Introduction to Probability

Chapter 3
 Chapter 3 Outline
Introduction W5 L9
Sample Spaces And Probability Concepts

Marginal and Conditional Probabilities W6-W7

Events & Probability Rules
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent and Dependent Events
Complementary Events

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 W5 L9 Learning Outcomes
• Describe basic concepts of probability
• Determine sample spaces for
– Simple event
– Compound event
• Construct tree diagram to show sample space.
• Describe and identify 3 probability approaches
– Classical
– Empirical
– Subjective
• List 4 basic rules of probability
• Construct Venn diagram for intersection and union
events.
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 Introduction
• Probability is the chance of an event occurring.
– E.g. a packet of candies…..
• Probability connects Descriptive Statistics and Inferential
Statistics.
• Make decisions about population based on information
from sample.
• Predictions are made based on probability.
• Application: card games, insurance, investment, weather
forecast, etc.
• Data>>Information>>Knowledge

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 2 Aspects of Statistics
Application
Development
of those to
& proof of
Statistics solve real
formula,
problems!
theorems, etc

Theoretical Applied

Descriptive Inferential

C.O.A. I.D.c
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 Sampling from Population
Sample of Entire population of
observations observations
Random selection

Use
Probability Parameter
Statistic µ=?
Make decisions about population based on info from sample

Statistical Inference
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 Basic Concepts
• Probability experiment:
– A chance process that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.

• Outcome:
– The result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

• Sample space:
– A collection of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

• Event:
– Any collection of outcomes of a probability experiment.
– i.e. any subset of the sample space is an event.
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 Examples

Experiment Sample Spaces

Toss one coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a True/False True, False
question
Toss two coins Head-Head, Head-Tail, Tail-
Tail, Tail-Head

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 Example 1
• Find the sample space for rolling two dice!

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 Tree Diagram
• A diagram to determine all possible outcomes (sample
space) of a probability experiment.
• Example: Tree diagram for the experiment of tossing a
coin twice. (head or tail?)
Outcomes
2nd toss

H HH
1st toss

H
T HT

H TH

T
T TT
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 Example 2
• Find the sample space for the gender of three children in
a family. (boy or girl?)
Outcomes
3rd child
BBB
2 child
nd
B

1st child B BBG

G
B BGB
B
BGG
G G
B GBB
B
G GBG
G GGB
B
G
GGG
G
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 Lets Exercise!
1. I have a container with Smarties of 1 red, 1 yellow and
1 blue color.
• If 2 students select 1 Smarties each, what will be the
possible outcomes?
• Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space.

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 Solution
Outcomes
2nd student

1st student R RR

B RB
R
RY
Y
R BR

B BB
B
BY
Y
YR
R

Y B YB

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 Lets Exercise!
2. You are selected to participate in a contest at a mall.
• You need to choose a pair of shoes and then a pair of
socks.
• There are a total of 4 pairs of shoes and each has a
selection of 3 pairs of socks.
• Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space.

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 Solution
Socks Outcomes
Shoes A 1,A
B 1,B
1
1,C
C
A 2,A

B 2,B
2
C 2,C
A 3,A

3 B 3,B
3,C
C
A
4,A
4 B 4,B
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C
 Venn Diagram
• A picture (a closed geometric shape) that shows all the
possible outcomes for an experiment.
• The symbol  represents the union of two events and
P(A  B) corresponds to A OR B.
• The symbol  represents the intersection of two events
and P(A  B) corresponds to A AND B.

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 Simple Event
• Simple event – an event with only one outcome.
e.g: If a die is rolled and a 6 shows.
• It is also called an elementary event.
• Denoted by E.
• Other examples?
– A coin is tossed and a head shows.

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 Compound Event
• Compound Event - an event with more than one
outcome.
e.g : The event of getting an odd number when a die is
rolled.
Since it consists of three outcomes or three simple
events (odd numbers are 1, 3, 5)
• It is also called composite event.
• Denoted by A,B,C,….
• Other examples?
– The event of getting even number when a die is rolled.

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 3 Basic Probability Approaches
1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

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 Classical Probability
• Uses sample spaces to determine the probability an
event will happen.
• Assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur; all the events have the same
probability of occurring.
• The probability of any event E is:
• Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes
in the sample space

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 Examples
1. When a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same
probability of occurring.
– Since there are six outcomes (1,2,3,4,5,6), each outcome has a
probability of 1/6.

2. When a card is drawn from a deck (52 cards), each

outcome has the same probability of occurring.
Each has probability of 1/52.

3. There
What is the
are 4 probability
queens, thusof getting
P(queen)a queen?
= 4/52 = 1/13.

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 Empirical Probability
• Relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood
of outcomes.
• Is based on observation.
• Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event
being in a given class is:
• Frequency for the class
• Total frequencies in the distribution
• Or denoted as,

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 Example
• Hospital records indicate that maternity patients stayed in the hospital for
the number of days shown in the following distribution:

Find the probability that

a) A patient stayed exactly 5 days
P(5 days) = 56 / 127 = 0.4409

b) A patient stayed less than 6 days

P(less than 6 days) =

c) A patient stayed at most 4 days

P(at most 4 days) =

d) A patient stayed at least 5 days

P(at least 5 days) =
80 = 0.6299
127

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 Subjective Probability
• Uses a probability value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.
• This guess is based on the person’s experience and
evaluation of a solution.
• E.g: A physician might say that, on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an
operation.
• What is your chance of scoring A in the mid-sem test?

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 Probability Rules
1. The probability of any event E is a number between and
including 0 and 1.

2. If an event E cannot occur, its probability is 0

(impossible event).

3. If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1

(certain event).

4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the

sample space is 1.

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 Intersection Event
• Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space.
• The intersection of events A and B is the event that
occurs when both A and B occur.
• It is denoted by either A  B or AB.
• E.g.
• A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera
Family owns both
DVD player
and digital camera)

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 Union Event
• Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space.
• The union of events A and B is the event that occurs
when either A or B or both occur.
• It is denoted as A  B.
• E.g.
• A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera
All the shaded
areas give the
union of events A
and B.
(A or B or both
A&B)
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 Example 8
• A senior citizens centre has 300 members. Of them,
140 are male, 210 take at least one medicine on a
permanent basis and 95 are male and take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis. Draw a Venn diagram
to describe,
a) the intersection of the events “male” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis”.
b) the union of the events “male” and “take at least one medicine
on a permanent basis”.
c) the intersection of the events “female” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis”.
d) the union of the events “female” and “take at least one medicine
on a permanent basis”.

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• Let us define the following events:
• M = a senior citizen is a male
• F = a senior citizen is a female
• A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
• B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine
• a) n(M  A) = 95

M A

95

29
b) n (M  A) = 45 + 95 + 115 = 255
M A

45 95 115

c) Female taking medicine = 210-95 = 115,

n(F  A) = 115 A A
n (F) = 300-140 = 160 F

d) n(F  A) = 45 + 115 + 95 = 255 115

95 45

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 W5 L9: Closure
You should now be able to:
• Describe the basic concepts of probability.
• Determine sample spaces for
– simple event, compound event
• Construct tree diagram to show sample space.
• Describe and identify 3 probability approaches
– classical, empirical, subjective
• List 4 basic rules of probability.
• Construct Venn diagram for intersection and union events.
Next Lesson: W5 L10
• Dependent, Independent Events
• Joint, Marginal, Conditional Probability
• Events & Probability Rules

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