Article one: A comparison of geostatistical procedures for spatial analysis of precipitation

in mountainous terrain* (Author: Donald L. Phillips , J a y n e Dolph and Danny Marks)

Article Two: Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact
assessment under data scarcity — The potential of field monitoring techniques and geo-statistics

Review by :-
Alemayehu Meg………………………………………………….GSR/4698/14
Alemayehu Men………………………………………………….GSR/9211/14

Submitted to : Dr. SOLOMON G(PhD)

Feb. 2021
 ProfileIntroduction
of the Candidate
Quantitative evaluation of the amount and spatial distribution of
• The performance of three geostatistical methods for making
precipitation
meanis annual
required for a estimates
precipitation number on of a applications
regular grid ofi.e
hydrologic/forest modelling,
points in soil-moisture
mountainous modelling
terrain was for crop
evaluated. Theproduction
methods
were:
and irrigation scheduling, etc. (e.g. Running et al., 1987).
( 1 ) kriging;
• topographic relief has large
(2) kriging effects on precipitation.
elevation-detrended data Precipitation
generally increases with elevation
(3) cokriging & mountain
with elevation ranges also
as an auxiliary create
variable.
'rain shadows' on the leeward side.
• Weather stations tend to be sited at low elevations and may thus
underestimate the regional precipitation (Dolph and Marks, 1992).
Objective:
• Precipitation to evaluate
at higher (or lower)theelevations
effectiveness
near aofweather
geostatistical
station
may procedures which utilizereflected
not be accurately topographicby information
the weather(cokriging&
station
elevation-detrended kriging) and those which do not
measurements.
(kriging),for estimating precipitation across mountainous
• Spatially distributed precipitation estimates, which take into account
terrain, in order to provide spatially distributed precipitation
the spatial arrangement of weather station data, precipitation-
data for agricultural and natural resource management models.
elevation relationships & topographic relief are needed.

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 cont……….
Methodology
• Spatially distributed measurements or estimates of precipitation over a
region are required for modelling of hydrologic processes and soil
moisture for agricultural and natural resource management
• Simple interpolation methods fail to consider the effects of topography on
precipitation and may be in considerable error in mountainous regions).

• The performance of three geostatistical methods for making mean

annual precipitation estimates on a regular grid of points in
mountainous
kriging;
 kriging elevation-detrended data; and
cokriging with elevation as an auxiliary variable.

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 The first step is referred to as constructing a sample (experimental) semi-variogram.
cont……….
All possible pairs of data points are examined, the pairs are grouped by distance
classes, and one half the variance of the difference in values (the semi-variance) is
Methodology
graphed vs. the distance class.

• The basic goal of geostatistical methods such as kriging and cokriging is

to interpolate values for points or areas which have not been sampled,
Second step: atheoretical curve (model semivariogram) is fit to these points either by
using data from surrounding sampled points.
eye, by least-squares regression, or preferably by optimizing the model through cross-
validation
• Anyprocedures.
interpolation scheme must assign a series of weights to the neighboring
points to be used in order to compute an interpolated value of the variable of
interest (e.g. precipitation).

Kriging and cokriging consist of three steps:.

1) an examination of the covariation of data values depending on their distances apart;
2) fitting theoretical models to these relationships; and
3) using these models to calculate the weights for a particular set of neighboring points and
computing the interpolated value.

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Result/precipitation
Profile of theestimation
Candidate
Figures 8, 9, and 10 show the precipitation estimates (transformed back
from log annual precipitation )determined by ordinary kriging, elevation-
detrending kriging, and cokriging, respectively.

The median and range of the precipitation estimates by each method

are summarized in Table 2.

• CV values are a measure of the uncertainty of the interpolated value.

The mean CV for precipitation estimates was 21% for kriging, 16%
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for detrended kriging, and 17% for cokriging.
 cont………./conclusion
• Compared with kriging, detrended kriging and cokriging both
exhibited better precision

• Detrended kriging and cokriging both provide spatially distributed

estimates of precipitation which take into account precipitation-
elevation relationships.

• The inclusion of these relationships leads to precipitation estimates

of improved accuracy and precision compared with ordinary
kriging in mountainous terrain on the scale of a few million
hectares.
• Such estimates are needed for the use of spatially distributed
models of hydrology and soil moisture for agricultural and natural
resource management.an examination of the covariation of data
values depending on their distances apart;
• Precipitation-elevation relationships weaken at larger scales, necessitating a
different approach for providing spatially distributed climate data .

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 Article Profile
- two of the Candidate

• CV values are a measure of the uncertainty of the interpolated value. The mean CV for
precipitation estimates was 21% for kriging, 16% for detrended kriging, and 17% for
cokriging.

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 Background
Profile of the Candidate
• According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high
risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological
budget and extremes.

• These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management
of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply.

• The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) highlights an expected increase in air temperature throughout
the 21st century.

• Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate

model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very
uncertain and poorly validated.

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Background
Profile of the Candidate

Objective:

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 Methodology
Profile of the Candidate
Study area

The catchment is characterized

• mountainous region
• The main land use in the region is
agriculture,
• The basin drains an area of
approximately 472.5 km2

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 cont… Profile of the Candidate

Soil information and soil sampling campaign

• The quality of the hydrological model setup of WaSiMis strongly dependent
on the available soil information, as pointed out by Rieger et al. (2010)
• soil texture information was surveyed by collecting a total of 239 soil samples
in the catchment during two field campaigns.

• Soil samples were taken following a design-based, was stratificated based on

quantiles of the two land-surface parameters, topographic wetness index and
potential incoming solar radiation, which were derived from a Digital
Elevation Model (DEM).

• Based on the available soil information, WaSiM was then set up with two
different soil model versions.

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 cont… Profile of the Candidate

Soil information and soil sampling campaign

• The quality of the hydrological model setup of WaSiMis strongly
dependent on the available soil information, as pointed out by Rieger
et al. (2010)
• soil texture information was surveyed by collecting a total of 239 soil
samples in the catchment during two field campaigns.

• Soil samples were taken following a design-based, was stratificated

based on quantiles of the two land-surface parameters, topographic
wetness index and potential incoming solar radiation, which were
derived from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM).

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 cont… Profile of the Candidate
Parametrization of the Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM):
• Based on the available soil information, WaSiM was then set up with two
different soil model versions. One model was set up with the Regression
Kriging C map (WaSiM-RKS) and the other setup used the standard soil
map that was based on the Aru et al. (1990) soil map (WaSiM-ARU).
1) model was set up with the Regression Kriging C map (WaSiM-
RKS)------(to map soil friction fraction)

2) the other setup used the standard soil map that was based on the Aru et
al. (1990) soil map (WaSiM-ARU).----------,

WaSiM------(to simulate water balance), it work based on daily time based, Etp – penman
moneith equation)

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 cont… Profile of the Candidate

Soil information and soil sampling campaign

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 Result Profile of the Candidate

• Authors, applied the physically based, fully distributed hydrological model

WaSiM driven by a downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model
ensemble (RCM) for a reference (1971–2000) and future time series
(2041–2070), to quantify climate change impacts on water resources in the
Mediterranean RMB located on the island of Sardinia, Italy.

• Simulated results project a clear reduction of P, Q, ETr, and SWC,

especially in the growing season (March to June) i.e ETr rates are
significantly reduced from April to October for the future time series in all
simulation results.

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 Result Profile of the Candidate
Parametrization of the Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM):
• Note that Table 5a shows WaSiM results of the same water balance components
(runoff (Q), actual evapotranspiration (ETr) and soil water content (SWC)) using
two different soil model setups. Projections show that the hydrological parameters
Q, ETr and SWC are expected to decline in the future.

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Cont.---
• Since the study site is an ungauged catchment, hydrological modeling results of the
REF and FUT were compared based on annual and monthly mean averages.
• One can recognize that the soil model parametrization implies high uncertainties on
the total modeled hydrological quantities like Q and SWC.
• Modeled monthly mean ETr sums of both WaSiM soil model setups are in good
correspondence for the reference and future time series and show only minor
difference in modeled total quantities.
 Cont…….
Critics

 The data used from water years 1982-1988 (Oct 1981- Sept 1988 ).

 While limiting the period of record to 7 years may increase the standard errors for
annual precipitation means,

 A jack-knife procedure of cross-validation was used

 Data points were deleted one at a time, values were kriged or cokriged for the
missing points, and the estimated and actual values were compared.

 In their simplest form, kriging and cokriging assume that there is no 'trend’ or
'drift' in the data, i.e. no consistent, directional gradient in the variable (s).

 For this study only the samples of 30 cm were taken, since the number of samples
taken in other depths was much smaller, and not sufficient for geostatistical
regionalization approaches
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THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!.

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