True State of Nature
The null The null
hypothesis is hypothesis is
true false

Type I error
We decide to Correct
(rejecting a true
reject the decision
null hypothesis)
null hypothesis

Decision
Type II error
We fail to Correct (rejecting a false
reject the decision null hypothesis)
null hypothesis

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 42
Controlling Type I and Type II Errors

For any fixed , an increase in the sample size n


will cause a decrease in 

For any fixed sample size n , a decrease in  will


cause an increase in . Conversely, an increase
in  will cause a decrease in  .

To decrease both  and , increase the sample


size.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 43
Definition
Power of a Hypothesis Test
is the probability (1 - ) of rejecting a
false null hypothesis, which is computed
by using a particular significance level 
and a particular value of the mean that is
an alternative to the value assumed true
in the null hypothesis.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 44
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 7-3 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Large Samples

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION45
Three Methods Discussed

1) Traditional method

2) P-value method

3) Confidence intervals

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 46
Assumptions
for testing claims about population means
1) The sample is a simple random       sample.
2) The sample is large (n > 30).
a) Central limit theorem applies
b) Can use normal distribution

3) If  is unknown, we can use sample


      standard deviation s as estimate for .

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 47
Traditional (or Classical) Method of
Testing Hypotheses

Goal
Identify a sample result that is significantly
different from the claimed value

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 48
The traditional (or classical) method
of hypothesis testing converts the
relevant sample statistic into a test
statistic which we compare to the
critical value.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 49
Test Statistic for Claims about µ
when n > 30
(Step 6)

x - µx
z= 
n

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 50
Traditional (or Classical) Method of Testing Hypotheses
Figure 7-5
1. Identify the specific claim or hypothesis to be tested, and put it in symbolic form.

2. Give the symbolic form that must be true when the original claim is false.

3. Of the two symbolic expressions obtained so far, let null hypothesis H 0 be the one that contains the
condition of equality. H1 is the other statement.

4. Select the significant level  based on the seriousness of a type I error. Make  small if the
consequences of rejecting a true H0 are severe. The values of 0.05 and 0.01 are very common.

5. Identify the statistic that is relevant to this test and its sampling distribution.

6. Determine the test statistic, the critical values, and the critical region. Draw a graph and include
the test statistic, critical value(s), and critical region.

7. Reject H0 if the test statistic is in the critical region. Fail to reject H 0 if the test statistic is not in the
critical region.

8. Restate this previous decision in simple nontechnical terms. (See Figure 7-4)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 51
Traditional (or Classical) Method of Testing Hypotheses
Figure 7-5
1. Identify the specific claim or hypothesis to be tested, and put it in symbolic form.

2. Give the symbolic form that must be true when the original claim is false.

3. Of the two symbolic expressions obtained so far, let null hypothesis H 0 be the one that contains the
condition of equality. H1 is the other statement.

4. Select the significant level  based on the seriousness of a type I error. Make  small if the
consequences of rejecting a true H0 are severe. The values of 0.05 and 0.01 are very common.

5. Identify the statistic that is relevant to this test and its sampling distribution.

6. Determine the test statistic, the critical values, and the critical region. Draw a graph and include
the test statistic, critical value(s), and critical region.

7. Reject H0 if the test statistic is in the critical region. Fail to reject H 0 if the test statistic is not in the
critical region.

8. Restate this previous decision in simple nontechnical terms. (See Figure 7-4)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 52
Decision Criterion (Step 7)

Reject the null hypothesis if the test


statistic is in the critical region

Fail to reject the null hypothesis if the test


statistic is not in the critical region

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 53
FIGURE 7-4 Wording of Final Conclusion
Start

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do Yes
original claim contain you reject evidence to warrant only case in
the condition of (Original claim H0?. (Reject H0) rejection of the claim which the
equality contains equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
No is rejected).
and becomes H0)
(Fail to
reject H0) “There is not sufficient
No
evidence to warrant
(Original claim
rejection of the claim
does not contain
that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1)
(This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject supports the claim that which the
H0? (Reject H0)
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No is supported).
(Fail to
reject H0) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support
the claim
that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 54
Example: Given a data set of 106 healthy body temperatures,
where the mean was 98.2o and s = 0.62o , at the 0.05 significance level,
test the claim that the mean body temperature of all healthy adults is
equal to 98.6o.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 55
Example: Given a data set of 106 healthy body temperatures,
where the mean was 98.2o and s = 0.62o , at the 0.05 significance level,
test the claim that the mean body temperature of all healthy adults is
equal to 98.6o.
Steps:
1,2,3) Set up Claim, H0, H1
Claim:  = 98.6o
H0 :  = 98.6o
H1 :   98.6o

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 56
Example: Given a data set of 106 healthy body temperatures,
where the mean was 98.2o and s = 0.62o , at the 0.05 significance level,
test the claim that the mean body temperature of all healthy adults is
equal to 98.6o.
Steps:
1,2,3) Set up Claim, H0, H1
Claim:  = 98.6o
H0 :  = 98.6o
H1 :   98.6o

4) Select if necessary  level:

 = 0.05 was given

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 57
5 & 6) Identify the test statistic

z= x-µ = 98.2 - 98.6


= - 6.64
 n 0.62 106

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 58
6) Determine critical region(s) and critical
value(s)

 = 0.05
/2 = 0.025 (two tailed test)

0.4750 0.4750

0.025 0.025

z = - 1.96 1.96
Critical Values - Use Table A-2
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 59
6) Draw graph and include the test statistic, critical
value(s), and critical region
Sample data:
x = 98.2o
or Reject Reject
z = - 6.64 H0: µ = 98.6 Fail to H0: µ = 98.6
Reject
H0: µ =
98.6

z = - 1.96 µ = 98.6 z = 1.96


or z = 0

z = - 6.64 Figure 7-6

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 60
7) Reject H0: if TS is in critical region
Fail to reject H0: if TS is not in critical region
Sample data:
x = 98.2o
or Reject Reject
z = - 6.64 H0: µ = 98.6 Fail to H0: µ = 98.6
Reject
H0: µ =
98.6

z = - 1.96 µ = 98.6 z = 1.96


or z = 0

z = - 6.64 Figure 7-6

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 61
7) Reject H0: if TS is in critical region
Fail to reject H0: if TS is not in critical region
Sample data:
x = 98.2o
or Reject Reject
z = - 6.64 H0: µ = 98.6 Fail to H0: µ = 98.6
Reject
H0: µ =
98.6

z = - 1.96 µ = 98.6 z = 1.96


or z = 0

z = - 6.64 Figure 7-6


REJECT H0
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 62
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4

Claim:  = 98.6o
REJECT H0 :  = 98.6o
H1 :   98.6o

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 63
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4
Start

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do
original claim contain Yes evidence to warrant
you reject only case in
the condition of (Original claim (Reject H0) rejection of the claim
H0? which the
equality? contains equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
No
is rejected).
and becomes H0 ) (Fail to
reject H0 )
“There is not sufficient
No evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1 ) (This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject
(Reject H0) support the claim that which the
H0?
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No
(Fail to is supported ).
reject H0 ) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support

Figure 7-4 the claim


that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 64
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4
Start

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do
original claim contain Yes evidence to warrant
you reject only case in
the condition of (Original claim (Reject H0) rejection of the claim
H0? which the
equality? contains equality
and becomes H0 )
No that. . . (original claim ).” original claim
is rejected).
(Fail to
“There is not sufficient
reject H0 )
No evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1 ) (This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject
(Reject H0) support the claim that which the
H0?
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No is supported).
(Fail to
reject H0 ) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support

Figure 7-4 the claim


that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 65
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4
Start

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do
original claim contain Yes evidence to warrant
you reject only case in
the condition of (Original claim (Reject H0) rejection of the claim
H0? which the
equality? contains equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
and becomes H0 ) No is rejected).
(Fail to “There is not sufficient
No reject H0 ) evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1 ) (This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject
(Reject H0) support the claim that which the
H0?
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No
(Fail to is supported) .
reject H0 ) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support

Figure 7-4 the claim


that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 66
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4
Start

Does the “There is sufficient


Yes Do (This is the
original claim contain Yes evidence to warrant
you reject only case in
the condition of (Original claim rejection of the claim
H0? (Reject H0 ) which the
equality? contains equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
and becomes H0 ) No
is rejected).
(Fail to “There is not sufficient
No reject H0 ) evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H1 ) (This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject which the
(Reject H0) support the claim that
H0?
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No is supported).
(Fail to
reject H0 ) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support

Figure 7-4 the claim


that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 67
8) Restate in simple nontechnical terms - Figure 7-4
Start
There is sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of claim that
the mean body temperatures of healthy adults is equal to 98.6 o.

Does the “There is sufficient (This is the


Yes Do Yes
original claim contain you reject evidence to warrant only case in
the condition of (Original claim rejection of the claim
H0? (Reject H0 ) which the
equality? contains equality that. . . (original claim).” original claim
No
and becomes H0) is rejected).
(Fail to
“There is not sufficient
reject H0 )
No evidence to warrant
(Original claim rejection of the claim
does not contain that. . . (original claim).”
equality and
becomes H0 ) (This is the
Do Yes “The sample data only case in
you reject which the
(Reject H0) support the claim that
H0?
. . . (original claim).” original claim
No is supported).
(Fail to
reject H0 ) “There is not sufficient
evidence to support

Figure 7-4 the claim


that. . . (original claim).”

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 68
P-Value Method
of Testing Hypotheses

very similar to traditional method

key difference is the way in which we


decide to reject the null hypothesis
approach finds the probability (P-value)
of getting a result and rejects the null
hypothesis if that probability is very low

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 69
P-Value Method
of Testing Hypotheses
Definition
P-Value (or probability value)

the probability of getting a value of the


sample test statistic that is at least as
extreme as the one found from the sample
data, assuming that the null hypothesis is
true

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 70
P-value Interpretation
Small P-values Unusual sample results.
(such as 0.05 or Significant difference from the
lower) null hypothesis

Large P-values Sample results are not unusual.


(such as above Not a significant difference from
0.05) the null hypothesis

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 71
Figure 7-8 Finding P-Values
Start

Left-tailed What Right-tailed


type of test
?

Two-tailed

Is
Left the test statistic Right
to the right or left of
center
?

P-value = area P-value = twice P-value = twice P-value = area


to the left of the the area to the left the area to the right to the right of the
test statistic of the test statistic of the test statistic test statistic

P-value P-value is twice P-value is twice P-value


this area this area

µ µ µ µ
Test statistic Test statistic Test statistic Test statistic
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 72
Procedure is the same except for
steps 6 and 7
Step 6: Find the P-value (as shown in Figure 7-8)
Step 7: Report the P-value
Reject the null hypothesis if the P-value is
less than or equal to the significance level 

Fail to reject the null hypothesis if the P-value


is greater than the significance level 

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 73
Testing Claims with
Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval estimate of a


population parameter contains the likely
values of that parameter. We should
therefore reject a claim that the population
parameter has a value that is not included in
the confidence interval.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 74
Testing Claims
with Confidence Intervals
Claim: mean body temperature = 98.6º,
where n = 106, x = 98.2º and s = 0.62º

 95% confidence interval of 106 body temperature


data (that is, 95% of samples would
contain true value µ )

 98.08º < µ < 98.32º

 98.6º is not in this interval

 Therefore it is very unlikely that µ = 98.6º

 Thus we reject claim µ = 98.6º

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 75
Underlying Rationale of
Hypotheses Testing
 If, under a given observed assumption, the
probability of getting the sample is exceptionally
small, we conclude that the assumption is
probably not correct.
 When testing a claim, we make an assumption
(null hypothesis) that contains equality. We then
compare the assumption and the sample results
and we form one of the following conclusions:

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 76
Underlying Rationale of
Hypotheses Testing
 If the sample results can easily occur when the
assumption (null hypothesis) is true, we attribute the
relatively small discrepancy between the assumption
and the sample results to chance.
 If the sample results cannot easily occur when that
assumption (null hypothesis) is true, we explain the
relatively large discrepancy between the assumption
and the sample by concluding that the assumption is
not true.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 77
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 7-4 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Small Samples

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION78
Assumptions
for testing claims about population means

1) The sample is a simple random sample.


2) The sample is small (n  30).
3) The value of the population standard          deviation
 is unknown.
4) The sample values come from a population  with a
distribution that is approximately  normal.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 79
Test Statistic
for a Student t-distribution
x -µx
t= s
n
Critical Values
 Found in Table A-3
 Degrees of freedom (df) = n -1
 Critical t values to the left of the mean are
negative

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 80
Important Properties of the
Student t Distribution
1. The Student t distribution is different for different sample sizes (see
Figure 6-5 in Section 6-3).
2. The Student t distribution has the same general bell shape as the normal
distribution; its wider shape reflects the greater variability that is expected
with small samples.
3. The Student t distribution has a mean of t = 0 (just as the standard normal
distribution has a mean of z = 0).
4. The standard deviation of the Student t distribution varies with the sample
size and is greater than 1 (unlike the standard normal distribution, which
has a = 1).
5. As the sample size n gets larger, the Student t distribution get closer to
the normal distribution. For values of n > 30, the differences are so small
that we can use the critical z values instead of developing a much larger
table of critical t values. (The values in the bottom row of Table A-3 are
equal to the corresponding critical z values from the normal distributions.)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 81
Figure 7-11 Choosing between the Normal and Student
t-Distributions when Testing a Claim about a Population Mean µ

Start

Use normal distribution with


Is Yes x - µx
Z
n > 30 / n
?
No (If  is unknown use s instead.)

Is the
distribution of No
Use nonparametric methods,
the population essentially
normal ? (Use a which don’t require a normal
histogram.) distribution.

Yes Use normal distribution with


Is  x - µx
known Z
?
/ n
No (This case is rare.)
Use the Student t distribution
with x - µx
t s/ n
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 82
The larger Student t critical value
shows that with a small sample,
the sample evidence must be more
extreme before we consider the
difference is significant.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 83
P-Value Method
Table A-3 includes only selected values of

Specific P-values usually cannot be found
Use Table to identify limits that contain the
P-value
Some calculators and computer programs
will find exact P-values

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 84
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 7-5 Testing a Claim about a Proportion

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION
85
Assumptions
for testing claims about population proportions
1) The sample observations are a simple random
  sample.
2) The conditions for a binomial experiment are
 satisfied (Section 4-3)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 86
Assumptions
for testing claims about population proportions
1) The sample observations are a simple random
  sample.
2) The conditions for a binomial experiment are  satisfied
(Section 4-3)

3) The condition np  5 and nq  5 are satisfied,  so the


binomial distribution of sample  proportions can be
approximated by a normal  distribution with µ = np and
 = npq

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 87
Notation
n = number of trials

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 88
Notation
n = number of trials

p = x/n (sample proportion)
p = population proportion (used in the
   null hypothesis)
q=1-p

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 89
Test Statistic for Testing a Claim
about a Proportion


p-p
z= pq
n

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 90
Traditional Method

Same as described
in Sections 7-2 and 7-3
and in Figure 7-5

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 91
P-Value Method
Same as described in Section 7-3
and Figure 7-8

Reject the null hypothesis if the


P-value is less than or equal to
the significance level .

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 92

p sometimes is given directly
“10% of the observed sports cars are red”
is expressed as

p = 0.10

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 93

p sometimes is given directly
“10% of the observed sports cars are red”
is expressed as

p = 0.10


p sometimes must be calculated
“96 surveyed households have cable TV
and 54 do not” is calculated using
 x 96
p =n =
(96+54)
= 0.64
(determining the sample proportion of households with cable TV)
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 94
CAUTION

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 95
CAUTION

 When the calculation of p results in a
decimal with many places, store the
number on your calculator and use all
   the decimals when evaluating the z test
statistic.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 96
CAUTION

 When the calculation of p results in a
decimal with many places, store the
number on your calculator and use all
   the decimals when evaluating the z test
statistic.

 Large errors can result from rounding p
too much.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 97
Test Statistic for Testing a Claim
about a Proportion

p-p
z= pq
n
x np 
x-µ x - np n n p-p
z =  = = npq
= pq
npq
n n

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 98
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Section 7-6 Testing a Claim about a Standard Deviation or Variance

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH


Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION
99
Assumptions
for testing claims about a population
standard deviation or variance

1) The sample is a simple random


   sample.
2) The population has values that are
 normally distributed (a strict
 requirement).

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 100
Chi-Square Distribution
Test Statistic

(n - 1) s 2
X2=
2

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 101
Chi-Square Distribution
Test Statistic

(n - 1) s 2
X2=
2

n = sample size
s 2 = sample variance
2 = population variance
(given in null hypothesis)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 102
Critical Values for
Chi-Square Distribution

 Found in Table A-4


 Degrees of freedom = n -1

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 103
Properties of Chi-Square
Distribution

All values of X2 are nonnegative, and the


distribution is not symmetric.
There is a different distribution for each
number of degrees of freedom.
The critical values are found in Table A-4
using n-1 degrees of freedom.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 104
Properties of Chi-Square
Distribution
Properties of the Chi-Square
Distribution

Not symmetric

x2
All values are nonnegative
Figure 7-12

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 105
Properties of Chi-Square
Distribution
Properties of the Chi-Square Chi-Square Distribution for 10
Distribution and 20 Degrees of Freedom

Not symmetric df = 10

df = 20

x2
All values are nonnegative 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Figure 7-12 Figure 7-13

There is a different distribution for each


number of degrees of freedom.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 106
Example: Aircraft altimeters have measuring errors with a standard
deviation of 43.7 ft. With new production equipment, 81 altimeters measure
errors with a standard deviation of 52.3 ft. Use the 0.05 significance level to
test the claim that the new altimeters have a standard deviation different from
the old value of 43.7 ft.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 107
Example: Aircraft altimeters have measuring errors with a standard
deviation of 43.7 ft. With new production equipment, 81 altimeters measure
errors with a standard deviation of 52.3 ft. Use the 0.05 significance level to
test the claim that the new altimeters have a standard deviation different from
the old value of 43.7 ft.
Claim:  43.7
H0: = 43.7
H1:  43.7

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 108
Example: Aircraft altimeters have measuring errors with a standard
deviation of 43.7 ft. With new production equipment, 81 altimeters measure
errors with a standard deviation of 52.3 ft. Use the 0.05 significance level to
test the claim that the new altimeters have a standard deviation different from
the old value of 43.7 ft.
Claim:  43.7
H0: = 43.7
= 0.05 2= 0.025
H1:  43.7

0.025 0.025

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 109
Example: Aircraft altimeters have measuring errors with a standard
deviation of 43.7 ft. With new production equipment, 81 altimeters measure
errors with a standard deviation of 52.3 ft. Use the 0.05 significance level to
test the claim that the new altimeters have a standard deviation different from
the old value of 43.7 ft.
Claim:  43.7
H0: = 43.7
= 0.05 2= 0.025
H1:  43.7

n = 81
0.025 0.025 df = 80
Table A-4
106.629

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 110
Example: Aircraft altimeters have measuring errors with a standard
deviation of 43.7 ft. With new production equipment, 81 altimeters measure
errors with a standard deviation of 52.3 ft. Use the 0.05 significance level to
test the claim that the new altimeters have a standard deviation different from
the old value of 43.7 ft.
Claim:  43.7
H0: = 43.7
= 0.05 2= 0.025
H1:  43.7
0.975

n = 81
0.025 0.025 df = 80
Table A-4
57.153 106.629

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 111
(n -1)s2
x 2
=
 2
= (81 -1) (52.3)2
43.72
 114.586

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 112
(n -1)s2
x 2
=
 2
= (81 -1) (52.3)2
43.72
 114.586

Reject H0

57.153 106.629

x2 = 114.586

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 113
(n -1)s2
x 2
=
 2
= (81 -1) (52.3)2
43.72
 114.586

Reject H0

57.153 106.629

x2 = 114.586
The sample evidence supports the claim that the
standard deviation is different from 43.7 ft.

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 114
(n -1)s2
x 2
=
 2
= (81 -1) (52.3)2
43.72
 114.586

Reject H0

57.153 106.629

x2 = 114.586
The new production method appears to be worse than the old
method. The data supports that there is more variation in the
error readings than before.
Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 115
P-Value Method
Table A-4 includes only selected values of

Specific P-values usually cannot be found
Use Table to identify limits that contain the
P-value
Some calculators and computer programs
will find exact P-values

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 116
Figure 7-15 Testing a Claim about a Mean, Proportion,
                                 Standard Deviation, or Variance
Start

St. Dev 
Use the Chi-square or Proportion
Which Use the normal distribution
distribution with Variance 2
parameter P
ˆ
(n -1)s2 does the claim z= P-P where P ˆ= x/n
x2 = address pq
2 n
?

Mean (µ)

Use the normal distribution with


Is Yes x - µx
n > 30 z=
? n
(If  Is unknown use s instead.)

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 117
Figure 7-15 Testing a Claim about a Mean, Proportion,
                                 Standard Deviation, or Variance

Use the normal distribution with


Is Yes x - µx
n > 30 z=
? n
(If  is unknown use s instead.)

No

Is the
distribution of Use nonparametric methods
No
the population essentially which don’t require a normal
normal ? (Use a distribution. See Chapter 13.
histogram.)

Yes
Use the normal distribution with

Is  Yes x - µx
z=
known n
?
(This case is rare.)
No

Use the Student t


distribution with
x - µx
t=
sn

Chapter 7. Section 7-1 and 7-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 118

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