- SETTING THE SCENE -

The State of Air Transport and

Regulatory Developments

Boubacar Djibo
Director, Air Transport Bureau, ICAO

ICAN 2015
Antalya, Turkey, 19 October 2015

1
 CHICAGO CONVENTION

Preamble
THEREFORE, the undersigned governments
having agreed on certain principles and
arrangements in order that international civil
aviation may be developed in a safe and orderly
manner and that international air transport
services may be established on the basis of
equality of opportunity and operated soundly
and economically;

2
 -
Sustainability
Sixth Worldwide Air Transport Conference (ATConf/6)
(Montréal - 18 March 2013)
Opening remarks by the President of the Council
“By sustainable, we mean safe, secure and environmentally
friendly operations, for both passenger and cargo traffic, that
provide airlines, airports, air navigation service providers
(ANSPs) and other partners of the air transport value chain with
a reasonable expectation of profitability. It also means
supporting competitive economies and promoting balanced
regional development.”
3
INDUSTRY FACTS AND
FIGURES
4
The air transport industry continues to:
- Create direct and indirect employment;
- Support tourism and local businesses;
- Stimulate foreign investment and international trade;
- Contribute to sustainable development; and
- Support small and remote communities.

The industry has become an engine and a catalyst for socio-economic

growth and development.

5
 The size of the industry as at 2014

 3.3 billion passengers

 50 million tonnes of freight
 Over 1 000 scheduled airlines
 26 700 aircraft in service
 More than 4 000 airports
 170 air navigation centres

Traffic is for scheduled services

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 AirofTraffic
The size continues
the industry astoat
Grow
2014
(despite the challenges)

recession
World
6,000

SARS
9/11 terrorist attack
-

5,000
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres

Asian crisis
4,000

Gulf crisis
(billion)

Iran-Iraq war
3,000

Oil crisis
+5.9%

6.1
2,000 growth rate vs. 2013

1,000 trillion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
in 2014*
-
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Note: world total scheduled services *preliminary figures
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 Air Traffic is expected to continue to grow
BY YEAR 2030
 Passenger traffic by 4.6% per annum.
-

 Freight by 5.3% each year.

 Passenger traffic will double to

6.6billion by 2030

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 Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution Analysis
35%
Asia/ Pacific Since 2010:
traffic share in terms of RPK

30% Asia/Pacific ranks 1st

Europe
25% North
America
20% Since 2012:
Europe ranks 2nd
15%

10%
Middle East Middle East has
Latin
5% America/ remained the fastest
Caribbean
0%
Africa growing region since
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council Scheduled commercial traffic
9
Total (international and domestic) services
 .

More than half of International tourists

arrive by air

• Tourism expansion relies

heavily on air transport.

• Harmonious sectorial
policies on air transport
and tourism will facilitate
the development of travel
and tourism

Inbound tourism by mode of transport

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 World international cargo shipment
Volume of world international Value of world international
cargo shipment cargo shipment
Aviation
Surface modes
Aviation

Surface modes
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 2014 AIR TRANSPORT
RESULTS

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 .

World of Air Transport

3.3 33
-

+5.5% +2.1%
vs. 2013 vs. 2013

billion million
Passengers carried Commercial flights performed

6.1 194
+5.8% +4.9%
vs. 2013 vs. 2013

trillion billion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres Freight Tonne-Kilometres

Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Scheduled commercial traffic. Total (international and domestic) services 13
 .

Air Transport By Region

-

Europe
+6.0% RPK
North +2.0 FTK
America
+3.0% RPK
+3.2 FTK

Asia and
Pacific
+7.0% RPK
Middle +5.5 FTK
East
Latin America +11.3% RPK
and the +12.2 FTK
Caribbean
+5.3% RPK Africa
+1.2 FTK +0.8% RPK
+6.0 FTK

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 .

Air Transport By Region

- Aircraft departures (million) Passengers carried (million)
Africa 72.3
Africa 1.0 -0.2%
-0.9%
Asia/Pacific 1,107.2 +7.4%
Asia/Pacific 9.2
+5.7%
Europe 871.8 +5.7%
Europe 8.1 +3.2%
Latin America and Caribbean 240.2 +3.9%
Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 +0.6%
Middle East 1.2 +8.6% Middle East 173.7 +10.1%
-1.5% North America 838.1 +2.9%
North America 10.8

Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion)

Africa 139.1 +0.8% Africa 3.2
+6.0%
Asia/Pacific 1,926.8 +7.0% Asia/Pacific 76.4
+5.5%
Europe 1,660.5 +6.0% Europe 43.3 +2.0%
Latin America and Caribbean 319.7 +5.3% Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 +1.2%
Middle East 547.8 +11.3%
Middle East 25.4 +12.2%
North America 1,550.5 +3.0% +3.2%
North America 40.3

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 Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution
Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
-

2007 1st: North America 2014 1st: Asia/Pacific

2nd: Asia/Pacific 2nd: Europe
Latin Amer- 3rd: Europe 3rd: North America
ica/ Carib- Latin America /
bean Africa Caribbean Africa
2%
Middle East 4% 5% 2%
6% Middle East
North Amer- 9%
ica Asia/Pacific
32% 31%

Europe
27%

North America
25%

Asia/ Pacific Europe

29% 27%

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 Freight traffic: Worldwide distribution

Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres

2007 1st: Asia/Pacific

-

2014 1st: Asia/Pacific

Latin Amer- 2nd: North America 2nd: Europe
ica/ Carib- 3rd: Europe Latin Amer- Africa 3rd: North America
bean Africa ica and Car-
1% 2%
Middle East 3% ibbean
7% Middle East 3%
Asia/ Pacific 13%
42%
Asia/Pacific
39%

Europe
23%
North Amer-
ica
21%

North Amer- Europe

ica 22%
25%

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 .

Penetration of low-cost carriers (LCCs)

-

1,200 1,107 In 2014, LCCs carried 900 million

Number of passengers carried (million)

passengers out of 3.3 billion

1,000 passengers up 10.3% over 2013
872 838
800
600 Share of passenger carried on LCCs
in each region*
400
274 272 240 237
200 174
72 87 Africa 11%
8 20 Asia/Pacific 25%
- Europe 31%
ca ifi
c p e an st ica
ri c ro be Ea er Latin America/ Caribbean 36%
Af /P
a
Eu ib le
is a ar id
d Am Middle East 11%
A a/
C M o rth North America 28%
e ric N
World 27%
Am
tin
La

Passengers carried by LCCs Total number of passengers

* Based on air carrier registration
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 .

Commercial air transport fleet

- 30,000

Turboprop Turbojet 2014:

25,000 - Turbojets: 89% of world fleet ; this
share increased every year since
Number of aircraft*

20,000 2005
- Turboprop: 11% of world fleet
15,000 - 1 600 aircraft deliveries
- More than 3 000 aircraft net orders
10,000
89% for the world’s major aircraft
86% manufacturers
5,000

-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

*Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included
| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites 19
 .

International tourism trend

2014
-

1,200
Tourist arrivals by region
1,000
International Tourist Arrivals

Middle East
800 4%
+48 million Africa
(million)

5%
600 Vs. 2013
Americas

1,135
16%
Europe
400 51%

200 million
Asia and
Pacific
0
International tourist arrivals 23%

| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 20
FOCUSS ON TURKEY

21
 Airline Ranking in European Region
-

RPK (billion)

Lufthansa

Air France

British Airways

Ryanair

Turkish Airlines
Note: scheduled services
*2014 vs. 2013 Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates

- All airline of the Top 5 but Lufthansa recorded an increase

- Turkish Airlines:
- +16.3% growth : Network expansion in 2014
- 5th largest airline in the European Region in 2014
- Paris and Frankfurt airports recorded each a decrease
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 Airport Ranking in European Region
-

420,000 430,000 440,000 450,000 460,000 470,000 480,000

+ 0.2 %
London (LHR)

Paris (CDG) - 1.5 %

Frankfurt (FRA) - 0.8 %

Amsterdam (AMS) + 2.9 %

+ 8.2 %
Istanbul (IST)

Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI

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 Top 15 Airports in July 2015:
Istanbul is in the ranking in departures and passengers
-

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 .

Turkish Airlines
-

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 EMERGING ISSUES
 AIR CONNECTIVITY
 UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
GOALS
 REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT
26
 .

Air transport connectivity

-

A catalyst for economic development

Airports, air
navigation
services and Aerospace and
Air carriers, affiliates other
other aircraft manufacturing
operators and industries
affiliates

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 .

Economic contribution OF Air Connectivity

Direct economic impacts of aviation sector Direct, indirect, induced and tourism economic
impacts of aviation sector

8.5 million
Direct jobs supported by aviation worldwide
58.1 million
Jobs supported by aviation worldwide

$700 billion
Direct Global economic impact
$2.4
Global economic impact
trillion

2014 data 2012 data

| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Source: ICAO, Economic Contribution of Civil Aviation and ATAG 28
 .

Economic Impact OF Air Connectivity

-

Business aviation: efficient, flexible and cost-

effective access to global markets worldwide
and destinations to small and rural
communities
flight

Economic impact caused by Nepal

earthquake's disruption of air connectivity

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 .

UN Sustainable Dev. Goals (SDG)

-

SDG Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and
productive employment and decent work for all
• Connectivity Indicator to compare number
of markets made available by air transport
liberalization (“available” or “reserved”
connectivity) with the number of markets
having actual air services (“real”
connectivity)
• Facilitate States in meeting Target 8.9: By
2030, devise and implement policies to
promote sustainable tourism that creates
jobs and promotes local culture and
products
• Help States to determine the loss of
economic growth potential

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 .

UN Sustainable Dev. Goals (SDG)

-

SDG Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable

industrialization and foster innovation

Percentage of effective implementation (EI)

in the infrastructure development of
aerodromes and ground aids (AGA)

Facilitate States in meeting Target 9.1:

Develop quality, reliable, sustainable
and resilient infrastructure, including
regional and trans-border infrastructure,
to support economic development and
human well-being, with a focus on
affordable and equitable access for all.

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 .

Air connectivity and UN SDGs

-

Connectivity directly impacts UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Tourism -
Passenger Cargo-Freight

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 .

Regulatory Developments
(Market Access is becoming more open)
Agreements.
Web of Bilateral Air Services

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 .

Regulatory Developments
-

Regional Liberalization: Most world regions now have liberalization programs

Full liberalization
arrangements (ASEAN,
CARICOM, EU, LACAC.
Trans-Tasman
cooperation)

Gradual liberalization
arrangements
(Yamoussoukro Decision,
Damascus Agreement
signatory states, South
Pacific Islands)

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 .

Regulatory Developments
Bilateral Open Skies (as of June 2015)
States which signed
-

open skies agreements

with both the US and
third countries

States which signed

open skies agreements
with the US only

States which signed

open skies agreements
with the third countries
only

Over 400 Open Skies

Agreements involving
146 States

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 .

ICAN 2015: SUMMARY OF PARTICIPANTS

States/Territories Organisations General Public/Industry

94 5 60

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AIR TRANSPORT
FUTURE TRENDS

37
 World long-term air traffic forecasts scheduled passenger traffic

| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO 38
 World Long-term air traffic forecasts scheduled freight traffic

| ICAO UNITING AVIATION NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO 39
 FUTURE TRENDS
 Air traffic will continue to grow, but vulnerable to impacts.
 Competition among airlines will be intensified.
 Demands from consumers for better services will increase.
 Call for better regulatory and operating environment will escalate.

40
 THE ROLE OF ICAO
ICAO will continue to provide the required leadership by
putting in place appropriate regulatory framework,
policies and assistance for the sustainable development
of air transport in member States.

41
 .

ICAO UP COMING EVENT

-

ICAO World Aviation Forum

Aviation Partnerships for Sustainable Development

Date: 23 - 25 November 2015

Location: Montréal, Canada
Venue: ICAO HQ, 999 Robert-Bourassa Boulevard
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 Thank You
Merci
Gracias
Спасибо, Spasiba
‫ شكرا‬, Shukran
谢谢
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