UNIT 3

TOPIC 2
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
Miss Perry
LEARNING GOALS
1. Construct a time series plot from given data
2. Identify and describe trends
3. Identify and describe seasonality
4. Identify and describe irregular fluctuation
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A time series is a collection of repeated measurements of data
over time. These are described over
• General Trend (long term direction)
• Seasonal (< calendar year)
• Cyclical pattern (> calendar year)
• Irregular (fluctuations)
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A trend can be described as:
“The tendency for values in a time series to generally increase
or decrease over a significant time period.”

There may be more than one trend per graph.

GENERAL TREND 6

A general trend upwards or downward trend is a

graph that illustrates a positive or negative
association.
SEASONAL PATTERN 7

Displays fluctuation that are periodic and repeat at the same

time of the calendar related. E.g each week, month or quarter.
e.g ice cream sales over the year
CYCLICAL PATTERN 8

Displays fluctuations that repeat in periodic movements but will usually

take longer than a year to repeat.

e.g. Interest Rates, Unemployment figures and sunspots

IRREGULAR FLUCTUATION 9

Do not show any clear pattern. The fluctuation is random and usually caused
by unpredictable events.
e.g. drought
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QUIZ

Q1: Do time series graphs always depict how the value

of a defined quantity varies with time?

A)No
B)Yes
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QUIZ

Q2) For every time series graph, the time

variable is on what axis?
A)X
B)Y
C)Explanatory variable
D)Response variable
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 Presentation title 13

CONSTRUCT A TIME SERIES

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales($) 132600 143800 137600 139800 141300 144500 147700 146400
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CONSTRUCT A TIME SERIES

Number of people who watch a news broadcast on a
given day of the week over a two week period.
Day M T W T F S S M T W T F S S
Numb 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.18 0.90 0.75 1 1.21 1.23 1.19 1.16 0.95 0.68 0.98
er of
views

Describe the trend any trends present.