Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Topic 2 - Time Value of Money
Topic 2 - Time Value of Money
Practice
Time value of money
Assuming the situation that you won a lottery, and the lottery
company gives you two options for the payoff:
(a): The company will pay you $10, 000 right here right now.
(b): The company will pay you $15, 000 in 2 years time.
What are your choices?
1
Time Value of Money
2
Future Value (FV)
5
Composition of interest over time
6
How to calculate future value?
• Future of $1 invested for t periods at a rate of interest r per
year is
FV 1 pound (1 r )t
• is called the future value interest factor.
Manhattan island was sold for $24 in 1626 to Peter Minuit. Consider
an interest rate of 3.5% per year, how much is it worth in 2017?
(i) Using simple interest rate
(ii) Using annually compounded interest rate
(i) The annual interest payment is 24*3.5% = $0.84. This payment
is received for (2017 - 1626) = 391 years, giving a total interest
payment of 391*0.84 = $328.4, and plus the principal it will be
328.4 + 24 = $352.4
(ii) 24 *(1+3.5%)391 = $16,668,173.44
The Power of Compounding
8
Factors Affect FV
FV 1 pound (1 r )t
9
Present Value
• Calculate present value:
• The current value of a future sum of money or stream of cash
flows discounted at a certain rate of interest.
• For example, how much investment today will grow to
$1,000 at 10% per year in 2 years?
1, 000 PV (1 10%) 2
1, 000
therefore, PV
(1 10%) 2
10
Present Value (cont’d)
• The present value of $1 after t period in the future at the
interest rate r.
1
PV FV
(1 r )t
• Discount factor:
1
(1 r )t
11
Present Values: Changing Discount Rates
12
Present Value: Example
FV 100,000 t 10 r 7%
1 100,000
PV FV t
10
=50,835
(1 r ) (1 7%)
13
Periodic Compounding
PV 1,500 t 6 r 4.3%
FV 1,500 (1 4.3%)6 =1,931
4.3% 64
FV 1,500 (1 ) =1,938.84
4
r nt
FV PV (1 )
n
n: compouding frequency
t: overall length of time the interest is applied 14
Continuous Compounding
• Interests compound every infinitesimal instant, which is
called continuous compounding.
C0 e rT
• How do we have this?
r nT
Let FV PV (1 )
n
r nT
thus, FV lim ( PV (1 ) )
n n
r n T
PV [lim(1 ) ]
n n
PV e rT 15
PV of a stream of cash flows
Your auto dealer gives you the choice to pay $15,500 cash now or
make three payments: $8,000 now and $4,000 at the end of the
following two years. If your cost of money (discount rate) is 8%,
which do you prefer?
16
PV of a stream of cash flows
• The present value of multiple cash flows can be calculated
Let:
C1 = The cash flow in year 1
C2 = The cash flow in year 2
C t = The cash flow in year t (with any number of cash flows in between)
C1 C2 Ct
so we have, PV 1
2
(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )t
17
Annuities
• A series of constant cash flows for some fixed number of
periods.
• Annuities are very common in the financial market.
Examples, car loan, most mortgage loan, etc.
• Present Value of an Annuity:
Let:
C = yearly cash payment
r = interest rate
t = number of years
1 1
so we have, PV C t
r r (1 r )
18
Annuities: Example
You are purchasing a house which costs you $125,000. You have
$25,000 in deposit and need to borrow $100,000 from the bank.
Suppose the bank allows you to make 30 annual instalments with
an interest rate of 5% to repay the loan, how much you have to pay
every year?
PV=100,000 C ? r 5% t 30
1 1 1 1
PV C t
C 30
100, 000
r r (1 r ) 5% 5% (1 5%)
C 6,505.14
19
Future Value of Annuities
You are setting aside $3,000 at the end of every year. If your
savings earn interest of 8% a year, how much will they be
worth at the end of 4 years?
20
Future Value of Annuities (cont’d)
• A shortcut method to calculate the future value of an annuity
is to first calculate the present value of the annuity and then
multiply it by
• FV of an annuity:
1 1 t
FV C t
(1 r )
r r (1 r )
(1 r )t 1
C
r
21
Future Value of Annuities: Example
You plan to save $4,000 every year for 20 years and then retire.
Given a 10% rate of interest, how much will you have saved by
the time you retire?
1 1 t
FV C t
(1 r )
r r (1 r )
(1 10%) 20 1
4,000 =229,100
10%
22
Perpetuities
• An annuity in which its cash flow continues forever (the cash
flow will be received at the end of that year), e.g. Consols
bonds.
Suppose you could invest $100 at an interest rate of 10%. Every year you
earn an interest of $10 and withdraw this amount without running
down your balance. In other words, a $100 investment could provide a
perpetuity of $10 per year.
EAR (1 RP)12 1
• Annual Percentage Rate (APR): short-term rates annualized by
multiplying the rate per period by the number of periods in a year.
Годовая процентная ставка (APR): краткосрочные ставки в годовом
выражении путем умножения ставки за период на количество
периодов в году.
APR RP 12 26
EAR and APR: Example
Given a quarterly rate of 3%, what is the Effective Annual
Rate(EAR)? What is the Annual Percentage Rate (APR)?
EAR (1 RP) 4 1
(1 3%) 4 1 12.55%
APR RP n
3% 4 12%
27
Nominal & Real Interest Rates
• What is the rate of inflation?
• It measures the increases in the level of prices across the
economy.
• Why does it matter?
• It reduces the buying power of money. Suppose good X cost
$1.00 per unit in 2010 and in 2014 the same good X cost $1.20
per unit. The value of the $ has fallen due to rising prices.
• The return of your investment may be offset by increase of
prices of goods.
28
Nominal & Real Interest Rates (cont’d)
29
Nominal & Real Interest Rates (cont’d)
1.10
Real Rate 1 4.8%
1.05
1 1 1 1
PV C t
C 30
3,000,000
r r (1 r ) 4.8% 4.8% (1 4.8%)
C 190,728
32
Valuation in practice: Bond
• What is a bond?
• A bond is a certificate showing that a borrower owes a specified sum. To repay
the money, the borrower has agree to make interest and principal payments on
designated dates. Залог - это сертификат, подтверждающий, что заемщик должен
определенную сумму. Чтобы вернуть деньги, заемщик соглашается уплатить проценты и
основную сумму в установленные сроки.
Company SHU Inc. just issued 100,000 bonds for $10,000 each,
where the bonds have a coupon rate of 5% and a maturity of 2
years. Interest is to be paid yearly.
• This means:
• $1 billion (=100,000*$10,000) has been borrowed by SHU Inc.
• The firm must pay interest of $50 million (=$1 billion*5%) at the end of every
year for the following 2 years.
• The firm must pay both $50 million of interest and $1 billion of principal at the
end of 2 years. 33
Valuation in practice: Bond
34
Bond types
• Terminology:
• Maturity (T): The date when the issue of the bond makes the last payment is
called the maturity date of the bond.
• Срок погашения (T): дата, когда выпуск облигации производит последний
платеж, называется датой погашения облигации.
• Face/par value (F): The payment at the maturity is termed the bond’s face/par
value. Номинальная / номинальная стоимость (F): платеж по истечении
срока погашения называется номинальной / номинальной стоимостью
облигации.
• Bond types:
• Pure discount bond / Zero coupon bond.
• Coupon bonds.
35
Bond valuation
• Pure discount bond / Zero coupon bond.
F
PV
(1 R)T
Suppose that the interest rate is 10%. Consider a bond with a face
value of $1 million that matures in 20 years.
$1 million
PV 20
$148, 644
(1 10%)
36
Bond valuation (cont’d)
• Coupon bond:
C C CF
PV 1
2
...
(1 R) (1 R) (1 R)T
38
Equity valuation
• Which of the following is the value of equity?
• The discounted present value of the sum of next period’s dividend plus next
period’s share price.
• The discounted present value of all future dividends.
Div1 P1 Div2 P2
P0 P1
1 R 1 R 1 R 1 R
Div1 Div2 P2
Substituting P1 with P2 givens: P0
1 R (1 R) 2 (1 R) 2
Substituting Pt 1 with Pt givens,
Div1 Div2 Div3
P0 2
3
+...
1 R (1 R ) (1 R)
Divt
= t
t 1 (1 R ) 39
Valuations of equities types
• Zero growth: Value of equity with constant dividend.
Div Div Div
P0 2
3
+...
1 R (1 R ) (1 R)
Div
= t
t 1 (1 R )
Div
=
R
• Constant growth: Dividends grow at rate g:
40
Valuations of equities types
• Zero growth: Value of equity with constant dividend.
Div Div Div
P0 2
2
+...
1 R (1 R ) (1 R)
Div
= t
t 1 (1 R )
Div
=
R
• Constant growth: Dividends grow at rate g:
41
Additional Exercises
• 1. Would you rather receive $1,000 a year for 10 years or
$800 a year for 15 years if
• a. the interest rate is 5%?
• b. the interest rate is 20%?
• c. Why do your answers to (a) and (b) differ?
a. You should compare the present values of the two annuities.
1 1
PV £1,000 10
£7,721.73
0.05 0.05 (1.05)
1 1
PV £800 15
£8,303.73
0.05 0.05 (1.05)
42
Additional Exercises (cont’d)
• b.
1 1
PV £1,000 10
£4,192.47
0.20 0.20 (1.20)
1 1
PV £800 15
£3,740.38
0.20 0.20 (1.20)
43
Additional Exercises (cont’d)
• 2. A local bank advertises the following deal: “Pay us $100 a year for 10
years and then we will pay you (or your beneficiaries) $100 a year
forever. ” Is this a good deal if the interest rate available on other
deposits is 6%?
• The present value of your payments to the bank equals:
1 1
£100 10
£736.01
0.06 0.06 (1.06)
• The present value of your receipts is the value of a $100 perpetuity
deferred for 10 years:
100 1
10
£930.66
0.06 (1.06)
44
Additional Exercises (cont’d)
• 3. Suppose you can borrow money at 8.6% per year (APR) compounded
semiannually or 8.4% per year (APR) compounded monthly. Which is the
better deal?
• Semiannual compounding means that the 8.6% loan really carries
interest of 4.3 percent per half year. Similarly, the 8.4% loan has a
monthly rate of 0.7%.
Compounding
APR Effective annual rate
period
6 months
8.6% 1.0432 1 = 0.0878 = 8.78%
(m = 2/yr)
1 month
8.4% 1.00712 1 = 0.0873 = 8.73%
(m = 12/yr)
45