Surveying Uncertainty

Drilling & Measurements | Training Centers | Drilling Operations

 Revisions
Revision Date Description Changed by

Created by Elena McMorris

1.3 Oct 2012 Initial release Reviewed by Bertrand Cozon

1.4 Oct 2013 Minor corrections A. de Verteuil

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1.5 Nov 2013 Slides added and notes corrected for grammar A. de Verteuil
Added slide on error definitions and ellipse variation in fish-hook A. de Verteuil & Farooq Qureshi
1.6 Jan 2015 well

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 Objectives
At the end of this presentation you should be able to:

 Name the sources of errors that affect wellbore positioning

 Name the error model used as the standard in the oil industry today

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 Identify the sources of errors that are not accounted for by the error model
 Explain the importance of the company standards in regards to uncertainty
estimation
 Explain what Ellipsoid of Uncertainty (EOU) is and its relationship to
probability analysis
 Be able to calculate the EOU dimensions using Drilling Office application

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 Wellbore Positional Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a quantification of the accuracy

Uncertainty estimation is based on mathematic formulae within

the error model

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A number of error models have existed through the history of
wellbore surveying. To set the standard a group of companies
established “The Industry Steering Committee on Wellbore
Survey Accuracy” or ISCWSA

ISCWSA objective is “to produce and maintain standards for

the industry relating to wellbore survey accuracy”

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 Survey Tool Errors and Propagation
• Random errors - change from station to station & propagate as the square root
of MD

example - magnetic disturbance small contribution to error ellipse

• Systematic errors - same at every station & errors propagate proportionally to

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MD

example - BHA sag large contribution to error ellipse

• Bias errors* - predictable and, in principle, correctible

example - drill-pipe stretch shifts error ellipse away from survey position

*Note SAG is not a Bias but stretch is

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Modeled Errors

Standard accuracy is calculated taking the

following main types of errors into account:

• Sensor errors
•

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Sensor misalignment
• SAG
• Drillstring Magnetic Interference
• Reference errors
• Depth Errors

All errors are independent of each other

and when combined are assumed to
estimate the wellbore position uncertainty

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors

Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

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Errors due to typo mistakes, incorrect inputs,
incorrect calibration

• The depth tracking is correct

• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart
• There is no external sources of interference
• Tool measurements are within specifications
• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ
• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
within tolerances
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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors

Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

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• The depth tracking is correct

Inaccurate length measurements or calibration,

forgotten stands

• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart

• There is no external sources of interference
• Tool measurements are within specifications
• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ
• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
within tolerances
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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors
70 Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

• The depth tracking is correct
60 • Surveys are taken no more than 100ft apart

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Inclination

Minimum curvature assumes the well is a

perfect arc. It is not always the case.
50
• There is no external sources of interference
• Tool measurements are within specifications
• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ
• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
40 within tolerances
Measured depth
Static survey
High Definition Surveys

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors
Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

• The depth tracking is correct
• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart

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• There is no external source of magnetic
interference

Casing interference, fish left in offset wells,

solar storms, magnetized formation

• Tool measurements are within specifications

• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ
• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
within tolerances

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors
Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

• The depth tracking is correct
• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart
• There is no external sources of interference

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• Tool measurements are within specifications

Calibration, rotational shots, roll tests,

checkshots

• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ

• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
within tolerances

(above) SlimPulse ORM, D&I specification

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors
Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

• The depth tracking is correct
• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart

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• There is no external sources of interference
• Tool measurements are within specifications
• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ and
Interfering Field criteria is acceptable

Azimuth error and FAC are controlled by

standards and procedures (EDI)

• Magnetic reference used for surveys is

within tolerances

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 ISCWSA Error Model – Not Estimated Errors
Total Field Intensity Anomaly, nT

Assumptions within ISCWSA error model are:

• Survey does not contain gross errors

• The depth tracking is correct

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• Surveys are taken not more than 100ft apart
• There is no external sources of interference
Northing

• Tool measurements are within specifications

• Drillstring interference error is within 0.5ᵒ
• Magnetic reference used for surveys is
within tolerances
The biggest contributor in azimuth error (apart
from drillstring interference) is magnetic
declination. Error model accounts only for
some errors
Easting
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 ISCWSA Error Model

Not modeled error/not included

Modeled errors • Gross errors
• Sensor errors • Depth tracking errors

• Sensor misalignment
• SAG
• Drillstring Magnetic Interference
• Reference errors
• Depth Errors
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• Survey frequency
• Consideration for poor procedures
• Excessive error due to BHA mag
interference
• Excessive error due to local
magnetic crustal anomalies

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 Error Distribution in One Dimension

Assumptions:

Errors are independent from each other

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Errors are distributed normally

Normal distribution is characterized by

Mean  and Standard Deviation 
1std.dev Mean 1std.dev  ( x   )2
1 2 2
Confidence Interval f ( x)  e
 2
(above)The probability density function f(x)
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 Example of 1 Dimensional Error Distribution

Short Average Tall

Confidence level and confidence
intervals for 1 measurement

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68.3% - 1 sigma
95.4% - 2 sigma
99.7% - 3 sigma

Average American is 5ft 10in tall

0.14% 2.1% 13.6% 68% 13.6% 2.1% 0.14%
Approximately 68% of them are within 3”
Heigh

5’10”

5’11”
5’3”

5’4”

5’5”
5’6”

5’7”
5’8”

5’9”

6’1”

6’2”

6’3”

6’4”
6’
t

1 3 4 6 7 12 17 17 12 7 6 4 3 1
from average: 5ft 10in +/- 3”
unt
Co

3” in this case is a standard deviation

(above)The probability density function/Height distribution of American men
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 Example of 2 Dimensional Error Distribution
Height Distribution curve
5’10”

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0.14% 2.1% 13.6% 68% 13.6% 2.1% 0.14%

39.9% (2D) 1 sigma

Weight Distribution curve

89.9% (2D) 2 sigma

13.6%
69kg

68%

85kg
13.6%
101kg

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 For wellbore positioning 3 Dimensional
Uncertainty is required
 The size of the error ellipsoid is dependent upon the confidence level
and number of dimensions considered.
 Our standard is 3D, 95% confidence or 2.79 sigma

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 Error Distribution in 1, 2 or 3 Dimensions
Dimensionality Confidence Standard
Level Deviations
1D 68% 1 sigma
1D 95% 1.96 sigma 1D or 2D may be used for Driller’s
target sizing but 3D must be used for

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1D 99% 2.58 sigma
definitive surveys and AC analysis.
2D 68% 1.51 sigma
2D 95% 2.44 sigma
2D 99% 3.03 sigma
3D 68% 1.88 sigma
3D 95% 2.79 sigma
3D 99% 3.37 sigma

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 Errors at aofSurvey
Ellipsoid Station
Uncertainty (EOU)

A xis
jo r
Ma

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Vertical Survey Vector

EOU – 3 axis Ellipsoid of

Uncertainty
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 EOU’s –Major, Minor and Vertical axes

Major

Vertical

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Minor

 Inclination Uncertainty
 Azimuth Uncertainty
 Vertical Uncertainty

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Survey Tool Errors Example

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GMAG MWD-STD
123.19ft 532.68ft
DMAG

244.05ft

HOW BIG IS THE UNCERTAINTY? 123ft? 244 ft? 533 ft?

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 Ellipsoid of Uncertainty (3-D)

Semi-Major
(driven by azimuth errors)

The uncertainty at each survey

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station can be represented as an
ellipsoid with three axes defined
as Semi-Major, Semi-Minor and
Vertical . This reference frame is
also called NEV (North, East,
Vertical)
Vertical uncertainty
Semi-Minor (driven by TVD errors) There is another representation
(driven by inclination errors) called HLA (High side, Lateral,
Along hole)

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 EOU Propagation

Uncertainty at the current survey station consist EOU = Errorssurvey1

of error related to the current survey and all

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errors collected before. This can include
uncertainty of the well and uncertainty of the rig
and slot location.
EOU = Errorssurvey1 + Errorssurvey2

EOU = Errorssurvey1 +Errorssurvey2 + Errorssurvey3

Wellbore
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 Surveyed Position Uncertainty
Tie-on point or WRP WRP (Well Reference Point)
defined as last known point of
departure (EOU =zero)
normally taken at ground entry
or seabed.
Survey Points

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Ellipsoids of Uncertainty
Based on 3D Dimensionality, 95%
confidence, 2.79 sigma

Cone of Uncertainty

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 Error Ellipse Variation in a Fish-Hook Well
At constant azimuth,
lateral error increases When well turns,
most rapidly ellipse rotation
lags behind

In vertical hole,
ellipses
are circular

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As well passes back
under itself, ellipse shrinks
(systematic errors cancel out)

As step-out increases again,

ellipse expands rapidly PLAN VIEW
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 Uncertainty Application

Uncertainty affects many decisions:

- Where do we place the well?

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- Which survey instruments do we use?
- Do we require a correction technique?
- How frequently do we need to survey?
- When do we stop?

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 Are you be able to …?

 Name the sources of errors that affect wellbore position estimations

 Name the error model used as a standard in the oil industry today
 Identify the sources of errors that are not accounted for by the error model

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 Explain the importance of the company standards in regards to uncertainty
estimation
 Explain what Ellipsoid of Uncertainty (EOU) is and its relationship to
probability analysis
 Be able to calculate the EOU dimensions using Drilling Office application

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 Questions?

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Schlumberger Private
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