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Topic 3 Bonds Volatility
Topic 3 Bonds Volatility
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Outline
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Bond Price / Yield Relationship
• A fundamental property of a bond is that its price changes in the
opposite direction from the change in the required yield.
• The reason is that the price of the bond is the present value of the
cash flows.
• If we graph the price-yield relationship for any option-free bond, we
will find that it has the “bowed” shape.
Price
Market yield
Holding maturity constant, a rate decrease will raise prices a greater percent
than a corresponding increase in rates will lower prices
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Price-Yield Relationship for a 20-Year 9%
Coupon Bond
20 year 9% semi annual coupon Bond Bond Price / Yield Relationshio
Required Yield PV of 40 coupons PV of Principal Bond Price
Convex (to
5.00 112.16 37.69 149.85 160.00
the origin).
6.00 103.23 31.18 134.41 140.00
See later
Bond Price
100.00
9.00 82.16 17.84 100.00
10.00 76.62 14.86 91.49 80.00
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Bond Price in a Time Path
20 year 9% semi annual coupon Bond at r = 12% Time Path of a Bond
Years Left PV of 40 coupons PV of Principal Bond Price
20.00 67.22 10.37 77.59
19.00 66.29 11.61 77.90
18.00 65.25 13.00 78.25 Time
Years Leftto Ma
17.00 64.08 14.56 78.64 turity
16.00 62.77 16.31 79.08
15.00 61.30 18.27 79.57
20 15 10 5 0
14.00 59.65 20.46 80.12
105
13.00 57.81 22.92 80.73
12.00 55.75 25.67 81.42 100
11.00 53.44 28.75 82.19 95
10.00 50.85 32.20 83.05
9.00 47.95 36.06 84.02 90
8.00 44.71 40.39 85.10 85
7.00 41.07 45.23 86.31
P
r e
ic
6.00 37.00 50.66 87.67 80
5.00 32.44 56.74 89.19 75
4.00 27.34 63.55 90.89
3.00 21.62 71.18 92.79 70
2.00 15.21 79.72 94.93 65
1.00 8.04 89.29 97.32
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0.00 0.00 100.00 100.00 Bond Price
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Bond Price – Time Path to Maturity
Price PAR
Time
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Bond Price – Question
Suppose you are reviewing a price sheet for bonds and see
the following prices. You observe what seems to be several
pricing errors. Without calculating the price of each bond,
indicate which bonds seem to be reported incorrectly, and
explain why. All bonds have a nominal value of 100.
Bond Price CPN (%) Yield (%)
A 90 6 9
B 96 9 8
C 110 8 6
D 105 0 5
E 107 7 9
F 100 6 6
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Bond Price - Volatility
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Bond Value - Different Coupon with Fixed Maturity
Bond Value
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Bond Price Volatility – Maturity Effect
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Bond Price Volatility - Summary
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YTM and Coupon
• Example: A US government bond has semi annual coupon of
• 6 3/8%p.a. maturing in December 2009. Today is 1 Jan 2002.
- The Par Value of the bond is $1,000.
- Coupon payments are made semi-annually (in June 30 and
December 31 cycle).
Since the coupon rate is 6 3/8%pa the payment is $31.875.
- On January 1, 2002 the size and timing of cash flows are:
0 $31.875 $31.875 $31.875 $1031.875
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YTM and Coupon
$1400
1300
1200
Bond Value
1000
800
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
6 3/8
Interest Rate
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Properties of Bond Price Volatility
1. Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite
directions. i.e. an inverse, nonlinear relationship.
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Properties of Bond Price Volatility
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Measuring Bond Price Volatility
• Common measures:
- price value of a basis point (PV01)
- Duration
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Measures of Bond Price Volatility
Price Value of a Basis Point – PV01 (more in later topics)
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Example – PV01 Calculation
• Initial Prices:
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Example – PV01 Calculation
• Initial Prices:
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Bond Price Volatility Example
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Bond Price Volatility Example
• Question: Where would Bond D, which has a coupon rate of 6% and a
maturity of 19 years, fit into this price sensitivity spectrum? (Assume its initial
yield is also 8%.)
Recall -
Initial:
After: PD = (60/8%)[1 – 1/(1.08)19] + 100/(1.08)19 = 807.93
PD = (60/8.5%)[1 – 1/(1.085)19] + 100/(1.085)19 = 768.31
So, percentage change:
Bond D: (768.31 - 807.93) / (807.93) = -4.90% (volatility risk is between B &
C).
How do you observe this from coupon & maturity relationship especially comparing
Bond C and Bond D?
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Measures of Bond Price Volatility
Two definitions of Duration Concept:
Definition1 : The Macaulay duration is one measure of the approximate change in price for a small
change in yield.
n
PVCFt t
D Mac
t 1 P
CFt = Cash Flow at period t (Coupon & Principal)
P = Bond Price; t = period
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Why is Duration Important?
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Measuring Duration (Macaulay, Modified, Dollar)
Macaulay duration is a weighted average of the cash flows for the bond
n
PVCFt t
D Mac CFt = Cash Flow at period t (Coupon & Principal)
t 1 P P = Bond Price; t = period
Example: A bond has 2 years maturity pays a $6 coupon semi annually. The yield
curve is flat at an semi annual interest rate of 10%p.a.
6 6 6 106
P 1
2
3
4
(1.05) (1.05) (1.05) (1.05)
$5.71$5.44 $5.18 $87.21 $103.54
4
PV(CFt) t 5.71x1 5.44x2 5.18x3 87.21x4
D Mac
t 1 P 103.54 103.54 103.54 103.54
0.055 0.105 0.15 3.369 3.68 years (semi annual)
Annual DMac = Semi DMac /2 = -3.68/2 = -1.84 years
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Example: Macaulay Duration Calculation
81.96 695.43
x 4 1,075.82 x5 4.0740
1,075.82
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Macaulay Duration Calculation – A simplified Equation
n
PVCFt t (1 r) 1 r [n(c - r)]
D Mac can be simplified to D MAC
t 1 P r c [(1 r) n - 1] r
c = coupon; r = yield to maturity; N = no. of period
Example: Consider a 2-year coupon bond with a face and redemption value of
$100 and a coupon rate of 10% p.a. payable semiannually and a yield to maturity
of 12% p.a compounded semiannually. Find the Macaulay Duration.
c=5%; r=6%; N=4
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Other Duration Formulas
1. Annuity cashflow:
DMac = ((1+r)/r) - N/((1+r)N -1)
2. Perpetuity cashflow:
DMac = (1+r)/r
DMod = (1/r)
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Uses of Duration
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Duration Application - Estimating Price Changes
ΔP/P
D Mac ; ΔP/P - D Mac Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
Δr
P = Change in Bond Price ΔP -D MAC P
(1 r)
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Duration Application - Estimating Price Changes
- ΔP/P
D Mac ΔP/P - D Mac Δ(r)/(1 r)
Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
(0.1%)
ΔP/P 8.45 0.00768
(1 10%)
ΔP/P - 0.768% % Change due to a change in yield of 0.1%
ΔP -0.768% x $84.63 -$0.650 Price change due to a change in yield of 0.1%
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Macaulay’s Duration - Example
A 5 year bond paying a semi annual coupon of 10%p.a. with a price of
$1000 and a YTM of 10%p.a.
n
PVCFt t
D Mac
t 1 P
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Macaulay’s Duration - Example
A 5 year bond paying a semi annual coupon of 10%p.a. with a price of
$1000 and a YTM of 10%
Time Cashflow PV Factor PV PV x t
1 1/(1 + 10%/2) = 0.952
2 1/(1 + 10%/2)2 = 0.907
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Macaulay’s Duration - Example
A 5 year bond paying a semi annual coupon of 10%p.a. with a price of
$1000 and a YTM of 10%p.a.
(1 r) 1 r [N(c - r)]
DMac = 8107.82/1000 = 8.107 (this is semi annual) D MAC
r c [(1 r) N - 1] r
DMac (annual) = DMac (semiannual) /2 = 4.05 years.
This duration value means if the bond was sold at 4.05 years the investor
will get their money back in PV terms i.e. $1000
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Macaulay’s Duration
• Duration depends on three factors
- Maturity of the bond
- Coupon payments
- Yield to maturity
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Properties of Duration - Maturity
Duration
(as a function of the bond maturity)
10
8
D u r a tio n
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Maturity
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Properties of Duration - Coupon
Duration
(as a function of the coupon rate)
20
18
16
14
D u r a tio n
12
10
0
1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19%
Coupon Rate
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Properties of Duration - YTM
• Duration increases with lower yield to maturity (all others being equal)
Duration
(as a function of the yield)
16
14
12
D u r a t io n
10
Yield
37
Modified Duration
D Mac
D Mod
1 r/n
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Modified Duration
If a bond pays annual coupons (once per year) => n = 1
Then Modified Duration, DMod :
D Mac ΔP/P
D Mod Remember : D Mac
1 r/1 Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
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Example - Modified Duration
10 year semi-annual bond, YTM 10%p.a., DMac is 4.055
This shows that for every 1% movement in interest rates, the bond is this
example would inversely move in price by 3.86%.
The modified duration (DMod) can be used to estimate the % bond price
change (P/P) as interest rates change
ΔP
% ΔBond Price D Mod Δr
P
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Using Modified Duration to calculate PV01
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Dollar ($) Duration
• The Dollar duration ($D) is defined as the product of the Modified
Duration and the bond price (value). It gives the variation in a bond's
dollar value for a small variation in the yield.
ΔP/P
D Mod
Δr Or P = -$D x r
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Portfolio Duration
Consider the following portfolio of semiannual payment bonds.
Face Value Coupon Maturity Yield (s.a.) Market Value Annual Duration
$50 Million 8% 12 yrs 9.62% $44,306,787 7.652 Bond Price = 88.6%
$25 Million 11% 8 yrs 9.38% $27,243,887 5.633 Bond Price = 108.97%
$25 Million 9% 6 yrs 9.10% $24,886,343 4.761 Bond Price = 99.55%
$96,437,017
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Portfolio Duration
Question : What is the duration of a portfolio consisting of 75%
of 1.5 year zero coupon bond and 25% of 30 year zero coupon
bond?
Answer :
The Duration (DMac) of the 1.5 year zero coupon bond is 1.5 and
the Duration (DMac) of the 30 year zero coupon bond is 30.
Portfolio Duration (DMac) = (75% x 1.5) + (25% x 30) = 8.625
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Portfolio Duration - Example
Portfolio
(Annual) Contribution to
Holdings Weight
Duration Portfolio Duration
Bond 1 0% 4.95 0
Bond 2 12.1% 3.44 0.42
Bond 3 44.9% 3.58 1.61
Bond 4 13.9% 5.04 0.7
Bond 5 1.7% 3.16 0.05
Bond 6 27.4% 6.35 1.74
Total 100% 4.52
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Duration Conclusions
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Problems with Duration
• It assumes a straight-line relationship between the changes in bond
price given the change in yield to maturity…however, the actual
relationship is curvilinear…therefore, the greater the change in YTM,
the greater the error in predicted bond price using duration…as can be
seen…
Error from
Bond using duration Current bond
Price only price
Price estimate
$1,200 is good when Bond Price estimated
yield change is by duration
$1,100 small
$1,000
D
P Error from
$900 using duration
only
Y
Yield to Maturity (%)
Y*
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Problems with Duration
Price
Underestimate of Price Increase
When the Yield Falls
Convex Price-Yield
Curve
Yield
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Convexity
The relationship between bond prices and market yields is CONVEX.
250.0
200.0
B o n d P r i c e ($ )
150.0
Convex (to the origin).
100.0
50.0
0.0
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Yield
Convexity means that as the YTM falls from 10% the rate of increase in
the bond price accelerates.
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Convexity
n
Ct t(t 1)/(1 r) t 1 n
Ct t(t 1)
Conv 2
2 t
t 1 P(1 r) P(1 r) t 1 (1 r)
CFt: Cashflow (including coupon & bond value) ; r = yield; t = nth coupon
period; P=bond price
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Calculating a bond’s convexity
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Calculating a bond’s convexity – another example
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Dollar Convexity
• The Dollar Convexity ($Conv) is convexity multiplied by the price
(value). Dollar convexity is one source of error in approximating the dollar
price of a bond generated by change in yield using dollar duration alone.
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Estimate Bond Price through Duration With
Convexity – adjustment
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Bond Price Estimation with Duration and
Convexity
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Bond Price Estimation with Duration and
Convexity
Example
8%, 15 years bond with yield = 10%
DMac = 8.4495; P = 84.6275; Convexity = 94.36
If yield rises to 13% (from 10%)
% Change in Price due to Duration
ΔP/P - D Mac Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
[-8.4495/(1 0.1/2)] 0.03 - 24.1%
% Change in Price due to Convexity =
1/2 x Conv x (% r)2 =
1/2 x 94.36 x (0.03)2 = 4.25%
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Bond Price Estimation with Duration and
Convexity
Another Exercise
Suppose 5%, 20 years bond with yield = 9%.
Duration (DMac) = 10.87; Convexity (Conv) = 170.22
If yield changes from 9% to 11% (2% or 200 basis point
increase).
Estimate the change in bond price?
% Change in Price =
% Change in Price due to Duration
+
% Change in Price due to Convexity
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Bond Price Estimation with Duration and
Convexity
% Change in Price due to Duration :
ΔP/P - D Mac Δ(1 r)/(1 r)
[-10.87/(1 0.9/2)] 0.02
- 20.8%
% Change in Price due to Convexity
P/P = 0.5 x Conv x (%r)2
= 0.5 x 170.22 x (0.02)2 = 3.4044%
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Convexity
Value of Convexity
• The two bonds have the same duration and are offering
the same yield; they have different convexities, however,
Bond A is more convex (bowed) than bond B.
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Convexity
Coupon Time to Maturity YTM Duration
Bond A 15% 3 10% 3.154
Bond B 13.78% 3.89 10% 3.154
Two bonds have the same yield but one exhibits greater convexity,
changes in interest rates will affect each bond differently.
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Observations:
• A bond with greater convexity is less affected by an
increase in interest rates than a bond with less convexity.
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Convexity
Value of Convexity
• The market considers a bond’s convexity
• If investors expect that market yields will change by
very little, investors should not be willing to pay much
for convexity.
• If the market prices convexity high, investors with
expectations of low interest rate volatility will probably
want to “sell convexity.”
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Properties of Convexity
All option-free bonds have the following convexity properties:
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Portfolio Convexity
65
Portfolio Convexity
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Summary
Duration and convexity are measures of sensitivity of a bond
price to changes in yield.
Duration is the first derivative and convexity is the second
derivative
Convexity is the rate of change of duration with changes in
yield.
Convexity is ‘correction’ to duration
Both Duration and Convexity has the same relationship:
directly related to time to maturity,
inversely related to coupon size and
inversely related to YTM.
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Summary
Used as a risk measure for interest rate sensitivity
Determine hedging of interest rate risk (immunization)
There are several different definitions of duration:
• Macaulay duration (DMac) and modified duration (DMod)
• Differ by factor of (1+yield)
Zero-coupon long-dated bonds have the highest duration.
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