A

PROJECT REPORT
ON
(Collecting Information on changes took place in local and regional demography)
SUBMITTED BY:-
(Prathmesh Gaikwad)
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF:-
PROF. Deepali Nimbalkar.
SUBMITTED TO:-
SAVITRIBAI PHULE PUNE UNIVERSITY
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF
BACHELOR OF BUSNIESS ADMINISTRATION

DR. DY. COLLEGE OF ARTS, COMMERCE, AND SCIENCE AKURDI

ACADEMIC YEAR (2022 – 23)
CERTIFICATE OF THE GUIDE 1
 This is certify that the work incorporated in the report entitled (Project name)
submitted by (student name) was carried out under my guidance and supervision at the
Department of Bachelor Of Business Administration, Dr. DY Patil Arts, Commerce & Science
College, Akurdi, Pune and has not been submitted previously for any other degree or
discipline to any other university/institute. Such material has been obtained from other
sources has been duly acknowledged in this report.
 
PLACE- DATE-
 
 
• EXTERNAL EXAMINER INTERNAL EXAMINER
 
 
 
• Prof. Deepali Nimbalkar. Dr. MOHAN B. WAMAN
• (Project Guide) (PRINCIPAL) 2
 DECLARATION
This is to certify that the project on (Topic name) submitted in partial fulfillment of the
award for Degree of Business Administration Bachelor is a bonfire record of original
project work done by me during the academic year 2022 – 23 under the guidance of Prof.
Deepali Nimbalkar.
 
I hereby declare that all the facts and figures included. The project is a result of my on
research and investigation including formal analysis of the entire project work and the
scene has not been previously submitted to any examination of the university. This
declaration will hold good and in my wise belief with consciousness.

  Date:
Place:

  Signature of student
3
(Student name)
 INTRODUCTION
Due to the sheer size of its population and the unorthodox
trajectory of its changing character. With a population of more
than 1.3 billion, it contains nearly 18 percent of the global
population and is expected to surpass China (population of 1.38
billion in 2015) within the next six years to become the most
populous country in the world.1 Interestingly, during the rst
census after India’s independence in 1947, the population of
India was only 68 percent of that of China. It is now as high as 95
percent. Accord-ing to 2015 estimates, the population of China is
increasing by approximately 7 million people per year while the
population of India increases by about 16 Professor of
DemographyJawaharlal Nehru Universty Assistant Professor of
DemographyK.S. JJamesGoli_LAYOUT.indd 169 12/12/16 9:59 4
the brown journal of world affairsK.S. James and Srinivas Goli170million per year.2
While India is the seventh largest economy in the world, its rank acutely falls to 140
and 129 based on per capita income and per capita purchasing power parity (PPP)
gures respectively.

3 esalience of India’s growing population is undeniable, but the country is also

rapidly transitioning per many other demographic metrics. A country’s population
signicantly impacts its development, and its population is aected in turn by how it
develops. It has been well recognized that population size, structure, and
composition have a critical—although not deterministic—impact on economic
development.

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4 is paper argues that while demographic change oers signicant opportunities for
economic transformation in India, the unique nature of this demographic change
will simultaneously create its own challenges. Unless these challenges are seriously
addressed, demographic changes in the country may not yield their anticipated
benets. In this context, the paper reviews trends in Indian population size and the
drivers of population change, arguing that these changes are unique and
unconventional as compared to the experience of Western countries. Moreover, it
speculates on the opportunities and challenges India is bound to face given the
unconventional character of its demographic changes.

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 OBJECTIVES
Unfulfilled Educational Requirements: While over 95% of India’s children attend
primary school, the National Family Health Surveys confirms that poor
infrastructure in government schools, malnutrition, and scarcity of trained teachers
have resulted in poor learning outcomes.The gender inequality in education is a
concern as in India, boys are more likely to be enrolled in secondary and tertiary
school than girls.However, in the Philippines, China and Thailand, it is the reverse
and in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, the gender differences are rather
minimal.
Low Human Development Parameters: India ranked at 131st position by the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index 2020, which
is alarming.Therefore, health and education parameters need to be improved
substantially to make the Indian workforce efficient and skilled.Jobless Growth:
There is mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to
de-industrialization, de-globalization, and the industrial revolution 7
4.0.As per the NSSO Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for
the age-group 15-59 years is around 53%, that is, around half of the working age population is
jobless.The informal nature of the economy in India is another hurdle in reaping the benefits of
demographic transition in India.Absence of Proper Policies:Without proper policies, the increase in
the working-age population may lead to rising unemployment, fuelling economic and social risks.
Rise in the Share of Elderly Population: A greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater
proportion of elderly in the population in future.This will create a demand for better healthcare
facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.People, typically in
informal employment, don’t have social security, it will add burden to the respective state.

NSSO Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for the age-group
15-59 years is around 53%, that is, around half of the working age population is jobless.The informal
nature of the economy in India is another hurdle in reaping the benefits of demographic transition in
India.Absence of Proper Policies:Without proper policies, the increase in the working-age population
may lead to rising unemployment, fuelling economic and social risks.
Rise in the Share of Elderly Population: A greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater
proportion of elderly in the population in future.This will create a demand for better healthcare
facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.People, typically in
informal employment, don’t have social security, it will add burden to the respective state. 8
 SCOPES

Increase in Fiscal Space: Fiscal resources can be diverted from spending on children
to investing in modern physical and human infrastructure that will increase
economic sustainability of India.Rise in Workforce: With more than 65% of the
working age population, India can rise as an economic superpower, supplying more
than half of Asia’s potential workforce over the coming decades.Increase in the
Labour Force that enhances the productivity of the economy.Rise in Women’s
Workforce that naturally accompanies a decline in fertility, and which can be a new
source of growth.

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 Research and Methodology
The study uses the DemProj and RAPID modules of Spectrum Suite 5.753 to
estimate the magnitude and duration of demographic dividend for India by making
demographic projections from 2001 to 2061. The potential demographic dividend
is estimated by comparing GDP per capita across two different demographic
scenarios in the DemProj module:
(i) Demographic-As-Usual Scenario—This scenario presents a hypothetical case
where the status quo continues, that is, the demographic variables in the
DemProj modules are assumed to be fixed at 2001 level.1

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• (ii) Demographic-Emphasis Scenario—It represents a case where the
demographic projections based on the United Nations (2019) medium variant
fertility scenario2 is used for the entire period 2001–2061. Our estimation
process of the demographic dividend is in line with the previous simulation
exercise by National Council for Population and Development and Health Policy
Project (2014), Uganda’s National Planning Authority (2014), Bloom et al. (2015),
and Lutz et al. (2019).

• Since there is nothing automatic about economic returns from demographic

transition unless accompanied by a favourable socio-economic policy
environment in the country (Bloom et al. 2003; Bloom 2011; Mason 2005), we
consider this fact by parametrizing the simulation modelling along the lines of
Ashraf et al. (2013) and Karra et al. (2017) by including various possible channels
of demographic-economic linkages

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• First, a shift in the age-structure of the population towards the working-age group
will increase the potential labour supply. In addition, lower fertility induces more
participation of females in the labour market. This is described in the previous
literature as the labour supply effect. Rather than assuming full employment in
our model, we allow for some degree of unemployment since everyone will not
get absorbed in the market. Secondly, the accumulation of human capital, that is,
investment in health, education, and skills of the population increases as lower
resources are needed to be diverted for child caring and rearing (referred to in
the previous literature as human capital effect research and methodology daalde

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 Theoretical Information
The demographic transition theory studies the relationship between economic
development and population growth. It discusses about changes in birth rate and
death rate and consequently growth rate of population in assonance with the
process of growth and development.
It is also used to describe and predict the future population of any area. The
theory tells us that population of any region changes from high births and high
deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses from rural agrarian and
illiterate to urban industrial and literate society.
These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic
cycle. There are four stages of demographic transition related to the state of
economic development.
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 CONCLUSION
• India is undergoing rapid demographic change. demographic outlook of the
country looks brighter, more equal, and will have many. de-mographic progress in
the country has been rapid and not in line with classical transition experiences, as
it was not preceded by much socioeconomic change. has generated considerable
in achieving the desired of de-mographic change. While the country is not fully
prepared to take advantage of the huge that accrue from its expected
demographic changes, it is possible to ameliorate the drawbacks with concerted
and policy changes.Indian family ties continue to be strong. Marriage remains
nearly universal and divorce is rather rare.
• Moreover, care of the elderly is addressed mostly within the family. At the same
time, resources within the family are scarce. As pointed out above, rapid aging is
a serious threat to the anticipated demographic bonus in India

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• refore, the country has to make serious to enhance the qual-ity of life in all age
groups through human capital improvement and skill level enhancement.

• Such orts necessitate a huge public investment in education and health. India’s
highly privatized and compartmentalized health and educa-tion systems, which
have very opportunities for economic classes, perpetuate these disparities
instead of reducing them, in contrast to what health and education systems from
public support have tended to do around the world.52 Moreover, in a highly
informal employment setup where just 3 percent of total workers operate in the
formal sector, both public and private insurance based health care systems and
bank-sponsored education systems tend to help only the haves and not the have-
nots. Currently, health spending in India (4 percent of GDP) is among the lowest,
not only in the larger economies of the world, but also compared to some poorer
countries such as Malawi (8.3 percent), Namibia (7.7 percent), Tanzania (7.3
percent), and Sudan
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 Reference
 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314115975_Demographic_Changes_i
n_India_Is_the_Country_Prepared_for_the_Challenge

 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9395952/

 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.gktoday.in/topic/demographic-transition-t
heory/amp/

 https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-editorials/demographic-
transition-in-india#:~:text=The%20proportion%20of%20elderly
%20population,decrease%20to%2022.7%20by%202036.
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THANK YOU