Changing Dimensions of Tourism and Future Perspectives

Toney K. Thomas, PhD

Acknowledgements
UNWTO Library

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

WTTC Reports

Bloom Consulting and D2-Analytics

World Economic Forum Reports

International Monitory Fund

Keyword Planer Data

BTS Business Travel Statistics
Business Wire
Odisha Tourism
Key Pillars of Analysis
Economic
Perspectives Technology

Industry

World
Destination
Tourism

Travel
formalities

Tourists
Are we able to dignify or degrade the dignity of tourism Industry?
Most powerful adverse impact may be disappearance of small scale travel agencies?
India – what tourists are looking for?
Tourist Gaze 1.0
Tourist Gaze 2.0
Tourist Gaze 3.0 Authenticity as the key, immersive experiences

Culture, heritage destinations are more inclined to ‘authenticity’

Temples, monuments, the arts and festivals
 Global uncertainty and destination image
14 Covid 19

12 Destination Image

10
Brand Nought (B0)
The global average for the
8
COVID-19 crisis is B0 = 1:8
6 Both economic terms &
SARS
2002-03
Recovery terms
4
Avian
Flu Swain
Bird flue Ebola
2003-09 Flu
2013-17 2014-16
2009-10
2

0 2002 2008 2014 2020

Plotted by the researcher,2020,2021

IMF, 2020, D2 Analytics
06/01/2023 © 2021 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 6
How Long it last?
1-5 Years

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Plotted by the researcher, 2021

IMF,UNWTO,WTTC, WEF, 2020-2021
06/01/2023 © 2021 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 7
Outlook of World tourism before and during pandemic
Before USD Billion USD Billion During
1993

Tourism
1960

31%
1586

40%
20-
1470

1466

ND
20%
Tourism
80%
Lessen learned

? 2020

2022

700+m
2021

10
415m
Months
5
6Months
Months
Y 1996
400m

Year 1986

Analyzed data by the researcher, UNWTO, WTTC, WLO

 Signs of recovery
2020 2021 2022
1.4b March April May June
US$3.5 trillion

20

40

50% to 63% Differed demand

60
63.1

73% 72%
80
415 Million
92.6
US$1.9 trillion
96.4
100 97.1

400 Million
Scenario – Global economic space 10 Countries with Highest
covid cases - MICs
6 5 billion 75% Pop in MICs

5 Global economic growth

depends on MICs (60%
World Economy)
4 2027
Global Consumer class – 4 Billion

3
IMF modeling reviles the
global consumer class reach 5
2 2020 2026
billion in 2027

1
It’s a temporary long decline
for 3-4 Years
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Global Economy Rebound 5.8% in 2021

Source: Harvard Business Review 2020
06/01/2023 © 2021 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 11
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/11/25/when-will-the-global-consumer-class-recover/
Building the Scenario tourists

Scenario 1 45%
Pandemic controlled and part of human life

Scenario 2 35% Not confident to travel

Near to eradication and medicines developed

Scenario 3
Full eradication of pandemic and no travel restrictions 15%

Source: Bloom Consulting and D2-Analytics © 2020/2021

There's been security
increases outside of airports. Staycation effect.

Increase in deportations. Makes inbound tourism cheaper

and more attractive to foreigners.
There was an increase
in surveillance. Travel pattern changed
Travel Behaviour significantly in developed
Airport security

?
Destination Choice countries
has gotten a lot stricter
Technology and AI Technology and AI
Technology and AI

Destination safety
Ground SARS Economi Covid 19 Destination convenience
Zero Flue c Criss
Economy
Family
Safety Health Economy Demography
Safety
Anxiety
Health
Economy
Fear
Schedule Collapse
India – Environmental Scanning
Change in Travel and Tourism GDP GDP = INR14,181.9BN -36.3% GDP = INR9,039.5BN

Change in Jobs 40,111.9MN -20.8% 31,785.2MN

Change in International Travel Spend INR2,282.3BN -61% INR890.7BN

Change in Domestic Travel Spend INR10,384.8BN -30.7% INR7,201.4BN

Noted more inclination to regional markets

Odisha Tourism – Environmental Scanning

652
14,25,770
9,50,753

(-)84.19 (-)99.35

TOTAL: 23,77,175 (-) 84.29%

DoT, Statistics Cell, 2021

Odisha tourism ‘plotting’ the facts
42977

15M 1.15Lakh
24212

1819
14960

Most Ideal Condition 9071

7972

4986 4545
2719
1867

a a ia ia ia ia a
e ric e ric lia pe o pe As As As As ric
Am Am st ra
u ro
Eu
r
W. S .
SE
. E. Af
N. S. Au W.E E.
C&
 Semi permanent transition of tourism
Tourists seek more information Business closed, new started
prior to their trip Rebuilding tourism
New approaches
Market volatility Digital revolutions in the Profitable, competent &
TOURISM industry Confident

‘vacation’ modeling

Conscious vacations
Parameters of
Destination choice decision making
Looks on the Ground Realities
Disappearance of small scale TA and TOs

40% Towards complete shut down

36 Towards temporary shut down

%
Coastline packages for familiarization and rebuilding
Odisha on Social Media - Analysis
269 K Followers- Strong Base
Content engagement is low

25.8K  New subscribers for the last 30 days (+81.7 %)

23.775 Million video views for the last 30 days (81.3 %)

0.19% (Lower than average engagement)

Number of followers are not increasing

Very low content engagement

Less than 200 likes

Less than 1000 user views
Public Perception of Odisha
Public Perception of Odisha
Role of media
Role of brand ambassadors (not conventional)
Theming and imaging

Odishatv.in
 Impact of travel formalities – Indian tourists
Virtual Travel experience (Air BMB)
More destination awareness Formalities
Visa cost, travel insurance, stay, high
cost tourism

Business events, MICE Projected Indian Outlook of Indian Market

Differ due to technological influence Market condition Confidence of other countries

‘Staycation’ effect
Demographic shifts
More domestic demand while slow
Middle income decline,
entry to regional demand
discretionary income, spending
Dom. Tourism is the road to recovery
patterns
India middle class shrinks by 32 million

06/01/2023 © 2021 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 22

A faster recovery of Indian middle class– Is it viable?
Proposed economic stimulus shorten
the travel decisions More stimulus to Most preferred
the Industry

Economic Stimulus activate

Economic Middle class sentiment
National Economic and Tax holidays
stimulus boost
Tourism

Unconditional re-
opening

Source: Mood of the Nation survey, 2021

06/01/2023 © 2021 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 23
 Attractions
Immersive Tourism
(augmented reality) Build Business Eco-system
Transition pathways
Co-creation & Collaboration
Regional corridors
Packaging Value creation
‘quixotic’ packages
‘Strategic’ ‘fam’ trip
Promote social entrepreneurship

Small Travel Companies Don’t break the (supply) chain

Bring them back

Image building
Local/ National media engagements
Digital engagements
Reels, social media pages
Tourism Policies
Brand engagements
Khun Wirachai Pranveerapaibool – social entrepreneurship initiative

Before After
8 THB 100 best pineapples of the year (1,543 THB)
9 best with price of 15,430 THB

THB300,000

How much will you pay for one Pineapple?

Acknowledgement - Khun Wirachai Pranveerapaibool
Odisha – Value Additions ODISHA – Geographical Indications
Kotpad Handloom Fabric (Handicraft)
Orissa Ikat (Handicraft)
15
Konark Stone Carving (Handicraft)
12
Orissa Pattachitra (Handicraft)
Pipli Applique Work (Handicraft)
10
Khandua Saree and Fabrics (Handicraft)
Gopalpur Tussar Fabrics (Handicraft)
Ganjam Kewda Rooh (Manufactured)
Ganjam Kewda Flower (Agricultural)
Dhalapathar Parda & Fabrics (Handicraft)
3
1 1 Sambalpuri Bandha Saree & Fabrics (Handicraft)

Bomkai Saree & Fabrics (Handicraft)

fts lture uring

Habaspuri Saree & Fabrics (Handicraft)
cra t ood
di i cu a c F Berhampur Patta (Phoda Kumbha) Saree & Joda (Handicraft)
n r f
Ha Ag a nu Orissa Pattachitra (Logo) (Handicraft) 
M
Araku Valley Arabica Coffee (Agricultural) 
Kandhamal Haladi (Agricultural) 
 Digital concierge in
hotel

AI-powered systems navigate new

security standards.

Self manage flight disruptions

AI powered multilingual chatbots

Intelligent automation to
structure unstructured data

APP for travelers to stay healthy

and safe
 Technological interventions – the great accelerator
KEEP YOUR DESTINATION ALIVE

Oculus Rift headsets

360-degree virtual marketing of holiday destinations
1,300 in Feb, 10,000 in March
Increasing number of countries to use VR marketing efforts to prepare for
the gradual recovery of their tourism industries

Going to accelerate with VR in a post-pandemic environment

Exploration of potential destinations

Enablers of Increased product knowledge
Demand Future travel plans
Improved destination image

06/01/2023 © 2020 TONEY K. THOMAS, MAHATMA GANDHI UNIVERSITY 28

Actions to rebuild and grow tourism
Radical VR
Oculus Rift
Edge of Space VR

Immersive experience in Colosseum

Actions to rebuild and grow tourism
• Profit for
survival
•
• Profitable Very close market watch
• Profit for Booking & • Rethinking
survival Cancellations • Market watch National & International
• • Capacity development • Investment
Sectoral
• Innovation
Benchmark
Coordination • Regulate
• Stimulation • Safe, clean, quality Value additions
Packages labeling
• Stimulate DMOs
• Subsidies Grow
Demand
• Tax Holidays • Restore travel
• confidence
Booking &
Cancellations
Stabilize

Sustain

Note: 2021, an increased momentum from regional market

Actions to rebuild and grow tourism – Odisha Tourism
Benchmarking & Profiling
Market Intelligence Attraction/ Destination rating system
Close watch on generating market
environment

Destination Management
Technological adoptions
Hot Spot ‘Hub’ and Rural ‘Spoke’
Development layers
Mainstream and Rural Tourism
New Product Development Community Based Tourism
Enhancements & Additions
Badmul raked in Rs 1.3 crore from
eco-tourism, bolstered by 3000 visitors,
20 per cent of whom were foreign
Market Leadership tourists (2019)
Competitiveness
Modelling the key notes in shaping tourism
Possibility of economic segmentation
Travel become more expensive
Middle class sentiments
Industry
Technology
Frequent demand shift
Economic AI and Robotics play an important role
Innovation and adaptation Perspectives
Collaboration and cooperation VR and AR become more relevant to tourism
Profit or survival
Small industries

World Dynamic shift in demand and supply

Destination
Tourism Structural changes
Face this challenge collectively & Immediately Sectoral changes
Rebuilding consumer trust and confidence
Travel Additional expenses
Regional cooperation to restore tourism formalities Cost for quality
Regional niche tourism push
Hygiene/ cleanliness a keyword
New policies and plans
Tourists
Competition pattern will change
Possibility of demographic segmentation
IR 4.0 Conscious selection of destination
Visibility Subsection forefronts decision making
 Analyzing the facts

No standardization is possible between destinations, that is not related to the intensity of

Pandemic

Huge gap between demand and supply, destinations are opened for visitors but visitors are
anxious
Key of success

“Well-Functioning Government, Sound Business Environment,

High Levels of Human Capital and better trust.
Thanks