GUESSTIMATIONS

 What are they?

 Why do we need these?

 How to Solve?
 Guess + Estimate
 To get high level quantification of Metrics
 Involves some amount of prior knowledge
(20%) & reasonable calculations(80%)

 Estimate the number of mobile sales in india in per

year
 Estimate the number of car sales in india per year
 Estimate the number of flights in air currently
Estimate the number of indians
who consume tea
As a Layman-
• I like tea
• Everyone likes tea
• There are so many tea shops
• Population is 1.3 billion
• So I think 500 million
 Analytics

Prior Knowledge:-
 Population of india is 1.3billion
 Age Distribution
 0-14 years =30%
 15-60 years=60%
 >61+ years =10%
 Urban Vs Rural=40%:60%
 Reasonable Calculations
Assumptions 1:-
• too young & too old people are out of consideration
• 60% of 1.3b=780mn
• Urban=310mn
Assumption 2:-
• Due to more options and lifestyle choices of urban
region the % of tea drinking people will be
comparatively less
• Rural tea drinking=470*60%
• Urban tea drinking=310*40%
• Total=400m
 Why guesstimates?
• Part of the questionnaire for most of the
management interviews
• Comes handy to get the scope/impact of any
problem
• Gives panellist a peek in your problem solving
& thinking ability
• Helps to improve mental calculations
• Google cannot answer all the questions
 How to solve
• Focus on the approach and less on accuracy of results
• Step 1-Break the problem:-
• Consumption Based-Age distribution,income
distribution,urban/rural
• Production based-Small,medium,large business
distribution,male/female ratio,etc
• Step 2-Put some reasonable number or percentage to
each segment
• Based on your prior knowledge
• Common sense
• Step 3-Do the correct calculations,Its totally fine to
round off numbers
 How to solve
Step 4-Observe the end result, If you think it is too
much skewed make sure you can explain what
might went wrong in your approach

• Again its not about the end result but the

approach
Note:-Have few numbers in hand like total
population of your country and state you live in,
gender ratio, income distribution, total area of your
region,etc.
 By guesstimate questions the
interviewer try to see the following
qualities in the candidates-
• Analytical Skills

• Problem solving

• How good are you with numbers

 Things to remember in solving
guesstimate questions
• Ask clarifying question

• Break down the problem

• Approach

• Calculations
 Questions
Ques. How many people live in your
housing society?
 Answer
 My society has two types of houses: Apartments and row houses.
 I then think about the number of apartments and row houses. I
remember there are Apartment blocks numbered 1 to 30. There are 4
row house lanes and each might have 8 row houses I guess.
 Now I have the following first level estimates:30 apartment blocks and
32 row houses.
 An apartment block in my society has 9 floors each with 3 apartments.
So, 27*30 = 810 flats.
 A row house has 2 floors, each with 2 flats – makes the total as
2*2*32 = 128 flats.
 So, total number of flats = 810+128 = 938. I know the average
household in India has approx 5 members. I also know that some flats
are still not occupied. I make a guess; let’s assume 10% flats are not
occupied.
 I get the final number of people living in my society: 938*0.9*5
 Question

How many cars are there in Delhi?

 Answer
 Clarify whether the interviewer assumes just personal vehicles or all cars, as
Delhi is also a government seat. The assumption in this solution will be that
only personal vehicles are being talked about.
 Firstly, the population of Delhi is 2 crores, rounding up. The average size of a
family in Delhi may be said to be four people, it being an urban region mostly
composed of nuclear families. Further segmentation may be as per income
class or level. As is customary, 30% of people may be said to belong to the
lower class, 50% to the middle class, and 20% to the upper class.
 The calculation metric will be the number of cars per family. Among middle-
class families, 50% may be said to own a car, and the other 50% own no car.
Among the upper-class families, it may be said that all families own an average
of two cars.
 Calculating proportions-
 Middle class families – 0.5 x 0.5 x 1 = 0.25
 Upper class families – 0.2 x 2 = 0.4
 Total = 0.65
 Total cars in Delhi = 2 crore * 0.65/4 = 32.5 lakhs.
 Some more Guesstimates for practice:

 What is the market size of toothbrushes in India?

 How many flights does Bangalore/Mumbai/Delhi Airport handle in
a day?
 How many balloons can be packed in an Airbus 380?
 What is the market size of refrigerators/TVs/Smartphones in India?
 How many Chocolates are sold in a day in India?
 What is the market size of Noodles in India?
 How many idlis are consumed in India in a year?
 How much paint is required to paint this room?
 What is the market size of disposable diapers in India?
 How much biryani is consumed in India in a year?
 How much toothpaste is used in a day in India?