CHAPTER 4

Production Decline Curve Analysis

 A traditional, phenomenological means of well
production study and forecast of performance is
decline curve analysis
 There is little fundamental justification to this
method except empirical evidence that well
performance data can be fitted with certain type
functions.
 under constant flowing pressure, which is a
reasonable assumption for normal production, the
general expression for rate versus time is
suggested to obey.
 Methods for production decline analysis

The general expression for rate versus time is suggested to obey:

 where K and n are constants. For constant fractional decline (exponential

decline), n = 0.
For hyperbolic decline, 0 < n > 1, and for the special case where n = 1, the
decline is called harmonic.
Of these cases, the exponential decline has been used extensively, because it
forms a semilogarithmic straight line when log q is graphed versus time.
 1. Exponential Decline

 For n = 0, the previous equation becomes:

 and after rearrangement it can be integrated between

time 0 and t with corresponding flow rates qi and q

 A semilogarithmic plot of log q versus t would form a

straight line with a slope equal to –K/2.3.
 2. Hyperbolic Decline
• Equation

• rearranged and integrated between qi and q and 0 and

t, leads to:
 3. Harmonic Decline
 for harmonic, when n = 1. The Hyperbolic equation
becomes:

 The Harmonic decline is considered as a special case

of Hyperbolic, which can be used to fit data that do not
form an apparent straight line on a semilog plot.
 After n and K are obtained, Equations below can be
used to forecast the well performance at a future time t
 Exponential decline curve
• q = qi (1-d)t
• q : oil production rate at time, t
• qi: Initial producing rate at time, to
• d: decline rate per time period
• t: time at which the calculation of q is decline
 Example:
Given an initial production rate of 120 barrels
per day and an exponential decline rate of 8%
per year, what is the producing rate 1 year and 2
years?
 Example

• Given that a well has declined from 100 STB/d

to 96 STB/d during a one month period. Use
the exponential decline model to perform the
following:
 Predict the production rate after 11 months
 predict the production rate after 5 years
 Find the cumulative amount of oil produced
during the 5 years
 Gas Reservoirs
The cumulative gas production at time and the rate
of decline can be find from the following formulas: