Recap W5 L9

• Describe and identify 3 probability approaches

– Classical
– Empirical
– Subjective
• List 4 basic rules of probability
• Construct Venn diagram for intersection and union
events.

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 Q.1 
1. For each of the following, indicate whether the type of
probability involved is an example of classical
probability, empirical probability or subjective probability:
• i) The next toss of a fair coin will land on head.
Classical. Equally likely to occur. Fair chance
• ii) Barcelona will win soccer’s World Cup the next time
the competition is held.
Subjective. Based on guess, opinion.
• iii) The sum of the faces of two dice will be 7.
Classical. Equally likely to occur. Fair chance.
• iv) The train taking a commuter to work will be more
than 10 minutes late.
Empirical. Based on actual experience, observation.
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 Q.2
• A test contains two multiple-choice questions. If a student makes a
random guess to answer each question, how many outcomes are
possible? Draw a tree diagram for this experiment. (Hint: Consider
two outcomes for each question – either the answer is correct or it
is wrong).

Outcomes
Q.2

C CC
Q.1

C
W CW

C WC

W SQQS1013_W5_L10_ZZ 3
W WW
 W5 L10 Learning Outcomes
• Apply probability concepts to answer Q.1 - 4 of Exercise 3.
• Identify various event types
– complementary event
– dependent event
– independent event
• Apply various probability concepts
– joint probability
– marginal probability
– conditional probability
• Use addition rules to determine probability for
– mutually exclusive events
– non-mutually exclusive events

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 Q.3
• Refer to question 2. List all the outcomes included in
each of the following events and mention which are
simple and which are compound events.
• i) Both answers are correct.
{CC}. Simple event.
• ii) At most one answer is wrong.
{CW, WC, CC}. Compound event.
• iii) The first answer is correct and the second is wrong.
{CW}. Simple event.
• iv) Exactly one answer is wrong.
{CW, WC}. Compound event.
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 Q.4
• State whether the following events are independent or
dependent.
• i) Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car.
Dependent.
• ii) Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ.
Independent.
• iii) A father being left-handed and a daughter being left-
handed.
Independent.
• iv) Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and
smoking an excessive amount of cigarettes.
Independent.

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 Complementary Event
• The set of outcomes in the sample space that is not
included in the
_ outcomes of event E.
• Denoted as E (read “E bar”)
• E.g.
– Rolling a die and getting a 3. (All but NOT 3)
1, 2, 4, 5, 6
– Selecting a month and getting a month than begins with the
letter J. (All but NOT Jan, June, July)

February, March, April, May, August, September,

October, November, December.

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 Complementary Event
• The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the
complement make up the entire sample space.
• The rule of complementary events can be stated
algebraically in 3 ways:

P( E )  1  P( E )

P( E )  1  P( E )

P( E )  P( E )  1

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 Independent Event
• Two events A and B are independent events if the fact
that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.
• E.g. Wearing red dress and eating ice-cream.
• Other examples?

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 Dependent Event
• When the outcome or occurrence of the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in
such a way that the probability is changed, the events
are said to be dependent events.
• E.g. Driving very fast and getting caught in speed trap.
• Other examples?

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 Joint Probability
• The probability of the intersection of events.
• Written by either P(A  B) or P(AB).
Category College graduate, G NOT a college graduate, Total
G
Male, M 7 20 27
Female, F 4 9 13
11 29 40
If one of those employees is selected at random for membership of a club,
there are 4 joint probabilities that can be defined; the probability that
a) this employee is a male and a college graduate
P(MG) = 7/40 = 0.175
b) this employee is a female and a college graduate
P(FG) = 4/40 = 1/10 = 0.1
c) this employee is a male and not a college graduate
P(MG ) = 20/40 = ½ = 0.5
d) this employee is a female and not a college graduate
P(FG ) = 9/40 = 0.225
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 Marginal Probability
• The probability of a single event without consideration of any other
event.
• Also called as simple probability.
• Named so as it is calculated in the margins of the table (divide the
corresponding totals for the row or column by the grand total).
• If one of those employees is selected at random for membership on
the employee management committee, find the probabilities for
each of the followings:

a) the chosen employee is a male

P(M) = 27/40 = 0.675
b) the chosen employee is a female
P(F) = 13/40 = 0.325
c) the chosen employee a college graduate
P(G) = 11/40 = 0.275
d) the chosen employee is not a college graduate
P(G) = 29/40 = 0.725
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 Conditional Probability
• Often used to gauge the relationship between two
events.
• Conditional probability is the probability that an event will
occur given that another event has already occurred.
• Written as:
• P(event will occur | event has already occurred)
• The probability of event A Pgiven
 A event
B  B is
P A | B 
PB

• The probability of event BPgiven

 A  event
B A is
P  B | A 
P  A
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 Conditional Probability
• If one of those employees is selected at random for membership on
the employee management committee, find the probabilities for
each of the followings:
• a) the chosen employee is a male given that he is graduated from
college
P(M|G) = P ( M =G ) 7/40 = 7/11 = 0.6364
P(G )
11/40
• b) the chosen employee is not a college graduate given that this
employee is female
P(G|F) = P (G  F ) = 9/40 = 9/13 = 0.6923
13/40
P (F )

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 Example
• A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are country music.
•
• a) 2 CDs are selected at random and with replacement. Find the
probability that the second CD is country music given that the first CD
is country music. 5 5
P(CM 2  CM 1) 30 30 1
• P(CM2|CM1) = = = 5
P (CM 1) 6
30
• b) This time the selection made is without replacement. Find the
probability that the second CD is country music given that the first CD
is country music. 5 4
P (CM 2  CM 1) 4
• P(CM2|CM1) = = = 30 29
P (CM 1) 5 29
30
Draw a tree diagram for (a) and (b). See the difference?
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 Events & Probability Rules
• Mutually exclusive or non-mutually exclusive?

• Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at

the same time (they have no outcomes in common).

• The probability of two or more events can be determined

by the addition rules.

• There are two addition rules to determine either the two

events are mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive.

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Addition Rule 1

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Addition Rule 2

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 Example
• Consider the following events when rolling a die:
• A = an even number is obtained = 2,4,6
• B = an odd number is obtained = 1,3,5
• Are events A and B mutually exclusive ?
• Yes, the two events are mutually exclusive since
event A and event B have no common element.

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 Example
• Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not, when a single die is rolled.
• Getting a 3 and getting an odd number.
• Not Mutually Exclusive
• Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number
less than 4.
• Mutually Exclusive
• Getting an odd number and getting a number less than
4.
Not Mutually Exclusive

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 W5 L10: Summary
You should now be able to:
• Identify various event types
– complementary event
– dependent event
– independent event
• Apply various probability concepts
– joint probability
– marginal probability
– conditional probability
• Use addition rules to determine probability for
– mutually exclusive events
– non-mutually exclusive events
Next Lesson W6 L11:
• Multiplication Rules for
– Independent events
– Dependent events

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