Cognitive Bias Rokofsky

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Cognitive Biases & Critical Thinking

By Howard Rokofsky
howard@rokofsky.com
www.rokofsky.com
System 1 System 2

24 X 7 = ?
MISCONCEPTION: You are a rational, logical being
who sees the world as it really is.

TRUTH: You are as deluded as the rest of us


Cognitive biases
 patterns of thought and behavior
 keep you confident in your own perceptions
 lead to poor choices, wrong judgments
 are predictable

The big daddy: confirmation bias


5
 Basketball
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
 Door
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWSxSQsspiQ
3 Main Categories of Cognitive Bias

Heuristics
Logical fallacies
Apophenia  
Priming
THE MISCONCEPTION: You know when you are
being influenced and how it affects your
behavior.
THE TRUTH: You are unaware of the constant
nudges you receive from ideas in the
unconscious mind.
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Confirmation Bias
THE MISCONCEPTION: Your opinions are the
result of years of rational, objective analysis.

THE TRUTH: Your opinions are the result of years of


focusing on information that confirmed what you
already believed (+ ignoring information that
challenged your beliefs).
The Availability Heuristic
THE MISCONCEPTION: You understand how the world
works, based on statistics and facts culled from many
examples.

THE TRUTH: You are far more likely to believe something


is commonplace if you can find just one example of it,
and you are far less likely to believe in something you’ve
never seen or heard of before.

Do more words begin with “R” or have “R” as the third letter?
The Bystander Effect
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Brand Loyalty
Halo effect
The Straw Man Fallacy
The Just-World Fallacy
Projection Bias
Endowment effect
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Hyperbolic discounting
The Spotlight Effect
Conformity
Learned Helplessness
The Anchoring Effect
Availability Bias
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Consistency Bias
Hindsight bias
Loss Aversion
Pareidolia
The anatomy of critical thinking

Step 1: Know your environment and identify the core problem

Step 2: Do your own research and ask questions

Step 3: Identify biases

Step 4: Consider the implications

Step 5: Think for yourself


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