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Chapter 2-1
Chapter 2-1
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Why do we need to measure
national income?
Because, we can compare sizes of different
economies. This helps to compare the level of
economic development of different economies.
Because, it gives us idea about the productive
capacity of the economy.
Because, it helps the policy makers to set policy
targets aiming at attaining certain level of
economic growth.
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Methods to measure national income
There are three approaches to measure national
income:
1. Product approach
2. Income approach and
3. Expenditure approach
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The expenditure approach
Measures the economic activity by adding
the amount spent by all ultimate users of
output.
How do we define the ultimate user?
Ultimate users are those who finally
consume a finished product. Usually the
household.
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Equivalence of the three approaches
Orange Co.
Wages paid to workers 15000
Taxes paid to govt. 5000
Revenue received from the sales of oranges 35000
Oranges sold to public 10000
Oranges sold to Juice Co. 25000
Juice Co.
Wages paid to workers 10000
Taxes paid to govt. 2000
Oranges purchased from Orange Co. 25000
Revenue received from sales of orange juice 40000
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The product approach
Value added by the Orange Co. 35000
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Fundamental Identity
Total production = Total income = Total expenditure
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
the most popular aggregate
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the
income and expenditures of an economy.
It is the total market value of all final goods and services
newly produced within a country in a given period of
time.
Please notice the three important words-
Market value
Final goods and services and
Newly produced
Within a country
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Market value
Goods and services are counted in GDP at their market values.
Some goods are not marketed. What do we do with them?
In Bangladesh officially we do not try to estimate them. We just
ignore them. If it were possible to incorporate those items in
the official estimates, our GDP would rise to a higher level.
Example: Homemaking, child rearing.
What about services like defense, education etc. provided by
the govt.?
As there is no market value for these services, we do not
have any idea about the value addition. Therefore, we
calculate those at their cost of production.
What about the underground economy?
Underground economy arising out of hiding legal activities, and
Underground economy arising out of hiding illegal activity
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Newly produced goods and services
We measure only current economic activity. Not
activities of the past periods.
If anything is sold and bought that is not produced in
the current period, we do not include them in the
calculation of GDP.
Suppose, a car sales agent sells a used car today. The
car was produced in the previous period. Do we
include the sales into GDP? Do we include the service
of the sales agent into GDP?
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Final goods and services
Goods can be of two types: intermediate or final.
Intermediate goods and services are those used up in the production of other
goods and services in the same period that they themselves were produced.
If potato produced and then stored in a cold storage during the previous year is
used to produce potato chips in the current year, we shall not consider these
potatoes as intermediate goods.
How shall we classify capital goods? Capital goods are used to produce other
goods. But these are not natural resources. Capital goods are considered final
goods.
How shall we classify inventories? Unsold finished or unused intermediate
items. Inventory investment is treated as final goods.
How shall we count natural gas that we explore and use in Bangladesh? Shall we
treat natural resources as inventories? No, we do not treat natural resources as
inventories. When we procure natural resources we just add the value of the
resource with GDP.
How shall we adjust the cost of pollution with GDP? We should have deducted
the cost. However, in practice we cannot determine the cost and therefore do
nothing.
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The expenditure approach
Four major categories of expenditures are added
to get GDP:
Y = C + I + G + (X – M)
Where, Y is GDP, C is consumption, I is
investment, G is government spending, X is
export and M is import. The part- (X – M) is
called net export (NX).
This equation is referred as Income-Expenditure
identity.
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Expenditure approach continued
Consumption: Spending of domestic households on final
goods and services, including those produced abroad.
Investment: Includes both spending for new capital
goods (fixed investments) and inventory investment. Like
consumption, I includes spending on foreign produced
goods.
Shall we include investment in the stock market in I?
Government Spending: Includes government’s spending
on currently produced goods and services. Like C and I, G
includes spending on foreign goods.
Shall we include transfer payments (such as social security
schemes for the poor) made by the government into
government spending?
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Expenditure approach continued
Net Export = Export – import = X – M
Why do we add export in the measurement of GDP?
Because- export means foreigners spend on goods that are
produced in our country.
If foreigners purchase intermediate goods from our
country and use those to produce a final product in their
country, shall we include this sales in our GDP?
Why do we subtract import in the measurement of GDP?
Because, it ensures that total spending reflects spending only
on output produced in the country. Imports are produced
abroad and are already included in C, I and G. If we do not
subtract it, then it means we are including products in the
calculation of GDP that are not produced in the country.
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Income approach
It calculates GDP by adding the incomes received by producers,
including profits, and taxes paid to the government.
Key part of the income approach is a concept known as “National
Income.”
National Income is the sum of five broad category of income. These are-
compensation of employees,
proprietor’s income,
rental income of persons,
corporate profits and
net interest.
From national income taxes are paid to the government, which is
income for the government. If we add this income to the national
income we get Net National Product.
If we add depreciation to net national product we get Gross National
Product(GNP).
GNP= NNP + Depreciation.
Subtracting Net Factor Payment with GNP we get GDP.
GDP = GNP-NFP.
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Income approach continued
A Compensation of employees
B Proprietor’s income
C Rental income
D Corporate profits
E Net interest
F National income (A+B+C+D+E)
G Indirect business taxes and other small items
H Net National Product (F+G)
I Consumption of fixed capital (depreciation)
J Gross National Product (H+I)
K Net factor income (income paid to domestic factors of production by
the rest of the world – income paid to foreign factors of production by
the domestic economy)
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Note: Savings and wealth
To assess economic condition, current income would be a good
indicator. However, current income might not always give the
right information about the real economic condition. Why? See
examples below.
For example, a retired person may not have any current income
but might have millions of dollars as an assets. On the other
hand, a fresh graduate may have taka 40,000 per month income
as well as heavy debt left over from his student life.
Therefore, to assess the economic condition of an individual or
a household we need to know current income as well as total
assets and liabilities owned by that person or household.
Similarly, the economic condition of the entire nation depends
not only current income but also its total wealth (assets –
liabilities). This is what we call “national wealth.”
An important determinant of national wealth is the rate of
SAVINGS
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Savings of the nation
Private Savings = PDI – consumption
Private savings = Y – (T – TR – INT) + NFP – C
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Note: Nominal GDP
So far, we have calculated GDP by determining values of goods
and services using current market price. When we use current
market price to determine the value of GDP, we call it nominal
GDP.
But looking at nominal GDP may give us wrong picture about
economic condition of a country.
Consider the following example:
Product Year 1 Year 1 GDP of Year 2 Year 2 GDP of
price quantity year 1 price quantity year 2
Rice 30 100 3000 40 100 4000
If we look at the nominal value of the GDP we may have the idea that
GDP has increased by 1000 Taka. However, this is not right. Why?
Because our real production did not increase.
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Note: Real GDP
To overcome the problem of nominal GDP, we use fixed
prices for the goods and services produced in every period.
These fixed prices are selected from a year in which price
were relatively stable and everything else about the
economy was normal.
This year is called the “base year” and these prices are
called “ base year prices.
In the previous table if we use year 1 price as base year
price the we can see that GDP does not change in year 2.
GDP, thus calculated using a base year price, is called real
GDP.
Real GDP gives us actual changes in the production of
physical goods and services.
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Use of nominal and real GDP
We use nominal and real GDP to construct price indexes
that reflect changes in the price level.
This gives us idea about INFLATION.
GDP Deflator and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are two of
such indexes.
GDP deflator is used to measure change in the prices of all
goods and services of the country.
On the other hand, CPI is used to measure changes in
price only for the goods and services that are important
for the consumers. Therefore, in calculation of CPI only a
limited number of goods and services are considered.
GDP deflator = (nominal GDP / real GDP) X 100
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Note: CPI may overstate cost of living
index
Although CPI is widely used to measure inflation and cost of
living, it may overstate the cost of living on two grounds.
Example 1: if a new model of air cooler arrives in the market but
with a 10% higher price, the CPI will record the price increase.
However, if that 10% price increase is for 10% more efficient use of
energy then cost of living will not change. Yet, CPI will note
inflation. This called quality adjustment bias.
Example 2: If consumers like bread and rice equally and if both
these items are included in CPI, then increase of price of any one
of these items will increase CPI. However, the consumers will
switch to the product having the same price and therefore their
living standard will not change. This is called substitution bias.
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