Basic Rules for

Probability
Modified by: Ingrid Yvonne A. Madrial, MOE
 General Definition of Probability
• Probability is a measure of uncertainty. The
probability of event A is a numerical measure of
the likelihood of the event’s occurring.
General Probability
The Range of Values
Rules
• The first rule sets the range of values that the
probability measure may take.
• For any event A, the probability P(A) satisfies
0≤P(A)≤1
 General Probability Rules
• When an event cannot occur, its probability is zero. The probability of
the empty set is zero: P(Ø) = 0. In a deck where half the cards are red
and half are black, the probability of drawing a green card is zero
because the set corresponding to that event is the empty set: There
are no green cards.
• Events that are certain to occur have probability 1.00. The probability
of the entire sample space S is equal to 1.00: P(S) = 1.00. If we draw a
card out of a deck, 1 of the 52 cards in the deck will certainly be
drawn, and so the probability of the sample space, the set of all 52
cards, is equal to 1.00.
 Interpretation of a Probability
Within the range of values 0 to 1, the greater
the probability, the more confidence we have in
the occurrence of the event in question. A
probability of 0.95 implies a very high confidence in
the occurrence of the event. A probability of 0.80
implies a high confidence. When the probability is
0.5, the event is as likely to occur as it is not to
occur. When the probability is 0.2, the event is not
very likely to occur. When we assign a probability of
0.05, we believe the event is unlikely to occur, and
so on. The Figure here is an informal aid in
interpreting probability.
Note that probability is a measure that goes
from 0 to 1. In everyday conversation we often
describe probability in less formal terms. For
example, people sometimes talk about odds. If the
odds are 1 to 1, the probability is 1/2; if the odds
are 1 to 2, the probability is 1/3; and so on. Also,
people sometimes say, “The probability is 80
percent.” Mathematically, this probability is 0.80.
The Rule of Complements
Our second rule for probability
defines the probability of the
complement of an event in terms of
the probability of the original event.
Recall that the complement of set A is
denoted by Ā.
As a simple example, if the probability
of rain tomorrow is 0.3, then the
probability of no rain tomorrow must
be 1 - 0.3 = 0.7. If the probability of
drawing an ace is 4/52, then the
probability of the drawn card’s not
being an ace is 1 – 4/52 = 48/52.
The Rule of Unions
• We now state a very important rule,
the rule of unions. The rule of
unions allows us to write the
probability of the union of two
events in terms of the probabilities
of the two events and the
probability of their intersection:
• [The probability of the intersection
of two events P(A Ո B) is called their
joint probability.]
The Rule of Unions
The meaning of this rule is very simple and
intuitive: When we add the probabilities of A
and B, we are measuring, or counting, the
probability of their intersection twice—once
when measuring the relative size of A within the
sample space and once when doing this with B.
Since the relative size, or probability, of the
intersection of the two sets is counted twice, we
subtract it once so that we are left with the true
probability of the union of the two events (refer
to the Figure here). Note that instead of finding
the probability of A B by direct counting, we can
use the rule of unions: We know that the
probability of an ace is 4/52, the probability of a
heart is 13/52, and the probability of their
intersection—the drawn card being the ace of
hearts—is 1/52. Thus, P(A U ♥) 4/52 + 13/52 –
1/52 = 16/52, which is exactly what we find from
direct counting.
The Rule of Unions
• The rule of unions is especially useful when we do not have the
sample space for the union of events but do have the separate
probabilities. For example, suppose your chance of being offered a
certain job is 0.4, your probability of getting another job is 0.5, and
your probability of being offered both jobs (i.e., the intersection) is
0.3. By the rule of unions, your probability of being offered at least
one of the two jobs (their union) is 0.4 + 0.5 - 0.3 = 0.6.
Mutually Exclusive Events

•When the sets corresponding to two

events are disjoint (i.e., have no
intersection), the two events are called
mutually exclusive (see Figure here).
For mutually exclusive events, the
probability of the intersection of the
events is zero. This is so because the
intersection of the events is the empty
set, and we know that the probability of
the empty set Ø is zero.
Mutually
Exclusive
Events
 The end of Part 2

Basic Rules
of Probability
Thank you!