Harnessing a demographic dividend for equitable, sustainable and environment-friendly growth from a gender perspective

Jose Miguel Guzman

ICF
josemiguel.guzman@icf.com

Intersessional Expert Meeting on the full enjoyment of human rights by all women and girls and the systematic mainstreaming of a gender
perspective into the implementation of the 2030 Agenda

2-3 May, OHCHR, Palais des Nations, Geneva

 What is the demographic dividend
• What happens as a result of a sustained decline in
fertility and the subsequent decrease of the size and
weight of the young population and increase in the
working age population. So the dependency ratio decrease.

• Provides an opportunity for smarter economic and social

investments (human capital) and increased countries'
output and the possibility for long-term development.

• The demographic dividend is not a given. It is an

windows of opportunity. Requires the right policies.

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 What is the demographic dividend

Total Dependency Ratio

100.0

90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0
Nigeria Brazil
10.0

0.0
5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 0
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017)
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 What is the demographic dividend

Total Dependency Ratio

100.0

90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0
Nigeria Brazil
10.0

0.0
5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 0
19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017)
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 What is the demographic dividend
Working age population 15-64
80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

Nigeria Brazil
40.0

30.0

20.0
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 5
 Harnessing a Demographic Dividend
The 3 E’s Framework

Empowerment

Education

Employment

Source: World Economic Forum: Harnessing The Opportunity Of The Demographic Dividend. Publication by the Global
Agenda Council on the Demographic Dividend., 2015. 6
The 3 E’s Framework for Harnessing a Demographic Dividend
Areas for intervention: some examples

Empowerment (Goal 3, 5, 6,10,16) Education: (Goal 4 )

• Gender equality at all levels • Access and equal opportunities
• Early marriage and childbearing for education for girls and boys
• Female genital cutting • Access to sexual education
• Violence against women and girls • Increased investments in
• Health education to complete coverage
• Sexual and reproductive and and increase quality
family planning

Employment (Goal 8, 11)

• Employment/labor opportunities for young people, including
contexts of rapid urban growth
• Labor and trade policies

Source: World Economic Forum: Harnessing The Opportunity Of The Demographic Dividend. Publication by the Global
Agenda Council on the Demographic Dividend., 2015. 7
 Harnessing the demographic dividend
Policy implementation: sustainability, and gender

• Climate change and its consequences can undermine the

conditions for harnessing a demographic dividend.
• Best scenario: more consumers
– Investing in the green economy
• Example of Bangladesh
– Fertility decline
– More women employment
– Environmental degradation

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 Harnessing the demographic dividend
Policy implementation: Challenges, with emphasis in poorest countries

• Rapid and unplanned urbanization

• Skilled migration
• In situation of crisis and conflicts:
– Instability in the economy: low incentives for investments affects
employment creation, particularly for young people
– Focus in solving daily crisis: lack of long-term vision needed to generate a
demographic dividend and reap the benefits of it.
– Disruption of school cycles: low incentives for girls/boys to attend school.
– Less opportunities for gender sensitive policies and increased risks for
gender-based violence

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 Harnessing the demographic dividend
Some conclusions

• Opportunity is coming for demographic dividend in many

countries, particularly Africa. If well planned it can have
positive impacts on development, sustainability and gender
equality.
• Requires a long-term vision and a national commitment,
• There is no possibility of harnessing the DD without a
strong on gender equality, women and girls empowerment
and its synergies with the other two set of policies
• But it is not only about creating employment opportunities for
young people; it is about quality employment that allows for
growth and sustainability
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THANKS!

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