Decision Making and Problem Solving

Question!
A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage come to the edge of a river they wish to cross. There is a boat at the rivers edge, but of course, only the farmer can row. The boat can only handle one animal/item in addition to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goat is left alone with the cabbage, the goat will eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do to get across the river with all his possessions?

Decision Making
Decision Making is choosing between alternative courses of action No decision is also a decision

What is a Problem?
The Word Problem originates from ancient Greek language proballo that means to put ahead and to propose

What is a Problem?
The difference between two situations or states:
What is! What should be!
i.e. the Objective or Goal

The WHAT IS State

A Collection of existing conditions requiring change (or elimination) related to a specific area
EXAMPLE: Long line-ups in hospital emergency wards.

The WHAT IS situation is an evidence of a PROBLEMnot the problem itself!

The WHAT SHOULD BE State

Developing a new WHAT IS which will provide the required objective (the WHAT SHOULD BE)

Problem Statement
A written statement expressing clearly the required transition from the WHAT IS to the WHAT SHOULD BE situation within a desired time interval.

Challenge
AGREEMENT on the WHAT IS and WHAT SHOULD BE poses a CHALLENGE!

What CAUSES a Problem?

That which prevents ATTAINMENT of the WHAT SHOULD BE

Problem vs Opportunity
A Problem is not an Obstruction but rather an Opportunity a condition to be reached when a selected objective (WHAT SHOULD BE) is realized.

What is a solution?
An action to permit Realization of the What Should Be Situation

THE PROBLEM = BA
CHALLENGE: SELECTING THE OPTIMUM SOLUTION, PATH S

Set of n possible solutions (n paths)

1 2 S
WHAT IS The Starting Point

WHAT SHOULD BE The Objective

n-1 n

IDEAL SOLUTION PATH S

Optimum Solution
1. Transforms the WHAT IS situation into the WHAT SHOULD BE objective 2. Satisfies the Three-Question Check

Three Questions Check

1. WILL IT: accomplish the "objective"? i.e The What Should Be 2. IS IT: feasible to implement? 3. DOES IT: have a minimum number of "adverse consequences"?

Decision Making
1. 2. 3. Select the Optimum solution for identified problem Make a commitment to carry out optimum solution. Move from the What Is to the What Should Be (the Objective) the the

Problem Solving
Problem Solving is identifying and correcting deviations between what you wanted to happen and what actually happened. In simple terms, it is explaining the difference between what you wanted and what you got.

Problem Solving
Decision Making focuses on selecting an alternative before you do something. Problem Solving focuses on things that go wrong while you are doing something. Since problem solving is concerned with the difference between what you wanted and what you got, it concentrates on finding the deviation. This can be looked at graphically.

Deviation
You begin with a specific goal in mind You get a different result Actual You find the deviation Begin Point of Deviation Analyze and correct the deviation Goal

Decision Making Model

Why are Decisions So Hard?

The four key areas that determine the relative difficulty of a decision are:
1. Structure in general, the more structure, the less information required 2. Cognitive limitations the human mind is limited to handling 5 to 9 distinct pieces of information

Why are Decisions So Hard?

The four key areas that determine the relative difficulty of a decision are:
3. Uncertainty the amount is based on how complete and accurate the information is 4. Alternatives and multiple objectives the selection of one alternative may impede the progress towards a different goal

Simons Model of Problem Solving

Simon proposed a three-phase model of problem solving:
1. Intelligence phase the decision maker looks for indications that a problem exists 2. Design phase alternatives are formulated and analyzed 3. Choice phase one of the alternatives is selected and implemented

Simons Model of Problem Solving

Travelling Salesman Problem

Initial Heuristic Solution

Rule: start at home, go to closest city

Modified Heuristic Solution

Rule: no crossing any connection, no backtracking

Problems and Solutions

Problem well put + Problem well solved

Eg. Messner conquered the top of the mountain.

Problems and Solutions

Problem well put + Problem badly solved

Eg. Titanic

Problems and Solutions

Problem badly put + Problem well solved

Eg. Americas Discovery

Problems and Solutions

Problem badly put + Problem badly solved

Eg. Suicide

Problem Solving vs. DecisionMaking

Problem-solving is a set of activities designed to analyze a situation and find, implement, and evaluate solutions. Decision making is making choices at each step of the problem-solving process.

Problem Solving and Decision Making

Critical Thinking

Critical Thinking: What is it!

Taking yourself (your brain) out of Automatic mode, and putting it into Manual mode Purposeful thought with the objective of creating a result. An impartial way of Analyzing and Evaluating data, statements, and observations. A Process of understanding the relationships between information, a selection of possible decisions, and their corresponding outcomes.

Your Automatic Thinking Mind

It can be very, very helpful

Read the following paragraph:

You mghit tnihk its aaminzg taht you can raed tihs with vrialuty no diluftficuy eevn tuohg the lttres are mxeid up. It trnus out taht all you need is the fsrit and lsat leetrts in the crocert pcale. Tihs is an eaxplme of yuor barin rnuning in aoumtatic mdoe.
But can it sometimes be too helpful?
Did you pick up that though was misspelled and didnt follow the rule?

Your Automatic Thinking Mind

Can it sometimes help too much?

Count every F in the following text

FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS

How many did you count?

Your Automatic Thinking Mind

It makes things up

Critical Thinking
How it makes a difference
It enables you to look at issues differently.
This results in new perspectives and ideas.

It prevents a distorted picture.

Your brain hides information and make things up.

It gives you a framework to Think.

This helps organize and guide your thinking while leveraging and incorporating the thinking of others.

Empty your Bucket

Approach a problem or task as if you know nothing about barriers. You may not know what to do, or how to accomplish it but there IS a solution.
Filled Buckets have no room for Critical Thinking and Creativity They are filled with Bias
Other Departments Conflicting priorities, strategies and projects Lack of resources, time, budget Been there, Done that !!! Filled Buckets Overflow

There Is Always A Way !!!!

Empty Buckets can accommodate anything

Slow Drainage

Responses That Kill Creativity

It cant be done. Weve never done it. Has anyone else tried it? It wont work with us It costs too much. It isnt in the budget. Lets form a committee.

Quotes
Reading furnishes the mind only with materials of knowledge; it is thinking that makes what we read ours.
- John Locke (1632 - 1704)

The human mind once stretched by a new idea never goes back to its original dimensions
- Oliver Wendell Holmes (1809-1894)

Discovery is seeing what everybody else has seen, and thinking what nobody else has thought.
- Albert Szent-Gyorgyi (1893 - 1986)