Jeffery

SOFSEM
2013 :=
The Challenges in ICT:

Debunking the Hype
Keith G Jeffery
Science and Technology Facilities Council
Harwell Oxford
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX
UK
e-mail: keith.jeffery@stfc.ac.uk
©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 1
SOFSEM 2013 :=
The Challenges in ICT:

Debunking the Hype
Or the Keith G Jeffery
nebulous Science and Technology Facilities Council
concept of Harwell Oxford
CLOUD Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX
Computing UK
e-mail: keith.jeffery@stfc.ac.uk
STRUCTURE
Introduction – Who?
The Pervasiveness of ICT
A Short History of ICT
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Rutherford Appleton
Laboratory

Brief Biography
• Degree and PhD in

Geology
• Led teams working on
information systems
• (R&D and services)
• Director IT
• 1100 servers, 360,000
users, 8Pb/year

Associations
=: SOFSEM :=

EC CLOUDs Expert Group
Report 1: Work 2010,

Event January 2011
Published January 2011
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/cloud-report-final.pdf
Report 2: Work 2011,
Event May 2012
Published December 2012
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/home_en.html

So?
This background gives you some idea of ‘where I’m
coming from’
– Advanced research problems requiring ICT solutions
– Research practical (yet leading edge)
• But depends on ‘blue sky’
– International working – consultancy, reviewing, expert
– Strategic thinking for / using blue sky research to plan
roadmaps for ICT R&D
– Design authority for large industrial-scale projects

So?
This background gives you some idea of ‘where I’m coming from’
– Advanced research problems requiring ICT solutions
– Research practical (yet leading edge)
• But depends on ‘blue sky’
– International working – consultancy, reviewing, expert
– Strategic thinking for / using blue sky research to plan roadmaps for ICT R&D
– Design authority for large industrial-scale projects
And what I am going to talk about is the ICT of the future

that we shall all be using and/or developing
And the research challenges we have to overcome to
make it happen
STRUCTURE
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Internet Users by Region

The ASIA Timebomb
ASIA has largest

population, largest
number of users but
relatively low
penetration

Mobile Internet
• Global mobile data traffic in 2011 (597 petabytes per month);

• Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011, more than
doubling for the fourth year in a row;
• The number of mobile-connected devices exceeded
the world's population in 2012.
• There will be over 10 billion mobile-connected devices in 2016;
• The average mobile network connection speed (189 kbps in
2011) will exceed 2.9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2016.

Mobile Traffic Growth

Mobile Traffic Sources

Non-user devices
•The vast majority of computers – 98% - do not have

traditional keyboard, mouse, screen
– They are in cars, planes, washing machines, mobile
phones
•The most-used operating system is NOT Windows (or
Unix / Linux)
– Symbian in mobile phones  iOS  Android
– or specialised operating systems (e.g. Contiki) in
embedded systems

Social Context
•The number of computers will vastly out-number humans on the
planet very soon;
•Everything will be computerised;
– Sensor networks
• Home, healthcare, environment, industrial processes, transport
systems….
– Control systems
• Industrial, transport, home (central heating)…
Just think what a neutron bomb in the atmosphere could do

So…
•This is the ‘internet of things’ or ‘future internet’

•We need to :
– Manage the huge numbers, sizes
– Integrate the different kinds of systems
– Into one environment leading to human decision-making
• whether managing a business, shopping, media choice, social
interaction
•But there is a problem…in last 20 years
– Data storage density increased ~10**18
– Processor power increased ~10**15
– BUT broadband capacity increased ~10**4
•This has implications for Information Systems Engineering!

•In fact the requirement and limitations challenge the very basis of traditional
computer science / ICT

Issues
Elastic scalability
costs, green
Trust & security & privacy
confidence
Manageability
else many administrators
Accessability
different modes of use
Useability
natural – fits with user model of the world
Representativity
of the real world
STRUCTURE
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Era 1
User request, programmer, punched cards, low-level program, mainframe

Era2
User interacts with in-house-written software in high level language on

mainframe or mini. Network proprietary.

Era3
User interacts with off-the-shelf software on PC which interacts with in-

house-written or purchased software on mainframe. Client-server to 3-tier.
Network is (becoming) internet
Era4
User interacts with pre-written software on mobile device which interacts with
pre-written software on mainframe. Network is internet WiFi, 3G, 4G… and
using WWW
CLUSTERs & GRIDs
Having virtualised the way the user interconnects to the application

on the mainframe (Client-Server or 3-tier)
the next logical step is to virtualise the mainframe
CLUSTER GRID
•Racked mainframe •Distributed racked
in-house mainframes
•Homogeneity •Heterogeneity
•Dynamically •Dynamically
reassigned reassigned resources
resources •Mobile Code
Which leads us towards CLOUD Computing

Software
Just to mention there has been a parallel evolution in:

• Programming languages
• Machine code, assembler, autocode, 3G (imperative), functional, 4G
(declarative), scripting, mobile
• Data modelling and management
• Lists, hierarchies, networks (E-R), graphs (EER, ORM)
• Software and systems design
• Including human factors, adopting new modalities (mouse, gesture,
speech, brain-connected)
• Systems development methods (CASE to IDE)
• HIPO, Jackson, SSADM, PRINCE (waterfall to spiral)
• Object-orientation (aspect orientation)

STRUCTURE
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Definition
cloud (klaʊd) an elastic execution

environment of resources involving multiple
stakeholders and providing a metered service
at multiple granularities for a specified level
of quality (of service).
From report EC Cloud Computing Expert Group January 2011

Cynicism
2010 we
recognized that all
our processes were
far too complex
so we put
them in
the cloud

CLOUDs in use
• Social networking But also
• E.g. Facebook 1.Software / system
• Email systems development away from
• E.g. Gmail production systems
• Office systems 2.Experimental techniques
• E.g. Google Docs (like a sandbox)
• Shared storage
• E.g. Google Drive

Gartner Hypecycle

Gartner Hypecycle
Opportunity gap

Cloud Computing
The premise:
•Very old idea Most compute centres utilise only 10%
of capacity but need 100% for rare
•Use of cloud to depict a peaks of demand
computing service or network
•virtualisation
•Now used for a new concept
•Confused with
–GRIDs
–Autonomic computing
–Utility Computing
–Service-Oriented Architecture

Cloud Computing
Hardware
•A very large number of processors Economies of

scale – both
– Clustered in racks as blades purchasing
•In one major computer centre and operation
Energy
– May be replicated for business continuity
economies in
•With massive online storage location
– RAID for resilience Staffing
economies in
•And excellent communications links location
– For access

Cloud Computing
•Low cost of entry for customers Customer View

•Device and location independence
•Capacity at reasonable cost (performance, space)
•Cloud Operator manages resource sharing balancing different peak loads
•Elastically scalable as demand rises (or falls) from user
•Security due to data centralisation and software centralisation
•Sustainable and environmentally friendly – concentrated power
 it is a service and the user does not know or care from where,
by whom, and how it is provided
 as long as the SLA (service level agreement) QoS (quality of
service) is satisfied
 it is a ‘computing utility’ (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS….’XaaS’)

Cloud Computing
Ownership
• Private Cloud: in-house cluster run using
CLOUD middleware;
• Public Cloud: outsourced computing to
commercial provider – proprietary;
• Hybrid Cloud: linked Private and Public
CLOUDs

Cloud Computing
Offerings
Acknowledgements
to U Southampton

Cloud Computing
How does it work

• Multitenancy: Cloud resources (hardware) shared
dynamically between customers;
• Each customer application in its own virtual machine
• Isolation for security, privacy
• Allows scheduling with respect to shared resources
• Application in one VM multithreaded with user
data / profiles etc in other VMs

Cloud Computing
What is it?
•Is cluster computing

– with the advantages that brings
•With GRIDs features
– Scheduling / resource allocation
– self-*
•ASP (Application Service Provider)

Cloud Computing
•Obtains from GRIDs work:

– resource sharing/scheduling
– virtualisation of hardware and low-level software (under middleware)
– resilience
– trust, security, privacy
– (more or less) self-*
Utility computing
Autonomic computing

Cloud Computing
Obtains from software/systems engineering:
Service-Oriented Architecture
with implications of interfaces, metadata,
composition

Cloud Computing
But the real novelty is…
• Pay-As-You-Go (only for what you need);

• Accounting for ICT used by departments in an
organisation;
• Private cloud
• Public cloud
• CAPEX to OPEX

Cloud Computing
•Private Cloud Software : Eucalyptus

•Private/Hybrid Cloud software: Open Nebula,
Open Stack
•Commercial examples of Public Clouds:
• Amazon EC2 Elastic Compute Cloud
• Google (Engine for Apps; Connect for Office)
• Microsoft Azure
• IBM SmartCLOUD
•(note all needed massive resource for infrequent use so could sell of
excess capacity)
•Note Thomas J Watson in late fifties:
“total number of computers required in the world is five”
• are we reaching this goal?
Cloud Problems
•Inefficient to move data to the cloud

•Remember earlier comments about networking bandwidth
•Hard to realise the technology - elasticity
•Despite SLA/QoS guarantees some concerns:
•Performance
•Security/trust/privacy
•Especially transnational

Cloud Studies
Above the Clouds: A Berkeley View of Cloud

Computing
http://www.eecs.berkeley.edu/Pubs/TechRpts/
2009/EECS-2009-28.pdf

Cloud Quotes
The interesting thing about Cloud Computing is that we’ve redefined Cloud
Computing to include everything that we already do. . . . I don’t understand what
we would do differently in the light of Cloud Computing other than change the
wording of some of our ads.
Larry Ellison, quoted in the Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2008
It’s stupidity. It’s worse than stupidity: it’s a marketing hype campaign.
Somebody is saying this is inevitable — and whenever you hear somebody
saying that, it’s very likely to be a set of businesses campaigning to make it true.
Richard Stallman, quoted in The Guardian, September 29, 2008

Hype?
• Architectural model: outsourcing – to large datacentres
- has been around as long as computing
• Business Model: So has ‘pay as you go’
• The difference now is

• Autonomicity for management (including elastic
scalability)
• SOA (Service Oriented Architecture)

Characterisation
PaaS
IaaS SaaS
Elasticity Private
TYPES
Reliability Public
Virtualisation Hybrid
FEATURES MODES
… …
Cost
Local
Reduction
Ease of use BENEFITS

Cloud LOCALITY Remote
… Systems Distributed
COMPARES TO STAKEHOLDERS
Service-oriented Users
Architecture
Adopters
Internet of …
Services Resellers
Grid Providers

Terminology
Types of Clouds
– IaaS; PaaS; SaaS
Deployment Types (Usage)
– Private, Public and Hybrid Clouds
– Community Cloud and Special Purpose Clouds
Cloud Environment Roles
– Cloud Providers: offer cloud systems
– Cloud Resellers or Aggregators: aggregate platforms from cloud providers
– Cloud Adopters or Software / Services Vendors: use cloud platforms to
enhance their services
– Cloud Consumers or Users: make direct use of the cloud capabilities
– Cloud Tool Providers: provide supporting tools for using / improving cloud
environments

Characteristics
Non-Functional Economic Technological
relate to qualities of key driver behind Arise from realising
cloud systems, rather (commerical) cloud non-functional /
than technological systems. Typical economic concerns.
aspects. These include: interest rests on: Particular issues:
•Elasticity •Cost reduction •Virtualisation

•Reliability •Pay per use •Multi-tenancy
•Quality of service •Improved time to •Security, privacy and
•Agility and market compliance
adaptability •Return of investment •Data management
•Availability •CAPEX to OPEX •APIs and / or
•“Going green” programming
enhancements
•Metering
•Tools in general

Related Areas
Internet of Services
– Cloud systems are “enablers” for Internet of Services
Internet of Things
– No direct relationship
– Clouds may extend capabilities of the IoT
The Grid
– Strong conceptual overlap
– Services may move from grid to cloud
Service Oriented Architectures
– Clouds principally architecture-agnostic
– Service offerings should follow the SOA model

State of the Art
Commercial Efforts
Research & Academic Efforts
• Manageability and Self-* • Legislation, Government &

• Data Management Policies
• Privacy & Security • Economic Concerns
• Federation & Interoperability
• Virtualisation, Elasticity and
Adaptability
• APIs, Programming Models &
Resource Control Non-Technical
Technical Gaps Gaps
Economic Aspects
Cost Reduction
Pay per Use
Improved Time to Market
Return on Investment
CAPEX to OPEX
Going Green

Legislation, Governance,
Policies
No standards – vendor lock in

Legality of operating / using CLOUDs
– International jurisdiction
– Privacy and personal data
Security of operating / using CLOUDs
– International jurisdiction
– Security and investigatory powers
No free market in services across CLOUDs

Opportunities
Enhanced Technical
Capabilities
Global Cloud Ecosystems
Increased Interoperability
major contributions to
Reference Implementations Tools & Service Market
Easier Toolsets
Policies & Governmental

Cloud Knowledge &
Issues Business Expertise
Clear Legalistic Solutions Clouds Provisioning &

Usage
Higher Trust in Clouds

Analysis
Cloud computing will play a relevant role in (at least) the next 10 years
Current status insufficient for future business needs
 Europe can contribute in particular with

– R&D in the technological and non-technological areas
– Legislatory & governmental support
– Business & economical expertise
 Relevant business opportunities

– IaaS Cloud Provisioning
– PaaS Cloud Provisioning
– Cloud Adopters and Service Vendors (Enhanced Service (SaaS) Provisioning)
– Cloud Consultancy

Research Issues
Business opportunities not currently realisable

Existing knowledge from preceding research and development can be harvested
Technical Non-Technical
• Scale and elastic scalability • Economic aspects
• Trust, security and privacy • Legalistic issues
• Data handling
• Programming models and
resource control
• Systems development and
management

Target
Private CLOUD
(inhouse, cluster)
interface
Common Service Environment with metadata

and dynamic systems development and composition capability
interface interface interface
Public CLOUD Public CLOUD Other Private

CLOUD

What Stops us..
• I have listed a whole lot of CLOUD specific problems

already such as:
• Interoperability / vendor lock-in
• Security, privacy
• Quality of service / service level agreements
• Legislation
• But CLOUDs throws into sharp relief many underlying
computer science / informatics problems

STRUCTURE
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Research Challenges:
1
Metadata
•the need for metadata related to services,
data/information/knowledge, agents;
•what is data, what is metadata?
•kinds of metadata and their use;
•representation and structure - syntax;
•semantics (meaning);

The Vision: The Models
Complete cohort of users
User Model interaction with data, processing, persons
providing what the user

Processing Model requires
representing the world Data Model

representing ICT Resource Model
Complete ICT environment

The Vision: Metadata for
ENGAGE Data Model
DISCOVERY
Linked (DC, eGMS…)
open data
Generate
CONTEXT
(CERIF)
Formal Point to
Information
Systems DETAIL
(SUBJECT OR TOPIC
SPECIFIC)

2
Management of state
•detection of state across millions of individual
nodes;
•maintenance of state across many nodes;
– transactions and locking;
– roll-back and compensation;

Management of State
•ACID, 2PC, Locking, Rollback or compensation:
– As number of tables increases
– And the number of instructions to be executed increases
– And the latency (due to distribution) increases
•It becomes impossible to represent the real world with:
– Integrity
– Consistency
– Accuracy

3 (1)
Data representativity
•data structures representing real-world inter-
relationships;
– data attribute value encoding (character set, media
encoding), types, lengths;
– data attribute value language;
– fully connected graphs – the death of the hierarchy;
– the time-machine: temporal duration of the inter-
relationships;
– certainty, probability of the inter-relationships
– Incomplete and inconsistent information
3 (2)
Data representativity
•Interoperation
– reconciliation of different data structures
representing a similar real-world domain;
•data location / locality and replication
– for business continuity;

Data Representativity:
Interoperation
•Homogeneous view over heterogeneous sources
– Character set, language, syntax, semantics
•Schema reconciliation
– Structural mapping – graph theory
– Lexical mapping – domain ontologies
– Need richer metadata

4
Data quality, veracity and permanency
•detection of quality against metadata parameters
e.g. precision, accuracy;
•provenance;
•temporal recording;
•data curation across media and policy evolution;

5
Trust, security and privacy
•policies declared, enforced and monitored through
restrictive metadata;
•policy reconciliation for interoperation;
•Legalistics
•Rights
•Responsibilities

6
Management of service levels and quality of
service
•policies declared, enforced and monitored
through restrictive metadata;
•service level negotiation (e.g. lower price for
lower performance);

7
Systems design, development, maintenance and
decommissioning
•based on strong separation of:
– services (processes),
– data, information and knowledge
•assuming self-(re-)composition, self-managing and
adjusting, self-maintaining properties ;
•assuming mobile code properties

A final challenge?
• Is the von Neumann architecture still valid?

• Should we not optimise communications over other
priorities?
• Remember the transputer
• Do we need to write programs?
• Should we not just compose (dynamically – software
’robots’) from services as components (like other
branches of engineering)?
• Will social / legal changes ever catch up with
technology?

STRUCTURE
CLOUD Computing
Challenges
Conclusion

Conclusion
Being ever optimistic, I believe these challenges will

be met.
But has some machine passed the Turing test and
nobody noticed?
(2012 was the year commemorating Alan Turing birth

centenary)

Prof. Keith G Jeffery
CEng, CITP, FBCS, FGS, HFICS
Director, International IT Strategy
STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

keith.jeffery@stfc.ac.uk
Acknowledgements to Lutz Schubert, HLRS, Stuttgart; rapporteur EC

CLOUDs expert Group

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SOFSEM

The Challenges in ICT:

The Challenges in ICT:

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 3

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 4

• Degree and PhD in

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 5

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 6

Report 1: Work 2010,

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 7

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 8

And what I am going to talk about is the ICT of the future

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 10

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 11

ASIA has largest

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 12

• Global mobile data traffic in 2011 (597 petabytes per month);

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 13

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 14

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 15

•The vast majority of computers – 98% - do not have

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 16

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 17

•This is the ‘internet of things’ or ‘future internet’

•This has implications for Information Systems Engineering!

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 18

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 20

User request, programmer, punched cards, low-level program, mainframe

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 21

User interacts with in-house-written software in high level language on

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 22

User interacts with off-the-shelf software on PC which interacts with in-

Having virtualised the way the user interconnects to the application

the next logical step is to virtualise the mainframe

Which leads us towards CLOUD Computing

Just to mention there has been a parallel evolution in:

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 26

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 27

cloud (klaʊd) an elastic execution

From report EC Cloud Computing Expert Group January 2011

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 28

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 29

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 30

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 31

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 32

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 33

•A very large number of processors Economies of

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 34

•Low cost of entry for customers Customer View

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 35

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 36

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 37

How does it work

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 38

•Is cluster computing

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 39

•Obtains from GRIDs work:

©STFC/Keith G Jeffery The Challenges in ICT: Debunking the Hype 20130127 40

Obtains from software/systems engineering: