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Chapter 3
Chapter 3
Introduction to Probability
CHAPTER 3
Basic concepts of probability 2
Introduction- experiment
Event – a subset of the sample space, it may consist of one or more
Terms outcomes
Tree diagram
a visual display of the outcomes of a probability experiment by
using branches that originate from a starting point.
can be used to find number of possible outcomes in a sample
7
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Example 3.1 Answer a true/false question True, false
1.
Solution 3.2
2. Suppose B – boy, G – girl
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG
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B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
Solution 3.2 – G BGG
tree diagram B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
10
11
Solution 3.2 Sample space = {YM, YF, NM, NF, NSM, NSF}
Probability 0 0.5 1
Classical /
theoretical uses when each outcome in a sample space is equally
Approach likely
P(A) to Number of outcomes in A
occur.
k
Number of outcomes in the sample space n
If a sample space has n equally likely outcomes, and an
event A has k outcomes, then
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Example 3.4 2. If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.
Solution 3:
Solution 3.4
6+2 2
𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑜𝑓 7 𝑜𝑟 11 ) = = =0.222
36 9
Sampling an individual from a population is a
probability experiment. The population is the sample
space and members of the population are equally likely
outcomes.
Example 3.5:
There are 10,000 families in a certain town categorized
as follows:
Sampling from Own a house Own a condo Rent a house Rent an apartment
a Population 4753 1478 912 2857
uses when the experiment is repeated many time regular patterns are
formed
uses even if each outcome of an event is not equally likely to occur
Probability is based on observations obtained from probability experiment
The law of large numbers says that if we repeat a probability experiment
Empirical / again and again (large number of times), then the relative frequency of a
particular outcome (an event) occurs tends to approach the theoretical
Statistical (actual) probability.
Approach Conduct (or observe) a probability experiment, and count the number of
times event A actually occurs. Based on these actual results, P(A) is
approximated as follows:
Empirical probability
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1. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) +𝑃 ( 𝐴′ )=1
2. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ′ )=1 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴)
Probability of 3. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴′)
Complementary
Event
Example 3.9: 1010 United States adults were surveyed
and 202 of them were smokers
202
𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟 )=
1010
=0.2 𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟 ′ )=1 − 0.2=0.8
30
Independent Example: Roll a die and toss a coin. The outcome of the
roll of the die does not affect the probability of the coin
and Dependent landing on heads these two events are independent.
Event
We can use conditional probabilities to determine
whether events are independent.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of
the events does not affect the probability of the
occurrence of the other event.
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Multiplication 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴 )
Rule If events A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )
This simplified rule can be extended to any number of independe
events.
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Exercise 3.5 iii. A father having hazel eyes and a daughter having hazel eyes.
Dependent
iv. Not putting money in a parking meter and getting a parking
ticket.
Independent
v. Rolling a six-sided die and then rolling the die a second time so
that the sum of the two rolls is five.
Independent
vi. A ball numbered from 1 through 52 is selected from a bin,
replaced, and then a second numbered ball is selected from the
bin. Independent
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Exercise 3.6 iii. Find the probability that a randomly selected family is taking a
summer vacation this year, given that they own a computer.
iv. Find the probability that a randomly selected family is taking a
summer vacation this year and owns a computer.
v. Are the events “owning a computer” and “taking a summer
vacation this year” independent or dependent events? Explain .
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Mutually
Exclusive
Event
52
Mutually exclusive
Example 3.14
b) Roll a die. Find the probability of rolling a number
less than 3 or rolling and odd number. (0.667)
55
A blood bank catalogues the types of blood including positive or
negative Rh-factor, given by donors during the last five days. The
number of donors who gave each blood type is shown in the table. A
donor is selected at random. Find the probability that the donor has
a) type O or type A blood. (0.851)
b) type B blood or is Rh-negative. (0.249)
Negative 28 25 8 4 65