Probability and Statistics

Dr. M. Nasir Abrar

nasir@nbc.nust.edu.pk
 EXAMS AND GRADIG: There will be 4 homework
assignments, 4 quizzes, Mid Term exam and one
comprehensive final exam. Date of submission of
assignments will be reflected. Late submission of assignments
will not be entertained.

Assessment System:
Grading system will be followed to award grades. % age
weight of different exams is as under:

Type of Exam % age weight

Assignments 10%
Quizzes 10%
OHT’s 30%
Final Term 50%
 What is Statistics?
Meaning of Statistics:
The word “Statistics” comes from the Latin word
“Status”, meaning a political state, originally meant
information useful to state.
For example:
Information about the size of population, armed
forces, etc,.

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 Acquired Different Meanings
1st Place: The word statistics refers to “numerical data relating to an aggregate
of facts”.
For example:
Statistics of: prices
crimes
births
accidents
passing students
educational institutions, etc.

In all these above stated examples, the word statistics denotes a collection of
numerical data in the respective field.

In this sense the word statistics is always used in plural.

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 Cont…
2nd Place: The word statistics is defined as “a body
of procedures and techniques used to collect data,
process and analyze numerical data to make the
conclusion and to reach decisions in the face of
uncertainty”.
 Uncertainty: Uncertainty does not imply ignorance
but it refers to the incompleteness and the instability
of available data.
 In this sense the word statistics is used as singular.
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 Cont…
Conclusion:
Thus the word statistics used in the plural refers to a
“collection of numerical facts” and in the singular,
denotes “the science of basing decision on numerical
data”.

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 Define Statistics
Statistics:
Statistics is a branch of applied mathematics
concerned with collecting, organizing, & interpreting
data. 
Areas of statistics: Statistics as a subject may be
divided in to two main areas. i.e.
 Descriptive Statistics
 Inferential Statistics

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 Descriptive Statistics

 Descriptive statistics is that branch of statistics

which deals with concepts and methods concerned
with summarization, collection & description of
sample data.

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 Inferential Statistics

 Making decisions and drawing conclusions about

populations.
or
 Deals with the procedures for making conclusions
about the characteristics of larger group of data or
the whole, called the population.

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 Characteristics of Statistics
 Statistics deals with the behavior of aggregates or
large group of data, it has nothing to do with particular
individual or object of aggregate.
 Statistics deals with the aggregates of same kind
rather than isolated figures.
 Statistics deals with those characteristics or aspects of
things which can be described numerically.
 There is no guarantee that a certain law will hold in all
cases. Statistical conclusion is therefore made in the face
of uncertainty.
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 Introduction to Some Basic Terms
Population: The collection of all possible observation whether finite or
infinite, relevant to some characteristic of interest.

The statistical population may be real such as heights of college

students.
The number of observation in a finite population is called the size of
population, denoted by N.

Sample: A subset of the population. Generally it consists of some the

observations but in certain, but it may include whole of the population.
The number of observation included in a sample is called the size of
sample, denoted by n.
.
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 Cont…
Variable: A characteristic that varies with an individual or an object.
For example, age is a variable that varies from person to person.
Data (singular): The value of the variable associated with one element of
a population or sample. This value may be a number, a word, or a
symbol. e.g height of Capt Asad in OD-82-A
Data (plural): The set of values collected for the variable from each of the
elements belonging to the sample. e.g. height of students in OD-82-A.
Experiment: A planned activity whose results yield a set of data.
Parameter: A parameter is any numerical quantity that characterizes a
given population or some aspect of it.
For example, mean, median and mode. This means the parameter tells
us something about the whole population.
Statistic: A numerical value computed from sample is called statistic.
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 Cont…
Observation: An observation often means any sort of
numerically recorded information, whether it is a physical
measurement such as height or weight; a classification
such as head or tails, or an answer to question such as yes
or no.
Collection of data: There are many methods to collect
data such as:
 Direct personal Investigation (interviews)
 Collection through Questionnaires
 Collection through Enumerators, etc

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 Cont…
Classification is the process of arranging the things in
groups or classes according to their resemblance and
affinities(similar qualities).

Types of Classification:
1. One-way Classification
2. Two-way Classification
3. Multiple-way Classification

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 Types of Classification
1. One-way Classification: When the data are sorted according to
one criterion only, it is called simple classification or one way
classification.
For example: The population of the world may be classified by
religion as Muslim, Christian, etc.

2. Two -way Classification:

If we consider two characteristics at a time in order to classify the
observed data then we are doing two way classification.

For example: The population of the world may be classified by

religion and color.

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 Cont…
3. Multi -way Classification
We may consider more than two characteristics at a time
to classify given or observed data. In this way we deal in
multi-way classification.
For example: The population of the world may be classified
by religion, color and literacy.

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 Bases of Classification
There are four important bases of classification:
1. Qualitative Base   
2. Quantitative Base   
3. Geographical Base 
4. Chronological or Temporal Base

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 Cont...
Qualitative Base
When the data are classified according to a quality or
attribute such as religion, literacy, intelligence, etc.

Quantitative Base
When the data are classified by quantitative characteristics
like height, weight, age, income, etc.

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 Cont…
Geographical Base
When the data are classified by geographical regions or
location, like states, provinces, cities, countries, etc.

Chronological or Temporal Base

When the data are classified or arranged by their time of
occurrence, such as years, months, weeks, days, etc.

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 Cont…
Objective of Classification:
 to reduce large set of data into manageable form
 to display the points of similarity and dissimilarity
 to reflect the important aspects of data
 to prepare the ground for comparison
Tabulation:
A systematic arrangement of data in column and rows.
This sort of arrangement makes the data easy to
understand, facilitates comparison and provides the
effective way to convey information to reader.
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 Application of Statistics
Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and
statistical methods to assess risk in the insurance and the finance
industries.
Biostatistics is a branch of biology that studies biological
phenomena and observations by means of statistical analysis, &
includes medical statistics.
Geostatistics is a branch of geography that deals with the analysis of
data from disciplines such as petroleum, geology,  hydrology,
 oceanography, etc.

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 Cont…
Machine learning is the subfield of computer science that
formulates algorithms in order to make predictions from data.
Environmental statistics is the application of statistical methods
to environmental science. Weather, climate, air and water quality
are included, as are studies of plant and animal populations.

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 Cont…
 Engineering
 Astronomy
 Quality assurance
 Drug development
 Public health & medicine
 in the design of agricultural & experiment's

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 Applications in Civil Engineering
 Statistics and probability are used all the time in civil engineering
to quantify infrequent loads (seismic, wind, tsunami, landslide,
avalanche, flood, etc).
 Used in risk analysis where earthquake loadings, hydrology,
geotechnical and material strength uncertainties contribute to
overall risk of failure.
 Statistics are used to interrogate past events of these dangers; to
look for trends and map the frequency.
 Probability is used to forecast these hazards so that civil projects
can be designed to handle future loads.

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Thank you