Flood Prediction: Graph Analysis and Flow Routing Technique

Graph Analysis
 What is Flood?

Flood is defined as extremely high flows or levels

of rivers, lakes, ponds, reservoirs and any other
water bodies, whereby water overflow outside of
the water bodies area. Floods occur when soil and
vegetation cannot absorb all the water.
What are the causes of Flooding?
Changes in Land use and
Climactic events
increasing population

Dam & Levee Failures Land subsidence, Tsunami

 What are the Effects of Flooding?

Floods not only damage
property and endanger the lives
of humans and animals, but have
other effects as well. Rapid
runoff causes soil erosion as well
as sediment deposition.
Spawning grounds for fish and
other wildlife habitat are often
destroyed.
What is Flood Why do we study
Prediction? Flood Prediction?
Flood prediction and The answer is simple, Flood
modeling refer to the processes of forecasting is needed for developing
transformation of rainfall into a appropriate measures to control
flood hydrograph and to the flood risk, mitigate flood hazard,
translation of that hydrograph evacuate people from flood hazard
throughout a watershed or any areas, determine insurance
other hydrologic system. premiums, and manage
environmental and water resources
systems.
ADVANTAGES
• Authorities can prepare defenses and emergency
services before a flood occur, therefore reducing
damage to homes, farmland and businesses.
• It can help to choose what type of flood defenses DISADVANTAGES
should be used in an area. • How effective the preparations are
• Intangible losses including; loss of life and injury, depending on local authorities and support
and the damage caused to human health and long- of voluntary and official agencies.
term well-being, can be prevented. • Prediction and warnings don’t help to
• Technology is always improving and becoming reduce the chance of the river bursting its
more accurate. banks, therefore have to be used with other
• Less damage means costs and disruption of daily management strategies or defenses.
lives are greatly reduced.
• Residents can take precautions to protect their
property or can be evacuated.
Hydrographs
(Total runoff Hydrograph) It is a
graph showing the change of rate of
flow (discharge) versus time past a
specific point in a river, or other
channel or conduit carrying flow.
It can also refer to a graph
showing the volume of water
reaching a particular outfall
(discharge point of a waste stream
into a body of water usually sea and
lakes).
 Factors that influence the hydrograph shape and volume
Meteorological factors
include
Ø Rainfall intensity and pattern
Ø Areal distribution or rainfall
over the basin and
Ø Size and duration of the
storm event
Physiographic or watershed factors Human factors include
include
• Ø the effects of land
• Ø Size and shape of the drainage
use and land cover
area
• Ø Slope of the land surface and main
channel
• Ø Channel morphology and drainage
type
• Ø Soil types and distribution
• Ø Storage detention in the watershed
Base Flow Separation

As the Unit Hydrograph concept applies only to direct runoff,

the direct runoff must be separated from the baseflow. Baseflow
separation or hydrograph analysis is the process of separating the
direct runoff (surface runoff and quick interflow) from the baseflow.
Because we do not want to include the contribution from baseflow
in the unit hydrograph, this must be separated from the quick–
response runoff. There are various methods for doing this.
Some of the well-known base flow
separation procedures:
1.Constant-discharge method

2.Constant-slope method

3.Concave method
Constant-discharge method

The constant discharge method

assumes that baseflow is
constant during the storm
hydrograph. The minimum
streamflow immediately prior to
the rising limb is used as the
constant value.
 Constant-slope method
N=0.8A^0.2
Connect inflection point on receding
limb of storm hydrograph to beginning A= Discharge area
of storm hydrograph. in km^2

Assumes flow from aquifers began

prior to start of current storm,
arbitrarily sets it to inflection point.
Draw a line connecting the point (A-
C) connecting a point N time periods
after the peak.
 Concave method
The concave method attempts to
represent an assumed initial decrease in
baseflow during the beginning of a storm
(climbing limb) by projecting the
declining hydrographic trend prior to the
rainfall event (to) to directly under peak
runoff. This minimum is then connected
to the inflection point on the receding
limb of storm hydrograph to mimic
what’s thought to be a delayed increase in
baseflow.
Example Time hr Streamflow (m3/s)
0 10
1 20
Given: A= 18km^2 2 45
1 hr duration 3 50
4 43
Find depth of DRO= ? 5 30
* Use constant discharge method 6 25
7 22
8 19
9 15
10 10
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Example
Find the depth of DRO and total Volume of DRO
Given:
$ UHD KHFW
DUHV

Use constant
slope method
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 Unit Hydrograph

The Unit Hydrograph (UH) of a watershed is defined as the direct runoff

hydrograph resulting from a unit volume of excess rainfall of constant intensity and
uniformly distributed over the drain.
The duration of the unit volume of excess or effective rainfall, sometimes
referred to as the effective duration, defines and labels the particular unit
hydrograph.
The unit volume is usually considered to be associated with 1 cm (1 inch) of
effective rainfall distributed uniformly over the basin area or guage area.
 +

Runoff
Hydrograph
Traditionally the UH is expressed in:

Where:
Qn is the nth ordinate of the DRH

Pm is the volume (or depth) of the mth rainfall excess

expressed in units of equivalent depth (e.g., cm or in)
Un-m+1 is the (n-m+1)th ordinate of the UH, expressed in units
of m3/s/cm or ft3/s/in.
 The ordinates of a 6-h unit
Example
hydrograph are given. A storm had
Ordinate of 6hr 3 successive 6-h intervals of
Time h
(UH) m3/s/cm
rainfall magnitude of 3,5,4 cm
0 0
respectively. Assuming a Ø (loss-
6 250
12 600
index) of 0.2cm/hr and a baseflow
18 800 of 30m3/s. Determine the
24 700 resulting hydrograph flow.
30 600
36 450 Time Rainfall Rainfall Excess (Pm)
42 320
48 200 0-6hr 3cm Rainfall - (0.2x6)=1.8cm
54
60
100
50
6h-12h 5cm Rainfall - (0.2x6)=3.8cm
66 0 12-18h 4cm Rainfall - (0.2x6)=2.8cm
Example Given below are observed
flows a storm of 6h duration
Discharge on a stream with catchment
Time h
M3/s
0 0 area of 500 km2. Assuming
6 100 the baseflow to be zero.
12 250
18 200
Derive the ordinates of the 6h
24 150 unit hydrograph.
30 100
36 70
42 50
48 35
54 25
60 15
66 5
72 0
 Discharge UH
Time h baseflow DRO
M3/s M3/s/cm
0 0 0 0 0
6 100 0 100 23.15
12 250 0 250 57.87
18 200 0 200 46.3
24 150 0 150 34.72
30 100 0 100 23.15
36 70 0 70 16.2
42 50 0 50 11.57
48 35 0 35 8.1
54 25 0 25 5.79
60 15 0 15 3.47
66 5 0 5 1.16
72 0 0 0 0
S-Hydrograph Method

The S-hydrograph method

overcomes the restriction
imposed by the lagging
method and allows of any
duration unit hydrograph.
Steps in finding the s curve with specific time range (t’r) of
rainfall.

1. Create the s curve directly, the time range (tr) is equal to time duration
D-hr.

2. Then lag with is the specified time range of DRO.

3. Subtract the lagged S curve from the original S curve.

4. Divide the result by (tr/t’r)

 Example. Given the following 2-hr unit hydrograph, construct S-
hydrograph.
Example. Given the following 2-hr unit hydrograph, construct S-hydrograph

Time (hr) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Q (cfs) 0 100 250 200 100 50 0
Time(hr) 1st 2-hr 2nd 2-hr 3rd 2-hr 4th S-Hydrograph

0 0 0
1 100 100

2 250 0 250

3 200 100 300

4 100 250 0 350

5 50 200 100 350

6 0 100 250 0 350

7 50 200 100 350

8 0 100 250 350
 Example. Given the following 2-hr unit hydrograph, construct S-
hydrograph if rain falls during 4 hour duration.
Example. Given the following 2-hr unit hydrograph, construct S-hydrograph

Time (hr) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Q (cfs) 0 100 250 200 100 50 0
 S-curve (lagged2hr) S-curve (lagged4hr) Lagged 4-hour Hydrograph 4-h Unit Hydrograph
Time(hr) 2-hr UH 1 Sum
0 0 0 0 0
1 100 100 100 50
2 250 0 250 250 125
3 200 100 300 300 150
4 100 250 0 350 0 350 175
5 50 200 100 350 100 250 125
6 0 100 250 0 350 250 100 50
7 50 200 100 350 300 50 25
8 0 100 250 350 350 0 0

9 50 200 250 350 0 0

10 0 100 100 350 0 0

11 50 50 350 0 0

12 0 0 350 0
 INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH
 

The Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) is the hydrograph

of runoff that would result if 1 in. of water were spread uniformly
over an area in an instant and then allowed to run off.
To develop an IUH, any I in./hr S-hydrograph must first be
obtained. The resulting S-curve is lagged by the interval ∆t to
develop a ∆t –hour unit hydrograph. The resulting ∆t –hour unit
hydrograph becomes IUH when ∆t is set to 0.0 in the limit.
If a continuing I in./hr excess storm produces the original and lagged S-
hydrographs, the ∆t –hour unit hydrograph is the difference between the
two curves, divided by the amount of excess rain depth in ∆t hours, or

(Eq. 1)
 
The differences are divided by I ∆t to convert from a storm with I ∆t
inches in ∆t hours to one with 1.0 in. in ∆t hours, which is the definition
of a ∆t –hour unit graph.
As ∆t approaches zero, Eq. 1 becomes

(Eq. 2)
Unit Hydrograph A sequence of 1-min storms

Superposition runoff hydrographs for each of the 1-min storms. (After Schaake.)
If an IUH is supplied, the above process can be reversed, and any X-hour unit can
be found by averaging IUH flows at X-hr intervals, or

(IU+ IU) (Eq. 3)

 Example. Given the following 1.0in/hr S-hydrograph, determine the IUH,
and then use it to estimate a 1-hr UH.

Time(hr) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

S-curve 0 50 200 450 500 650 700 750 800

(cfs)
Solution
The IUH found from Eq. 2. The slope at time t is approximated by (
Time S-Curve △𝑄
IUH =
෥ △t

0 0 0
0.5 50 200

1.0 200 400

1.5 450 300
The 1-hr UH is
2 500 200
obtained from Eq 3.
2.5 650 200
using readings 1-hr
3 700 100

3.5 750 100

intervals:
4 800 50

4.5 800 0
5.0 800 0
Time IUH𝑡 IUHt−1 1-hr UH

0 0 0 0

1 400 0 200

2 200 400 300

3 100 200 150

4 50 100 75

5 0 50 25

6 0 0 0
Synthetic Unit Hydrograph

A synthetic unit hydrograph retains all the features of

the unit hydrograph, but does not require rainfall-runoff
data. A synthetic unit hydrograph is derived from theory
and experience, and its purpose is to simulate basin
diffusion by estimating the basin lag based on a certain
formula or procedure.
 Snyder’s Synthetic Unit Hydrograph

• The synthetic unit hydrograph of

Snyder (1938) is based on
relationships found between three
characteristics of a standard unit
hydrograph and descriptors of basin
morphology.
Steps in Solving the Flow or Runoff using Snyder’s
Synthetic Method
1. Determine the needed measured watershed data and other parameters from similar
watershed regions.
• Area of watershed to be taken; A (mi2, km2)
• Length of main channel; L
• Distance from outlet to watershed centroid; Lc
• Regional Parameters; Ct and Cp

2. Determine the standard time to peak (tp, hours) and standard storm duration (tr,
hours) of the standard unit hydrograph
=C1*Ct(L*Lc)^0.3
where C1= 1for English units and 0.75 for SI units
tr=tP/5.5
3. Determine the time to peak tpr (hours) for the desired storm duration tR (hours)
= + 0.25(-tr)
4. Determine the peak discharge, QPR (cfs/in, cms/cm)
=(C2A)/
where, C2=640 for English units and 2.75 for SI units

5. Determine the width of the hydrograph at 0.5 and 0.75

;

where;

6. Determine the time to peak and base time for the hydrograph

where;
Example;
A watershed has a drainage area 5.42mi2, length of main stream is 4.45mi,
and the main channel length from the watershed outlet to the point opposite
the center of gravity of the watershed is 2mi. For Ct=2 and Cp=0.625.

a.) Determine the standard synthetic UH for this watershed ( 1 hour

storm duration).

b.) Determine the standard synthetic UH for this watershed ( 30mins

storm duration).