2.

1 Causal Analysis
and Problem Trees
The TOC Process

Data collection and analysis (identify problems)

• Use causal analysis to create a problem tree You are here !
• Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change
• Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
• Prioritize outcomes the project will address
• Identify intervention outputs
• Transfer the TOC to the logframe
• Identify indicators for TOC components
• Complete complementary documentation
• Review annually at minimum
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Session Objectives

• To understand how to used causal analysis to create a

problem tree

• To identify strong and weak causal linkages in sample

problem trees

• To practice drafting concise problem statements for all

problem levels

• To critically analyze and organize problems and causes

into a logical flow
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Holistic problem analysis

• Improves ability to design and implement

integrated programs that improve well-being
outcomes.
• does not mean bigger broader programs by one
institution
• is a non-sectoral or cross-sectoral approach
• sectors and stakeholders working together to adopt
complementary strategies to address common issues
• Relies on rigorous causal analysis
• the identification of common constraints and
opportunities, feedback loops, and underlying causes of
food and nutrition insecurity

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Causal Analysis

• Helps to understand why a key problem

exists

• Explores cause-effect pathways,

including cross-causal linkages

• Identifies specific causes that can be

acted upon
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Problem Trees

• Represent a systems-thinking approach

to analyzing cause and effect
• helps to identify multiple causal
linkages

• Most critical (and overlooked) element

of rigorous project design

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Prioritize an Overarching Problem

Overarching problems will be selected based primarily

on such criteria as:
• The significance or scope of the problem (i.e., the number
of people it impacts or the degree to which society
considers it a serious problem)

• The degree to which resolution of the problem will result

in well-being for the impact group

• In FFP-funded Activities the overarching problem is

often pre-determined to be food and nutrition
insecurity.
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Identify key problems, underlying causes,
contextual conditions
Start with an inventory of problems/causes

Then, organize/arrange/filter into:

•Key problems – broad conditions that negatively affect
people (e.g., low income, poor health status), and
contribute to an overarching problem.  
•Underlying / root causes – specific contributors to key
problems (often the effects of other root causes).
•Contextual conditions – social, economic, political, or
natural conditions that contribute to underlying causes
and often are the result of key problems (cycle of
vulnerability).
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 Underlying Cause
What’s going on at the ------

Household and
Community level? Systemic level?
individual level?

Constraints that are

HH and individual external to the
constraints (e.g., Weak community
community, such as
behaviors, cohesion or lack of
government
knowledge and skill shared values that
policies, the delivery
levels, and attitudes) hinder the delivery
of social services,
that limit and maintenance of
and market and
opportunities to social and economic
social forces outside
achieve positive infrastructure.
the community’s
livelihood outcomes control.

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10
Underlying Causes
Behavior/ Knowledge, skills, Systemic
practices beliefs, attitudes weaknesses
Primarily • Knowledge, • Systemic • Contextual
influenced by: skills, beliefs, weaknesses conditions
attitudes • Contextual
• Systemic conditions
weaknesses
• Contextual
conditions
Primarily • Specific • Behavior/ • Knowledge,
contribute to: conditions practices skills, beliefs,
• Contextual • Systemic attitudes
conditions. weaknesses • Behavior/
practices
• Contextual
conditions

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 Examples of Causal Streams

Condition
Condition

(broad)
(broad)

High rates of HIV/AIDS Problem Low Farm Family

Infection Income

Cause Declining Crop Yields

Condition
(specific)
Behavior

People engage in unsafe Cause Severe Soil Erosion

sex practices

Cause Farmers use improper

Behavior
plowing techniques
Behavior/
Attitude

Knowledge
Condom use is limited Cause Farmers unaware of
benefits of contour
plowing
Knowledge

Systemic
Beliefs/

Condom use has Cause No access to extension

negative cultural services or information
connotations 12
 Problem 1 Problem 2 Problem 3
Underlying
Example: Limited food Example: Low income Example: Inadequate
Causes availability security nutrition
Farmers do not use Early marriage negatively Intra-household
improved practices affects girls’ education, disparity re: allotted
Behavior leads to low wages for food
and women
Households sell
practices nutritious foods
produced

Farmers do not want to People do not have Limited nutritional

Knowledge, risk investing in crops they entrepreneurial skills knowledge.
are not familiar with
skills, People, esp. women are
not educated
attitudes, Taboos re: what PLW
eat.
beliefs
Markets unavailable and Low prices for crops District level health care
unreliable services are
No institutions offering understaffed.
Systemic HH do not have land title business development
constraints deeds training. Existing staff are not
able to share nutritional
Poor extension services Predominant religion knowledge with health
considers borrowing with clients 13
interest a sin
Problem Statements

• WHAT: determine the limiting condition

• WHO: identify the population affected by the condition

• Overarching problem (impact population)
• Underlying causes (if a subset of impact population)

• WHERE: the location of the population

• Necessary for overarching problem; optional for underlying causes

• Food insecurity for vulnerable pastoralist households

in Fafan zone of Ethiopia.

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 Problem Statements: Identify subset impact
populations
If a problem disproportionately affects a subset of the
population, specify it.
Impact group identified Subset group identified
in overarching problem for underlying cause
statement
Food insecurity for Inadequate amount of nutrients consumed
vulnerable pastoralist by children under age 5 in Borena zone
households in Fafan
zone Women have limited access to extension
services
Low agricultural yields for agro-pastoral
households

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 16
Identify strong and flawed causal linkages in this sample

PROBLEM: Food insecurity among rural households

Low livestock production Low income security Low crop production

Reduced capacity to
Po o r so ils earn income from
De nud e d non-agricultural
Limite d a nima l
Inc re a se d inc id e nc e la nd sc a p e s, activities
d ra ft p o we r
live sto c k dise a se , unsusta ina ble
m a lnutritio n wa te r m g m t.
Inadequate
agricultural labor
No institutions
offering
Lim ite d Ina d e qua te Large-scale business
Inability to
a c c e ss a c c e ss to fa rm migration in development
replace lost
to d rug s, inp uts search of training
assets
a nim a l work
following Less productive
he a lth shock labor
se rvic e s
No access
Limited to credit, Limited capacity
crop / Ina d e q ua te to challenge
savings &
husbandry fa rm factors
insurance
kno wle d g e inc o m e contributing to
High animal a nd skills; marginalization
mortality p o o r NRM
Lim ite d num b e r Damaged crops
o f tra nsa c tio ns and seed stock as HH do not High
a result of shocks have titles to prevalence Low
Po o r land (no of illness literacy
e xte nsio n collateral) levels
se rvic e s Inc re a se d d a ma g e to
Ma rke ts
a lre a dy p o o r ro a d
unavailable a nd
syste ms unre lia ble Limited early
warning Few financial Limited access Limited access
systems institutions to health care to education
services

Re g ula r e xp o sure to tro p ic a l Glo ba l e c o no m ic We a k g o ve rna nc e , struc ture s,

sto rm s, hurric a ne s, se ism ic a c tivity vo la tility syste m s (d isa b ling e nviro nm e nt)
 Identify strong and flawed causal linkages in this sample
PROBLEM: FOOD INSECURITY AMONG RESOURCE POOR RURAL FAMILIES

Limited Food Availability Low Income Security Inadequate Nutrition

Low crop Limited variety Lo w die ta ry

production Inadequate of foods dive rsity
agricultural labor produced

Po o r so il
Ina d e q ua te Lim ite d
fe rtility Less productive
a c c e ss to fa rm nutritio na l
inputs labor
kno wle dg e
No access
to credit
Lim ite d a nim a l Ina de q ua te Few income
d ra ft p o we r fa rm Increased opportunities
inc o m e impact of
HIV/AIDS Low literacy
Hig h a nima l HH have no levels
m o rta lity ra te collateral
Lo w p ric e s
fo r c ro ps Limited Limited capacity to
HIV/AIDS challenge factors
Inc re a se d inc id e nc e Limited contributing to
education Few financial
live sto c k d ise a se s entrepreneurial
institutions marginalization
skills
Ma rke ts
Limite d a c c e ss unavailable a nd Parents are
to d rug s No institutions
unre lia ble offering ED training not educated
Limited crop /
husbandry Po o r
kno wle dg e e xte nsio n HH do not have Community places low value
a nd skills se rvic e s Lim ite d infra struc ture land title deeds on education

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Structures and Systems (i.e. Government Policy, Laws, Culture)
Identify strong and flawed causal linkages in this sample

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Summary

• Different populations or different regions may appear

to have the same broad categories of problems, yet it is
critical that we identify context-specific underlying
causes.
• Causes occur at multiple levels (household, community,
and systems) and in various forms (behaviors/
practices; knowledge, skills, attitudes, beliefs; and
systemic weaknesses).
• A problem tree helps us to visualize the non-linear
causal logic of problematic conditions.
• A problem tree with strong causal logic can be easily
transformed into a TOC with strong causal logic.
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Group Activity 2.1
Create a problem tree
• Use your group’s preliminary analysis

1.Prioritize an overarching problem and write a problem

statement:
• WHAT: Determine the condition the project is intended to
address.
• WHO: Identify the population affected by the condition
(e.g., target population).
• WHERE: The area or location of the population.

2.Identify key problems (broad conditions) and draft

concise statements.
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Group Activity 2.1
Create a problem tree

• 3) Document underlying causes on sticky notes

• Write as concise statements

• Make it clear if a problem disproportionately affects a
subset population
• Be sure to include the various types of causes (systemic;
knowledge, skills, attitudes, beliefs; behavior/practices)
• Note the evidence base for each identified cause. If
supporting data do not exist in your data set, note the data
gap on the flip chart!

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 Group Activity 2.1
Create a problem tree

• 4) Begin causal analysis to develop the problem tree

• Organize causes to demonstrate how they occur
sequentially or simultaneously.
• Start by putting contextual constraints at the bottom of the
tree.
• Next work your way down from the key problems

• Ask “ what are the key reasons problem X

exists?” Keep asking “any other reason”, until all
causes that can explain most of the problem are
identified.

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Group Activity 2.1
Create a problem tree

• 4) Once a causal stream is in place re-check

causal logic:
• Move down the stream using statements such as
“Condition X exists…….because of Condition Y”. For
example, there is a high prevalence of livestock disease
because there is limited adoption of improved husbandry
practice.
• There is limited adoption of improved husbandry practices
because there is limited access to animal health care
supplies (deworming meds; vaccinations, etc. ) and limited
knowledge of how to protect livestock health
• Check causal logic moving up the stream, e.g., Condition X
and Condition Y and Condition Z are the main reasons
Condition A exists.

• 5) Check the balance of types of constraints

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Check causal logic

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Group Activity 2.1
Create a problem tree

• 6) Once the logic begins to hold, capture the problem

tree in an electronic format

• If the diagram cannot fit legibly on one page, create a

separate page for each key problem.
• Be sure to show how the problems link to one another
across pages. (Handout 2.1c)

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SAMPLE of linking the problem tree across pages
Page 1

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SAMPLE of linking the problem tree across pages
Page 2

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SAMPLE of linking the problem tree across pages
Both pages

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