Case Study: Mitigating Pakistan’s

Overloaded Transformers
RE-ENERGISING THE OVERLOADED TRANSFORMERS
Ian Baring-Gould | November 2019
Pakistan Transformer Overloading Study
RE-ENERGISING THE OVERLOADED TRANSFORMERS

Ian Baring-Gould | November 2019

2
Summary
• Background
• Purpose
• Electric Power System: Overview
• Power Transformer : Example Case Study
• Methodology: System Sizing
• Desktop Design: Openwind | Helioscope
• Benefits/Conclusions

3
 Background: Regional Transformer Study

Study Proposal: Mitigating Pakistan’s Overloaded Transformers ( February 2019)

October 2018 : Total Number# 136, Stations 71

47 (Overloaded Transformers)
Transformer: Overloading and Loss of Life
• Ambient temperature
• Hot-spot temperature (h)
• % of Insulation life
=A.
• Per Unit Life
=C

Source: ANSI Appendix C5.92-1962

Regional Transformer Case Study
QESCO: Load Demand (%) Peak Load > 100%: Top Marked
80
9

70 69 8
8

60 7

6
50 6
No of Transformers

5
40

4
30
3
3

20 17
2
12
10 7
5 5 5 1
3 3 3 3 3
1
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0

0
12

16

24

26
10

14

18

20

22

Hour of Day
% Overloading

Fig A: 47 transformers >100% overloaded Fig B: same 47 transformers overloaded/hr. of day

Regional Transformer Case Study
Preliminary Analysis: Assets at Risks (just in this region)

• Assuming $675,000 for an average transformer X 47 (Overloaded Transformers)

• Equates to $470,570/year of transformer degradation
– Requiring unnecessary early replacements
• Equates to 163 hours/year* of power interruptions
– Reliability of service suffers

* IEC 60076-7, (2005) Loading Guide for Oil-immersed Power Transformers.

Purpose
• Problem/Challenge: chronic over loading of transformers will:
o Reduce transformer life
o Increase both new capital expenditures and O&M
o Reduce power reliability

• Proposed Analysis/Strategy: preliminary quantification of benefits

when considering the deployment of distributed RE generation at
strategic locations on the transmission grid (i.e. over loaded
transformers)? Analyzing where the strongest RE resources overlap
with the most over loaded substations could result in opportunities for:
o Improving/normal transformer life
o Delaying capital/O&M expenditures
o Improving power reliability

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Electric Power System: Overview

Source: Ashfaq and Ianakiev RSER 97(2018)

9
Electric Power System: Overview

Year 2017

Year 2018

https://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/energy.2017.4.691/fulltext.html
Methodology: Case Study
• Site Selection: QUESCO -> Transformer stations
• HOMER and REopt optimization: System Sizing
– Excess load over (90% nameplate capacity)
• Desktop design using Openwind and Helioscope
• Next iterations on real load data: Data request on progress
– Local constraints, land availability
– Environmental consideration – seasonal flash flood zone
• Time series analysis – for effectiveness of design
• Overload mitigate – metrics and comparison of various
scenarios.
• Detailed integration analysis – TBD
Case Study Sites
• Khanozai: 132 KV Station
• Two 20 MVA Transformers loaded over 150%
• Muslim Bagh: 132 KV Stations
• One Transformer loaded above 125%

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Case Study: 132 KV Khanozai
• Station: Khanozai; Two transformers loaded above 150 %
• Transformer: T-2, Make: PEL, Capacity: 20 MVA, 174 %
• Load Type: Community or Commercial Type (Assumed)
• Time of overload: 11:00 am (October 2018)
• Design load: Excess load over 90% of Transformer capacity
• Excess Peak Load = 16.8 MW
Khanozai: 132 KV Station

I)
P hase
Site (
rm
in d Fa
W

Solar Farm Site (Phase I)

RE Resource
Average of GHI WSpeed
1000 10

Wind Speed (m/s)

800 8
GHI(W/m^2)

600 6
400 4
200 2
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Hour of the Day
System Sizing: Khanozai
• Threshold for design load = 90% of nameplate capacity
 T-1 (HEC): 20/26 MVA- 61% Overload = 14.2 MW
 T-2(PEL): 20/26 MVA - 74% Overload = 16.8 MW
• Initial design: based on summary of October 2018
o 10 Wind Turbine Generators: GE 1.5 MW sle
o 8 MWp Solar PV: Two Phases I and II
o 2 MWh/ 1MW BESS: Energy Storage

• This study focus only on one transformer: T-2 (PEL)

• Quantify transformer load mitigation: Does it make sense?
– Mitigate overloading
– Economics works for all stakeholders
RE Resources and overloading period: Khanozai

RE Resource and Load

2000 9

1800 8
1600 7
Load (kW)| GHI(W/m^2)

1400
6

Wind Speed (m/s)

1200
5
1000
4
800
3
600

400 2

200 1

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Hour of the Day

Load Commercial Load Community Average of GHI WSpeed

Load scaled to 1000 kW average to fit into the chart.

Excess Load Distribution

Excess Load Distribution: Khanozai Excess Load: Time of the Day

Community Load Commercial Load Community Load Commercial Load

400 180
353
350 160

300 282 140

120
250
# of Hours/ year

# of Hours/Year
225
100
200 184 173
143 80
150
111
109 60
98
100 84
40
50 39
25
4 2 20
0
0.5 MW 1 MW 2 MW 5 MW 10 MW 15 MW 16.8 0
MW 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
System Sizing: 132 KV Khanozai: T-2(PEL)
• System Size: Phase I
– 5 x 1.5 MW GE sle
– 3.8 MWp Solar
– 1 x 1MW/2MWh Storage

• Design philosophy
o Wind Speed : 6.05 m/s @50m
and 6.51 @ 65m Hub Height – Mitigate Overloading

o Solar DNI: 5.4 kWh/m2/day – RE System pay for itself:

Return Investment
o Sellback rate Cases:
 0.00, 0.02 and 0.04 $/kWh
o Resource Database
o MERRA-2
o NSRDB SUNY
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Desktop Design: Wind Farm: 10 WTG
Windfarm Output and Wind Turbine

Wind Farm optimization Wind Turbine

• Gross Energy [GWh] 43.59 • GE 1.5 - 77 Wind Turbine
• Net Energy [GWh] 42.25 • Hub Height: 65 m
• Capacity Factor [%] 32.14 • Rotor blade: 37 m

GE-1.5/77 sle turbine at the NREL Flatirons Campus.

Photo credit: Dennis Schroeder/NREL (image gallery number 25872).
Desktop Design: Solar PV Array Layout

• Phase I - Total Area 89550 m2

• Nameplate: 3.81 MWp (Phase 1)
• Canadian Solar 345 W (#11,040)
• Frame: 4 x 10 | # 276 |Height 2.5 ft
• Tilt 30 | Azimuth 180
• 1773 kWh/kWp
Khanozai Station
• Annual Energy: 6.75 GWh
Single Line Diagram: Grid Connection

Combiner Poles: 12
String size: 5 – 19
DC Nameplate: 3.81 MW
AC Nameplate: 3.06 MW
Storage: DES at Medium voltage
• Peak Shaving
• Load shifting
• Frequency regulation
• Voltage regulation
• Back-up power

• Distribution upgrade
investment deferral

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Result for Khanozai: T-2 (PEL)
• Load Type: Community (Assumed)
– Overloaded for 34.16 days (820 hours) a year: Business-As-Usual
– RE with no storage 16.37 days (393 hours) a year
– RE with storage (1MW/2MWh) 9.87 days (237 hours) a year
• Life Saving: RE-energized Power Transformer
– Decreased overloading and its intensity
– % Loss of life (before): 2.66/year; % Loss of life (after): 0.34/year
– Enhance life over lifetime (20 years) : 46.4%  9.28 years
• Economics: Preliminary COE ~ $ 0.107
– Asymptotic nature: A balance between storage size and economics
– Value addition from saving the asset at risk and energy services.

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Opportunity and challenges
• Prescreening of one DISCO:
Quetta AEB completed, but there
are a large numbers of
transformers across Pakistan,
specifically in locations with known
strong solar and wind resources
• Potentials and opportunities at
other DISCOs/AEBs
• Local counterpart will take a lead
on to explore opportunities for
Sindh Province: wind corridor; The
Karachi Electric (K-Electric) and
others
• Pros and cons of “RE-energising
the Overloaded Transformers”
Benefits/Conclusions
• 100’s of Millions of dollars of assets are at risk by the continued
overloading of Pakistan’s transformers. Benefits of mitigating this
challenge are:
 Delay capital expenditures (i.e. transformer replacements) by years (in
some cases a decade)
 RE Investing in strategic locations will save millions of dollars
 Delay O&M annual expenditures
 Improve Reliability of the transmission system by:

 Improved up-time of substations

 Deployment of distributed generation near load

 Increased Clean RE power generation

 Predictable power pricing within the rate-making mix
 Diversifying generation mix
Data Request on Progress
• Transformer details
Data Wishlist
• Need site specific information
• LDIP: Load data improvement project
• Feeder details information
Type of the Feeder
• Land availability • Feeder details 1 Line Configuration Data
Initial screening…additional considerations could include • Transformer details 2 Line Segment Data
3 Transformer Data
• Time series data
• Capital cost distinctions (who is paying for the 4 Capacitor Data
improvements – NTDC or IPP developers) 5 Regulator Data
6 Spot Load Data
• Additional benefits of distributed generation 7 Distributed Load
(power smoothing)
• Peak Saving | Rate making (alternative cost
structures for power sales)
• Load growth and planned infrastructure Input Load Losses
improvements Phase A /B/C Total Losses/phase
DateTime kW kVAr kVA PF kW kVAr kVA PF kVAr kVA PF kW KVAr kVA
1/1/2018 1:00
1/1/2018 2:00
Ian Baring-Gould
Program Manager
Ian.Baring-gould@nrel.gov | 303-384-7021

NREL is a national laboratory of the

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, operated by the Alliance for
Sustainable Energy, LLC. 28
Supporting Slides

NREL is a national laboratory of the

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, operated by the Alliance for
Sustainable Energy, LLC. 29
RE Resource: Quetta, Baluchistan
• Site: Quetta (30 16’ 17.71"N, 66 56’ 12.37"E ; 1582 m ASL)
• Province: Baluchistan
• Host: Baluchistan University of Information, Technology,
Engineering and Management Sciences; BUITEMS
• Mast Height: 67 m
 Transformer Life and Capital Outlays
• Model: Newton’s Law of Cooling – First order model

: Ambient Temperature; Characteristic temp = f(HST); HST: Hot-spot temperature;

= heat transfer coefficient; : Effective surface area.

• Cost assumption: $675,000 (132/11, 20 MVA)

• Estimate of total loss of expected life: 20 years

Template for Analysis: Preliminary

HEC 31.5/40 MVA Tref(Aging) 383 C % Loss of Life 0.0012
Capacity 10 MW Irated10 515.4913 m (Oil) 0.8 Time 7.00
20 MW Irated20 1030.983 FEAA -> 0.30
DateTime Hour Load (MW) Amps Volts PF % Loading Loss(kW) ATemp( C) TOT HST FAA D t (hours)
1/31/2019 16:15 16 10.75 581 11.2 96 108% 98.64 9.1 60.47 104.07 0.54 0.25
1/31/2019 16:00 16 10.99 595 11.2 97 110% 99.26 9.1 60.80 106.09 0.67 0.25
1/31/2019 15:45 15 10.37 557 11.2 97 104% 97.63 9.5 60.35 101.10 0.39 0.25
1/31/2019 15:30 15 8.06 438 11.2 97 81% 90.54 9.5 56.65 84.39 0.06 0.25

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Regional Transformer Case Study
Power Transformer:
QESCO Fleet Subset

Total Transformer Sample: 136, (Substations 71)

Conclusion
• Millions of dollar of asset at risk by the overloading of transformer
• Status quo leads to reduced life expectancy and loss of
economic value which will likely get worse as the load increases
which will require a large repair, maintenance and replacement
budget that will be carried by NTDC or the DISCO’s
• Deploying distributed
wind, solar and A typical day in Karachi, Mehran
potential storage
technologies at
locations close to the
transformer stations
can reduce loading on
these transformers and
thus extend their lives,
largely at no cost to
GoP