1.

SEISMIC HAZARD
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS(MSTR502)

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 1

 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Seismic Hazard
Hazards associated with earthquakes are commonly referred to as seismic hazards.
The most important seismic hazards are:
1) Ground Shaking
- Magnitudes
- Sub-soil type
2) Structural Hazard
3) Liquefaction
4) Landslides
5) Retaining Structure Failure
6) Fire
7) Tsunami
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 2
1) Ground Shaking
- Magnitudes
- Sub-soil type

The Effect of Ground Shaking

Main cause EQ induced damage.
All buildings or structures on the ground surface vibrates when
the earth vibrates.
If the engineering structures are not properly designed and
construct, earthquake induced accelerations, velocities and
displacements can damage or destroyed the engineering
structures.

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 3

1. Ground Shaking

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 4

1. Ground Shaking…..

Loma Prieta, CA 1989

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 5
1. Ground Shaking….

Kobe, Japan 1995

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 6

2. Structural Hazard

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 7

3. Liquefaction

 Generally occur in low saturated sand (the soils flows

and behaves like a liquid).
 Liquefaction is important while designing dam, bridge,
and buildings on soft/loose soils

Niigata, Japan 1964 Source: National Geophysical Data

Center
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 8
3. Liquefaction……

Liquefaction in Kobe

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 9

3. Liquefaction……

Liquefaction during Gorkha EQ, 2072

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 10

4. Land Slide

 Landslide can completely damage the building.

Niigata, Japan 1964 Source: National Geophysical Data

Center
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 11
4. Land Slide…..

Failure of Van Norman Dam from 1971 San Fernando

Earthquake
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 12
4. Land Slide…..

Failure of freeway overpasses during 1971 San Fernando

Earthquake
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 13
5. Retaining Structure Failure

Failure of Van Norman Dam from 1971 San Fernando

Earthquake
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 14
6. Fire

 Fire starts from electrical short circuit or from kitchen

after an EQ.
 EQ results in loss of water supply, breaking of pipes,
traffic jams, etc., so it is difficult to control the fire.
 For example 1923 Tokyo EQ, 50% of total number of
houses were burnt due to fire and many people were
killed.

1923 Tokyo earthquake

15
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
6. Fire…..

2011 tohoku earthquake

16
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
6. Fire…..

2011 tohoku earthquake 17

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
7. Tsunami

 Tsunamis or large sea waves are produced as a result of a

sudden movement of the ocean floor.
 As the water waves approach land, their velocity
decreases and their height increases (sometimes up to 10
m or more).
 Tsunamis can be dangerous for buildings built in coastal
areas

18
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
7. Tsunami….

19
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
7. Tsunami….

2011 tohoku earthquake

20
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa
1.2 Mitigation
•The goal of a structural/earthquake engineer is to mitigate
seismic hazard.
•The earthquake resistant design of structures can be
effective for new constructions, however, for existing
conditions of seismic hazard, mitigation may be processed
with soil strengthening (like grouting, drainage,
reinforcements etc.), preparing EQRD codes.

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 21

 Hazard, Vulunrability or Risk????

 Seismic hazard can be evaluated from instrumental,

historical, and geological observations and is
quantified by two parameters: a level of hazard and
its recurrence interval or frequency: for example, an
M7.5 earthquake with a recurrence interval of 500
years, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.3g
with a return period of 1,000 years.
 Seismic risk, on the other hand, describes a
probability of occurrence of a specific level of seismic
hazard or loss over a certain time (e.g., 50years), and
is quantified by three parameters: probability, a level
of hazard or loss, and exposure time. For example, a
5 percent probability that an M7.0 or greater
earthquake could be expected in 50 years in an area
and a 10 percent probability that 0.3g PGA could be
exceeded in 50 years at a site are both seismic risk.
 Hazard----------------- Potential Threat
 Vulnurability---------- how damage can occur?
 Risk--------------Probability(Hazard+Vulurability)
Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 22
The conceptual difference between seismic hazard and
risk can be illustrated by a comparison of seismic hazard
and risk in San Francisco and Memphis (Fig. 1).

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 23

Figure 1 shows that San Francisco and Memphis experienced
a similar intensity (MMI VIII or greater) during the 1906 San
Francisco earthquake and the 1811-1812 New Madrid
earthquakes.

The recurrence intervals of the M7.8 earthquakes are about

100 years in San Francisco and 500 to 1,000 years in
Memphis. Let us consider two identical buildings (exposures)
with a normal life of 50 years, one in San Francisco and one
in Memphis. If we only consider seismic hazard, a similar
intensity (MMI VIII or greater) may be used for seismic design
for both buildings. If we consider seismic risk, however,
higher design intensity should be used in San Francisco than
in Memphis because seismic risk is much higher in San
Francisco: about 39 percent chance of exceeding MMI VIII in
50 years versus about 5 to 10 percent chance.

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 24

This example shows that a seismic design or mitigation
policy based on seismic hazard assessment may differ
from that based on seismic risk assessment. Moreover, a
policy decision is based more on seismic risk, rather
than seismic hazard. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly
define seismic hazard and risk and how to assess them.

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 25

 Seismic Vulnurability assessment:

 Objectives
• Understand the types of vulnerability: physical, social,
economic and environmental.
• Understand the complexity in approaches used for
vulnerability and the varying ways in which it is
defined.
• Indicate the ways in which vulnerability can be
expressed.
• Outline the main approaches used for flood,
earthquake and landslide vulnerability assessment.

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 26

Er. Umesh Jung Thapa 27