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Manpower planning
Presentation Done by: Abdul Razeq Rahimi

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
By the end of this session, you must have learnt and understood: the concept and meaning of man power planning. Process of planning Different techniques for forcasting.

Definition of Manpower planning

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1. According to Coleman, human resource or manpower planning is the process of determining manpower requirements and the means for meeting those requirement in order to carry out the integrated plan of the organization.

Definition of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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2. According to E.W. Uetter, human resource planning is a process by which an organization should move from its current manpower position to its desired manpower position.

Objective of Manpower Planning

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Through planning, management strives to have the right number and right kind of people at the right place at the right time, doing things which result in both the organization and the individual receiving maximum long-run benefit.

Manpower Planning A Prelude

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It is only after manpower planning that HRM department can initiate a recruitment and selection process. HRP is a sub-system in the total organizational planning.

Need for Human Resource Planning

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Every organization has to plan for Human Resource due to: 1. Shortage of certain categories of employees and /or variety of skills despite the presence of general category employees.

Need for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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2. The rapid changes in technology, marketing, management etc., and the consequent need for new skills and new categories employees.

Need for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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3. The changes in organization design and structure affecting manpower demand.

Need for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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4. The demographic changes like the changing profile of the workforce in terms of age, sex, education etc.

Need for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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5. The government policies with respect to reservation, child labour, working conditions etc.

Need for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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6. The labour laws affecting the demand for and supply of labour. 7. Pressure from trade unions, politicians, sons of soil. 8. Introduction of computers, robots etc.

Manpower Forecasting
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Manpower forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity and quality of people required.

Manpower Forecasting (contd..)

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The basis of the forecast must be the annual budget and long-term corporate plan, translated into activity levels for each function and department.

Need for Manpower Forecasting

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1.

Quantify the jobs necessary for producing a given number of goods or offering a given amount of services.

Need for Manpower Forecasting (Contd..)

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2. Determine what staff-mis is desirable in the future. 3. Assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts of the organization so as to avoide unnecessary costs.

Need for Manpower Forecasting (Contd..)

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4. prevent shortage of people where and when they are needed most. 5. Monitor compliance with legal requirements with regard to reservation of jobs.

Objectives of Manpower planning

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the important objectives of manpower planning in an organization are: 1. To recruit and retain human resource of required quantity and quality.

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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2. To meet the needs of the programmes of expansion, diversification etc.

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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3. To foresee the impact of technology on work, existing employees and future human resource requirement.

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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4. To improve the standard, skills, knowledge, ability, discipline etc. 5. To assess the surplus or shortage of human resources and take measures accordingly.

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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6. To minimize imbalance caused due to nonavailability of human resources of tight kind, tight number in tight time and at the right place. 7. To make the best us of human resource

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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8. To estimate the cost of human resources. 9. To foresee the employee turnover and make arrangements for minimizing turnover and filling up offer consequent vacancies.

Objectives of Manpower planning (Contd..)

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To maintain congenial industrial relations by maintaining optimum levels and structure of human resources.

Human Resource Planning Process

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The HR planning process consists of the following steps: 1. Analyzing organization plans.

Human Resource Planning Process (contd..)

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2. Demand forecasting: forecasting the overall human resource requirement in accordance with the organizational plans.

Human Resource Planning Process (contd..)

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3. Supply forecasting: obtaining the data and information about the present quantum of human resource inventory.

Human Resource Planning Process (contd..)

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4. Estimating the net human resource requirements. 5. In case of future deficit, forecast the future supply of human resource from all sources with reference to plans of other companies.

Human Resource Planning Process (contd..)

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6. In case of future surplus, plan for redeployment, retrenchment and lay-off. 7. Plan for recruitment, development and internal mobility if future supply is more than or equal to net human resource requirement.

Human Resource Planning Process (contd..)

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8. Plan to modify or adjust the organizational plan if future supply will be inadequate with reference to future net requirements.

Human Resource Planning

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Three steps to Human Resource Planning. Access current human resources. Determine future needs. Develop a plan to meet those needs.

Tools for Human Resource Planning

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Job analysis
Defines the jobs within the firm and the behaviors necessary to perform those jobs.

Tools for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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Job description A written statement of what a jobholder does, how the job is done, and why it is done.

Tools for Human Resource Planning (Contd..)

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Job specification The minimum acceptable qualifications an incumbent must have to perform a job successfully.

Manpower Forecasting
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1. 2.

The factors on which manpower forecasting depends are: External Factors. Internal Factors.

External Factors
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Competition (foreign and domestic) Economic climate. Laws and regulatory bodies. Changes in technology. Social factors.

Internal Factors
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Budget constraints Production levels New products and services Organizational structure Employee separations

Methods or Techniques of Manpower Forecasting

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1. 2. 3.

The organization generally follow more than one technique. The technique are Managerial judgment Ration-trend analysis Word study techniques

Methods or Techniques of Manpower Forecasting (Contd..)

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4. Delphi technique. 5. Flow models. 6. Other techniques of forecasting.

Managerial judgment
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Most of the small-scale and unorganized industries cannot have systematic data-banks for manpower information and job analysis. Such organizations resort to the managerialjudgment approach.

Managerial Judgment (contd..)

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In this method, the manager or supervisor who is well- acquainted with workload, efficiency and ability of employees, thinks about their future workload, future capabilities of employees and decides on the number and type of human resources required.

Ratio-trend Analysis
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In this method, the ratios are calculated, for the past data rlating to number of employees of each category and production level and direct employees and indirect employees.

Ratio-trend Analysis (Contd..)

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Future production levels, sales level, activity/work load are estimated with an allowance for changes in organization methods and jobs.

Ratio-trend Analysis (Contd..)

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Future ratios are also estimated when there are changes to come in organization and human resources. Then, future resource is calculated on the basis of established ratios.

Work Study Techniques

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These techniques are more suitable where the volumes of work are easily measurable.

Work Study Techniques (Contd..)

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In this method, total production activities in terms of clear units are estimated in an year. Man-hours required to produce/perform each unit are calculated.

Work Study Techniques (Contd..)

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Work ability of each employee is estimated in terms of manpower after giving due weightage to absenteeism, rest etc. Then required number of employees is calculated.

Work Study Techniques (Contd..)

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Work study techniques for direct workers can be combined with ratio-trend analysis to forecast for indirect workers, establishing the ratio between the two categories. the same logic can be extended to any other category of employees.

Delphi Technique
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Named after the ancient Greek oracle at the city of Delphi. The Delphi technique is a method of forecasting personnel needs.

Delphi Technique (Contd..)

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It solicits estimates of personnel needs from a group of experts, usually managers. The HRP experts act as intermediaries, summarize the various responses and report the findings back to the experts.

Delphi Technique (Contd..)

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The experts are surveyed again after they receive this feedback. Summaries and survey are repeated until the experts opinions begin to congerge.

Delphi Technique (Contd..)

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The agreement reached is the forecast of the personnel needs. The distinguishing feature of the Delphi technique is the absence of interaction among experts.

Flow Models
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Flow models are frequently associated with forecasting personnel needs. The simplest one is called the Markov model.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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In this technique, the forecasters will 1. Determine the time that should be covered. Shorter length of time are generally more accurate than longer ones.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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However, the time horizon depends on the length of the HR plan which, in turn, is determined by the strategic plan of the organization.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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2. Establish categories, also called states, to which employees can be assigned. These categories must not overlap and must take into account every possible category to which an individual can be assigned.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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3.Count annual movements (also called flows) among states for several time periods. These states are defined as absorbing or nonabsorbing states.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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Losses include death or disability absences, resignations and retirements.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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4. Estimate the probability of transition from one state to another based on past trends. Demand is a function of replacing those who make a transition.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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Markov Analysis is advantageous because it makes sense to decision-makers. They can easily understand its underlying assumption. Likely to accept results.

Flow Models (Contd..)

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a)

b)

Disadvantages: Heavy reliance on past data, which may not be accurate in periods of turbulent change. Accuracy in forecast about individuals is sacrificed to achieve accuracy across groups.

Other Techniques
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1.

New venture analysis New venture analysis will be useful when new ventures contemplate employment planning.

New Venture Analysis

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This technique requires planners to estimate HR needs in line with companies that perform similar operations.

New Venture Analysis (Contd..)

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For example: A petroleum company that plans to open a coal mine estimates its future employment needs by determining levels of other coal mines.

Other Techniques
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Judgmental Methods: o Use intentions and opinions as data.  Intention studies-how people say they will act.

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Surveys of opinions. Jury of executive opinion.

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Projective Methods Start with informed ideas and build on them. Brainstorming  Groups focus intensively on given problem.

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Generates many ideas rapidly No evaluation until idea generation is completed Scenario construction

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Extrapolation Method:
Project
 Time

past and/or current trends into future.

series analysis.

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Causal Methods: Econometric methods. Segmentation methods.

Other Techniques (Contd..)

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Bootstrapping Methods:
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an explicit model from the judgmental forecast of an individual to attain more consistent performance.

Summary
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So far, we have seen:

concept of man power planning. Planning steps. Different techniques for forecasting.
The

Thank you
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