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A Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision
A Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Vision
World Solar Module Production 1980-2000 (MW) 300 250 Source: Solarbuzz Inc. 200 Off-grid 150 100 50 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 On-grid Consumer indoor
1979 $30/W
Maycock Strategies
10
2002 $3/W
Note: These progress ratios are firm level (not industry wide) studies.
Progress Ratio
Historical
1980 $21.83/W Module Price ($/W) ($2002) 1985 $11.20/W 10
Projected
1990 $6.07/W
1995 $4.90/W
2000 $3.89/W
30
25 Mc-Si CZ-Si 20
15
Year
300
250
100
50
Year
20
18
Efficiency (%)
16
Mc-Si CZ-Si
14
Year
2. 0
2.00
2012 $1.10/W
Mc 1. 0 i i
1.00
0. 0
Year
Historical Projected
1995 $4.90/W
2000 $3.89/W
Silic o n Ro a d ma p Co s t
1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cumulative Production (MW)
Historic l Projected
32
Current
01 1 10 100 1 000 10 000
ener tion C
100 000
cit
1 000 000
Projected OE Projection
W istri ted Generation al e B l Generation al e
W )( a ule Price ( W a W
a W
rrent
Generation a acity
Cumulat
uct
Renewable energy will capture a meaningful share of the Global Energy Market in the next 25 years. Key drivers will be: Falling costs for renewable energy Declining fossil fuel production Increasing energy demand worldwide Environmental concerns
Oil industry consensus: production is will peak between 2004 and 2010
Exaj
3 3 2 2
$2 B $23B $2 B
2 3
2
Year
Thank You Austin Clean Energy Initiative and Best of Luck Making Austin a Center of Clean Energy