281 - Thermal and electrical performance prediction of an FSPV system: a case study in the Douro Region

Paulo Vargas , Salviano Pinto Soares and Sérgio Silva

1 1,2 1,3
1
School of Sciences and Technology, Engineering Department UTAD, Vila Real Portugal
2
IEETA UA, Aveiro, Portugal
3
INESC TEC Porto, Portugal al70216@alunos.utad.pt;salblues@utad.pt;al52260@utad.eu)

Introduction Analyses Conclusions

The use of traditional renewable energies such as hydro, wind
and solar has been the solution to the world's energy demands in
order to make the final energy consumption more sustainable.
Reasons to use FSPV-systems:
• More efficient than equivalent structures over land due to the water surface winds
that lower the temperature of the structure;
• Floating solar structures are composed from Solar panels that are fixed and
attached to a floating platform than is anchored to the bottom of the dam, lake or
reservoir;
• The systems can either use a floating inverter, or, in the case of smaller
installations, a land inverter can be used to deliver the energy to the grid.
Rapidminer was used to analyze the weather station data and implement the several perdition
models. The evaluation of the Models was done using the following metrics:
  Measure the accuracy of model prediction performance, calculate
  standard deviation of the residuals or prediction errors
Indication on how well the regression model is by computing the
distance between the data point and the regression line
Machine Learning Models can be applied to
weather station historical data to predict and
forecast the energy production that can be achieve
by using FSPV- Systems.
The Douro river region is a good example where
we can install these systems.

Gives the mean of the absolute differences between forecasted and In order to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050,
actual values the Portuguese government developed a 2030
Key Findings National Plan for Climate and Energy – PNEC to
• We can use ML methods based in weather station historical reach the goal of 80% of electricity consumption
data to forecast energy generation using FSPV- Systems. to be provided by renewable energies. With that
in mind several solar auctions are being deployed
• Among the different ML methods tested the Gradient Boosted Results to allocate 30 years licences for solar power
Tree obtains the best performance in both evaluation metrics DL DT
against all other tested techniques. generation in public water reservoirs.
• This is commonly due to the strong scalability and
regularization quality of the GLM.
The goals are set to carry out at least two 500MW
tenders per year, awarding a total capacity  of
1GW per year trying to achieve the 9GW before
2030.
Methods GBT GLM

The use of the ML Models can help chose the

The energy data was collected from February 2022 to
February 2023 (12 months period), and the dataset comprises
best regions where these installation can be
daily temperature observations collected in a FPV installation deployed.
on the Douro River region.
The dataset comprises three different variables which are
selected due to their direct effect on energy generation, those RF SVM References
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RMSE MAE
Acknowledgments
Special thanks to Quinta do Crasto for providing the space and
help in carrying out thus research work, and for IPMA-Institute
Portuguese do Mar e Atmosphere, for data kindly provided for
research in the scope of doctoral work