WOS Revisited Bergen 2007 Talk

West of Shetlands revisited – Improving
future exploration success in a frontier area
Nick Loizou
The 2nd Biennial Geology Conference

Exploration Revived 2007
An honest explorationists view

♛ A few years ago some companies, managers and explorationists were
saying ‘the perceived exploration success in the Atlantic ocean west of
Shetland had eluded the industry’
♚ I did not believe this to be true – and during the last few years I have been
on a mission to demonstrate and encourage explorationists to the frontier
potential WoS
♝ Having evaluated all 139 exploration wells I have unearthed many intriguing
realities and resolved some myths about past exploration that has provided
me with a greater insight of what the future potential for WoS may hold
♞ Today, without doubt there are a number of major, intermediate and smaller
exploration companies who might now say ‘they were actually mistaken
about the exploration potential’
Next 24 minutes
• Building on lessons learnt
• Frontier Comparison
• Who drilled and when
• Analysis of 139 exploration wells
• Analogues
• New techniques
• A pointer to the future
• Conclusions
Building on the lessons learnt

• Obviously any means to increase the chance of commercial success would be of
great benefit for those involved in oil and gas exploration
• Exploration in frontier areas is both challenging and expensive and for the WoS this
is partly reflected in the success rate of about 1 in 5
• Compared to other frontier areas in the world, the task of finding more commercial
hydrocarbons is not that daunting
• Exploration has only been focused in certain areas with half of the ‘potentially
prospective’ area located in waters greater than 800 metres - considered as the real
frontier area
• About 66% of all the exploration wells WoS tested poorly defined traps.
Nonetheless, many of these wells still provide very useful stratigraphic information
for the explorationist
• Half the potentially prospective

area lies beneath 800m of water
• Just 12 wells drilled in water depths

greater than 800m
• Only 81 blocks contain one or

more wells
• Approx 30,000sq kms covered by

Paleocene basalts
• 3D coverage = 117 blocks

approximately 23,500 sq kms
The key mission for companies exploring in frontier areas is to

successfully locate and drill for commercial hydrocarbon accumulations
In any Frontier basin there are always the ‘pioneer exploration

companies’ who took more of the risk, especially in areas that could not
be confirmed by any well control
For west of Shetlands, the pioneer exploration companies included BP,

Esso, Shell, Texaco, Mobil and Elf
A fair number of wells were ‘wild-cats’ but only a very few of the 139
wells might be described as ‘killer-wells’ (wells that potentially confirm
an area to have limited or no potential)
Frontier Basin Comparison
• WoS exploration began in 1972 but it was not until 17 wells later
that the 1st discovery, Clair, was made
Comparison
• North Sea exploration began in 1964 and the 4th well (48/6-1) was
the 1st discovery
• WoS 30 discoveries (139 exploration wells) have been made some of

which are commercial with an overall success rate 1 in 5
Comparison
• North Sea between 1964 and 1970, 300 exploration wells drilled
with 30 ‘significant discoveries’ (success rate 1 in 10)
Exploration history
139 wells drilled to 2006, 30 encountered notable hydrocarbons
15
Suilven 1996
Clair
12
1977
Laggan
9 1986 Foinaven
Number of wells
1990
6
Rosebank/
Lochnagar
3 2006
Discoveries
Year
Dry Holes
Water depths have partly stalled deepwater offshore exploration in the past -
Now this is compounded by the availability and cost of rig/drill ships
Who drilled the exploration wells?

One or two wells drilled
• 26 different operators
2
No of wells
1
• BP most successful
operator
3 or more wells drilled
• However 10 of BP’s 12 35
discoveries are within 30
Foinaven area 25
20
No of wells
15
Discoveries
10
Dry Holes 5
0
Analysis of 109 failed exploration wells
• Analysis of failed wells demonstrates there is a need for a better

understanding of play concepts, trapping mechanisms, charge history and
source distribution
• Deepwater exploration is no different here than anywhere else –

success depends on solid foundations and fundamentally sound
science
• The basics are crucial and include a sound geologic understanding of

the subsurface from seafloor all the way to the objective.
• Even today the lack of knowledge is hindered by the inability to quickly

trade well data, which contributes to a reduced understanding of the area, and
ultimately impinges on success rate
Analysis of 109 failed exploration wells

Each of the failed wells has 7%
Source or
been assessed in terms of : - 6% migration
Seal thin
or absent
 Trap definition
 Reservoir presence and quality 21%

Reservoir
thin or
 Seal presence and effectiveness absent
 Source rocks and charge

66%
Poorly defined
Ⓙ AVO analysis (examples will be shown trap
later)
The key reason for most failures has been poor trap definition
However
Many wells failed on a combination of geologic components
Analysis of 63 wells drilled

13%
on Mesozoic Prospects
Source 13%
Successful traps
3%
Seal
25%
Reservoir
46%
Invalid traps
• Overall success for the Mesozoic has been limited. The key discoveries have
been Clair, Victory, Solan and the recent 2004 Chevron Lochnagar 213/27-1Z
well
• Only 11 wells positioned on 3D seismic with just 2 discoveries:-

Chevron Lochnagar 213/27-1Z and Arco Bombardier 205/23-2
Analysis of 73 Paleocene Prospects
7%
Seal thin
7% Or absent 29%
Reservoir thin Successful
Or absent trap
57%
Invalid
trap
Surprisingly, only 3 of the 73 wells were positioned on a Palaeocene

‘structural high’. All 3 encountered notable hydrocarbons and are located
along the Corona Ridge
Analysis of 48 Paleocene Stratigraphic Prospects

Simplified Paleocene stratigraphic model
Source rock and charge was the least contributory element towards well
failure
but
Some poorly-defined traps also failed due to migration problems
Well 204/18-1 Assynt (a 2001 failure)
T35 - T36 interval

mainly sandstone &
siltstone lithologies
AVO Cross plot
• Originally interpreted as a significant

stratigraphic trap with class III type AVO
• However, recent work clearly shows a Class
I type AVO (no hydrocarbons) ‘Wet Rock Trend’
90’s success and a nearby 2001 failure
• Regional setting shows a fundamental problem particularly with the validity of the trap
and sourcing
• Assynt was interpreted as a direct fairway analogue to Foinaven - however by
comparison there is no evidence of true amplitude conformance with structure
Study of Paleocene ‘stratigraphic’ wells

• 48 stratigraphic wells located mainly
in the Foinaven and Flett Sub basins
• 10 successes 38 failures
• All successful wells are close to or

at the basin margins
• A large number of wells drilled on

But
geophysical ‘AVO’ anomalies
• Many of the wells did not actually
test a valid trap
• Better expectation for future success

Laggan Gas Field, Block 206/1a
• Excellent analogue of a
Paleocene stratigraphic
/combination trap
• Potentially similar prospects GWC 3907m

exist along trend over a number
of untested blocks
• However, high amplitudes are

also indicative of high
porosities, not hydrocarbons
Map courtesy of Total

Laggan Gas Field, Block 206/1a
AVO Cross plot
• High amplitude Paleocene T35 Vaila

sandstones pinchout before the main NE
trending growth faults
Hydrocarbon
• Laggan exhibits Class 3 Type AVO response Trend
Example of a Laggan analogue – Lead 205/4A
• Amplitude anomaly generally conforms to depth

• Seismic profile similar to Laggan
• Similar leads exist along trend over a number of untested blocks
Laggan gas anomaly and nearby analogue
Laggan Lead 205/4A

Datum – Base
Kettla Tuff
0.0 s
0.5 s
50 Kilometres 50 Kilometres 1.0 s

Seismic courtesy of PGS
• Flattened on the Base Kettla Member, the anomalies show a

consistent amplitude strengthening at the basin margin
• Lead 205/4A has distinct similarities with the Laggan gas
accumulation located 15kms to the NE
Excellent Eocene analogue, Block 214/4a

Tobermory 214/4-1
• Stranded gas discovery located in deep water with potential P50 reserves of 450 -
550 BCF
• In terms of exploring for similar analogues, look for faults that originate from the
pre-Cretaceous which may help de-risk the sourcing of any identified
prospectivity Seismic courtesy of TGS
Suilven Oil & Gas accumulation, Blocks 204/14a & 19b

• Provides a good Paleocene analogue of a structural trap
A1
• Good amplitude conformance with structure
• Size of the accumulation is strongly linked to the degree of A

fault throw
Depth Structure
A A1
A1
Amplitude
Courtesy of ConocoPhillips
Challenge to image beneath areas covered by basalt

Chevron has helped develop a technically advanced solution to the sub-
basalt imaging problem

The acquisition method uses a 3D vessel towing four 12km cables in an
“over-and-under” configuration with 2 arrays of sources combined with
2 receiver cables at different depths
This system will record up to 32 times as much data per sail line
compared to a conventional 2D system
Typically seismic surveys target frequencies in 5-100 Hz bandwidth
Due to the high frequency attenuation in basalt, recording more lower

frequency data – lower than 40 Hz would result in better imaged data
New techniques for Frontier exploration - Chevron
Basemap showing location of Over and Under survey
Courtesy of Chevron
New acquisition techniques for Frontier exploration

• Over – Under ensures that where frequencies are
missing in one source-receiver combination due to
ghost effects, they are present in another
Western Pride
m Sources
400
Positioning Cable
mean sea level
12m
s1
20.25m
s Air Gun Arrays

r Cable s2
d e
r-Un
Ove
km 32m
Cables
~ 12
mean sea level
20.25m
25.125m c1
g Ca ble
n c3 c4
tioni
Posi
30m
c2
Courtesy of Chevron
Direct comparison OU and with Conventional
Single Source and Cable Configuration Over and Under Source and cable
(Proxy for ‘conventional’ high spec 2D Configuration showing improvement in
data) seismic image
Courtesy of Chevron
New techniques for Frontier exploration
• This primitive technology might work in locating

water but breakthroughs in new technology are
required for deepwater areas
• Many hydrocarbon accumulations are hard to see

on seismic – e.g. Clair, Solan and Strathmore
• Stratigraphic traps often have no resolvable

seismic expression, are rated as high risk and
hence downplayed in portfolio risk evaluation
• Harnessing for example electromagnetic

surveying techniques will provide further means
of accelerating the exploration workflow and
deliver prospects more quickly than traditional
methods
1Km
Source
Receivers
In a hydrocarbon-filled reservoir, refraction of
the electromagnetic waves back to receivers
previously placed on the seafloor prove the
existence of a subsurface resistive body, i.e.
hydrocarbons
HC-filled reservoir
Seabed Logging (SBL) Measures resistivity – not acoustic properties

Senses fluids rather than structure
• Receivers are deployed on the seabed

• An electromagnetic dipole source is towed above the receivers
• The source emits a continuous signal
• The receivers record electric and magnetic fields
• SBL frequenices are low, generally ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz
Courtesy of emgs
ELECTROMAGNETIC GEOSERVICES AS
Case – 2003 Troll Survey

located in the North Sea - water depth about 300
metres Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Normalised Magnitude
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs
2,5
Towline
2,0
Reservoir
Contour
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
0 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 -12000
Offset (m)

Courtesy of emgs

Depth Migration
• Data from the Troll Field

located in the North Sea
• The reservoir location is

identified with a white
rectangle
• Red indicates increased

resistivity compared to the
green background Resistive body
1.4 – 1.6 KMS depth
• Depth migration produces Depth (km)

images which indicate the Courtesy of emgs
A pointer to the future

Having analysed all 139 exploration wells drilled over 35 years, a much
clearer picture emerges of what has actually been tested
109 unsuccessful wells failed to find hydrocarbons – approx 66% had

no reliable trap to begin with

The analysis has revealed a high success rate for wells positioned on
valid traps to be greater than 40%
Undoubtedly, this firmly demonstrates that there is opportunity to

improve the exploration success rate west of Shetlands
Explorationists must, in future, fully evaluate all the pertinent data to

unravel and understand the true geology to create a valid trap, and hence
increase the chance of success
Conclusions
Barring the unexpected, exploration and appraisal activity in the west of
Shetlands is anticipated to escalate
There has been significant renewed interest so we'll see another

generation of exploration take place with hopefully improved success
With the increasing activity will be more regional players with

companies taking up new technology and innovation
Strong cash flows will give an opportunity to experiment and consider

riskier investments than could be contemplated under a low price
situation
Successful frontier exploration is ultimately determined by

understanding the true geology and petroleum system of an area
Finally
In any area on this earth, when all the right ‘geologic’
ingredients that constitute to the occurrence of
hydrocarbons and reliable trapping mechanisms are
present, then success for that area should be viewed as
optimistically high
Special thanks to NPF for organising the conference
Good luck to all the companies exploring west of

Shetlands and other frontier basins around the globe
nick.loizou@dti.gsi.gov.uk

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West of Shetlands revisited – Improving

future exploration success in a frontier area

The 2nd Biennial Geology Conference

An honest explorationists view

• Who drilled and when

• Analysis of 139 exploration wells

• A pointer to the future

Building on the lessons learnt

Building on the lessons learnt

• Half the potentially prospective

• Just 12 wells drilled in water depths

• Only 81 blocks contain one or

• Approx 30,000sq kms covered by

• 3D coverage = 117 blocks

Building on the lessons learnt

The key mission for companies exploring in frontier areas is to

In any Frontier basin there are always the ‘pioneer exploration

For west of Shetlands, the pioneer exploration companies included BP,

Frontier Basin Comparison

• WoS 30 discoveries (139 exploration wells) have been made some of

Who drilled the exploration wells?

Analysis of 109 failed exploration wells

• Analysis of failed wells demonstrates there is a need for a better

• Deepwater exploration is no different here than anywhere else –

• The basics are crucial and include a sound geologic understanding of

• Even today the lack of knowledge is hindered by the inability to quickly

Analysis of 109 failed exploration wells

 Reservoir presence and quality 21%

 Source rocks and charge

Analysis of 63 wells drilled

• Only 11 wells positioned on 3D seismic with just 2 discoveries:-

Analysis of 73 Paleocene Prospects

Surprisingly, only 3 of the 73 wells were positioned on a Palaeocene

Analysis of 48 Paleocene Stratigraphic Prospects

Well 204/18-1 Assynt (a 2001 failure)

T35 - T36 interval

AVO Cross plot

• Originally interpreted as a significant

90’s success and a nearby 2001 failure

Study of Paleocene ‘stratigraphic’ wells

• All successful wells are close to or

• A large number of wells drilled on

• Better expectation for future success

Laggan Gas Field, Block 206/1a

• Potentially similar prospects GWC 3907m

• However, high amplitudes are

Map courtesy of Total

Laggan Gas Field, Block 206/1a

AVO Cross plot

• High amplitude Paleocene T35 Vaila

Example of a Laggan analogue – Lead 205/4A

• Amplitude anomaly generally conforms to depth

Laggan gas anomaly and nearby analogue

Laggan Lead 205/4A

50 Kilometres 50 Kilometres 1.0 s

• Flattened on the Base Kettla Member, the anomalies show a

Excellent Eocene analogue, Block 214/4a

Suilven Oil & Gas accumulation, Blocks 204/14a & 19b

• Size of the accumulation is strongly linked to the degree of A

Challenge to image beneath areas covered by basalt

Typically seismic surveys target frequencies in 5-100 Hz bandwidth

Due to the high frequency attenuation in basalt, recording more lower

New techniques for Frontier exploration - Chevron