GLOBAL

MEGATRENDS
Impacting Public Safety and Security

Dean Danny Araneta Cabulay

Resource Person
 PRESENTATION OUTLINE

October 24 October 25 October 26

• Scarcity of
• Population • Technology Resources
Dynamics • Globalization and • Urbanization and
• People Economic Power Industrialization
Empowerment Shift
• Peace and
• Climate Change Security
 PEACE AND SECURITY

• Peace and Security

• Top 5 Trends
• Impact on Public Safety and Security
 Peace and Security
• The concept of peace and security are closely linked.
• Based on the UN papers, the ultimate aim is to save future
generations from experiencing harsh conditions arising
from armed conflict, political persecution, high rate of
criminality, human rights abuses, and deplorable living
conditions.
• It requires international cooperation, national commitment
and stringent local government competencies to make the
goals of having a peaceful and secure society a reality.
 Five Elements of Peace
• Order (Self-Discipline)
• Truth (Integrity)
• Justice (Respect for the Law)
• Freedom (Responsibility)
• Understanding (Dialogue)
MG#61: Rise of Radicalism and Extremism
• Militant organizations will consolidate the forces by more intensive
recruitment of new members, foreign-funded covert training, and well-planned
attacks on strategic targets
• Open foreign policies and lifting of travel restrictions paves the way to
infiltration of undesirable aliens who may sow illegal activities
• Controversial policies not addressed by the government well could trigger
further radicalism
Impact: Peace talks are ideal and try to make the
dialogue fruitful but once it falls apart, other measures may
be considered. Proactive measures can be espoused to
prevent recruitment in campuses & barrios.
 MG#62: Intelligence Activities
• Superpowers will intensify all intelligence activities with the perceived
enemy states and allies.
• Russia, North Korea, Australia, China, and the US have recently caught
spies, prosecuted and jailed them.
• Every government has a budget for intelligence activities which may be
utilized for diverse purposes.

Impact: The Philippines is lagging when it comes to this

type of development and is dependent on information from
foreign counterparts (Interpol, CIA, FBI, etc.).
 MG#63: Growing Tensions at Sea
• The South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) has witnessed growing tensions
with the deployment of US destroyer warships, the detaining of a Chinese
vessel by Malaysia, Vietnamese vessel sunk from China, Japan sends 3
vessels for anti-submarine drills, US submarines clash with Chinese Coast
Guard, etc.).
• This affects Philippine interests in the disputed islands.

Impact: The Philippine Coast Guard will be definitely on

heightened alert due to the latest developments. The
national government has to continue to exercise diplomacy
with all key players in the WPS.
 MG#64: Predicted Hotspots
• Armed conflict is predicted to erupt any time between 2020 and 2023 in the
following countries: Afghanistan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Libya,
US-North Korea, Ukraine, Venezuela, India-Pakistan (Kashmir), US-Iran-
Israel (Persian Gulf).

Impact: The Philippines is predicted to have a generally

peaceful election and transfer of power in 2022. But prior
to 2022, ISIS and ASG would most likely attempt to do a
repeat of the Davao and Jolo bombing.
 MG#65: Nuclear Disarmament
• Japan and Austria have initiated dialogues on nuclear disarmament as they realize
the potential damage to humanity if countries continue to harness and develop
nuclear weapon capabilities.
• China is currently beefing up its cyber and nuclear capabilities based on recent
reports.
• The US vows to modernize its military facilities and believes they won’t even use the
nuclear weapons.

Impact: With the election of a new US president, it is likely

that this agenda will prosper even more. Many countries
with nuclear capabilities have already vowed support to
dismantle all weapons of mass destruction.
Q&A
 FINAL EXAM: ESSAY
• Write a brief essay (70 to 80 words only, 2-3
paragraphs) answering the following questions:
• Which megatrend did you find most interesting?
• How does it affect your work or career?
• In what way will it be beneficial to your organization?

Deadline: August 11, 2022 6pm

End of Part 8