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The Financial Environment:: Markets, Institutions, and Interest Rates
The Financial Environment:: Markets, Institutions, and Interest Rates
Financial markets
Types of financial institutions
Determinants of interest rates
Yield curves
4-1
What is a market?
A market is a venue where goods and
services are exchanged.
A financial market is a place where
individuals and organizations wanting to
borrow funds are brought together with
those having a surplus of funds.
4-2
Types of financial markets
Physical assets vs. Financial assets
Money vs. Capital
Primary vs. Secondary
Spot vs. Futures
Public vs. Private
4-3
How is capital transferred between
savers and borrowers?
Direct transfers
Investment
banking house
Financial
intermediaries
4-4
Types of financial intermediaries
Commercial banks
Savings and loan associations
Mutual savings banks
Credit unions
Pension funds
Life insurance companies
Mutual funds
4-5
Physical location stock exchanges
vs. Electronic dealer-based markets
Auction market vs.
Dealer market
(Exchanges vs. OTC)
NYSE vs. Nasdaq
Differences are
narrowing
4-6
The cost of money
The price, or cost, of debt capital is
the interest rate.
The price, or cost, of equity capital is
the required return. The required
return investors expect is composed of
compensation in the form of dividends
and capital gains.
4-7
What four factors affect the cost
of money?
Production
opportunities
Time preferences for
consumption
Risk
Expected inflation
4-8
“Nominal” vs. “Real” rates
k = represents any nominal rate
IP MRP DRP LP
S-T Treasury
L-T Treasury
S-T Corporate
L-T Corporate
4-11
Yield curve and the term
structure of interest rates
Term structure –
relationship between
interest rates (or
yields) and maturities.
The yield curve is a
graph of the term
structure.
A Treasury yield curve
from October 2002 can
be viewed at the right.
4-12
Constructing the yield curve:
Inflation
Step 1 – Find the average expected inflation
rate over years 1 to n:
INFL t
IPn t 1
n
4-13
Constructing the yield curve:
Inflation
Suppose, that inflation is expected to be 5% next
year, 6% the following year, and 8% thereafter.
IP1 = 5% / 1 = 5.00%
IP10= [5% + 6% + 8%(8)] / 10 = 7.50%
IP20= [5% + 6% + 8%(18)] / 20 = 7.75%
Must earn these IPs to break even vs. inflation;
these IPs would permit you to earn k* (before
taxes).
4-14
Constructing the yield curve:
Inflation
Step 2 – Find the appropriate maturity
risk premium (MRP). For this
example, the following equation will
be used find a security’s appropriate
maturity risk premium.
MRPt 0.1% ( t - 1 )
4-15
Constructing the yield curve:
Maturity Risk
Using the given equation:
MRP1 = 0.1% x (1-1) = 0.0%
MRP10 = 0.1% x (10-1) = 0.9%
MRP20 = 0.1% x (20-1) = 1.9%
Notice that since the equation is linear,
the maturity risk premium is increasing
in the time to maturity, as it should be.
4-16
Add the IPs and MRPs to k* to find
the appropriate nominal rates
Step 3 – Adding the premiums to k*.
4-19
Illustrating the relationship between
corporate and Treasury yield curves
Interest
Rate (%)
15
BB-Rated
10
AAA-Rated
Treasury
6.0% Yield Curve
5 5.9%
5.2%
Years to
0 Maturity
0 1 5 10 15 20
4-20
Pure Expectations Hypothesis
The PEH contends that the shape of the
yield curve depends on investor’s
expectations about future interest rates.
If interest rates are expected to
increase, L-T rates will be higher than
S-T rates, and vice-versa. Thus, the
yield curve can slope up, down, or even
bow.
4-21
Assumptions of the PEH
Assumes that the maturity risk premium
for Treasury securities is zero.
Long-term rates are an average of
current and future short-term rates.
If PEH is correct, you can use the yield
curve to “back out” expected future
interest rates.
4-22
An example:
Observed Treasury rates and the PEH
Maturity Yield
1 year 6.0%
2 years 6.2%
3 years 6.4%
4 years 6.5%
5 years 6.5%
If PEH holds, what does the market expect will
be the interest rate on one-year securities, one
year from now? Three-year securities, two years
from now?
4-23
One-year forward rate
4-24
Three-year security, two years
from now
4-26
Other factors that influence interest
rate levels
Federal reserve policy
Federal budget surplus or deficit
Level of business activity
International factors
4-27
Risks associated with investing
overseas
Exchange rate risk – If an
investment is denominated in a
currency other than U.S.
dollars, the investment’s value
will depend on what happens to
exchange rates.
Country risk – Arises from
investing or doing business in a
particular country and depends
on the country’s economic,
political, and social
environment.
4-28
Factors that cause exchange rates to
fluctuate
Changes in
relative inflation
Changes in
country risk
4-29