MATH226/STAT222

PROBABILITY AND
STATISTIC METHODS
Example questions from latest course topics

Dr. Semih OĞUZCAN

Question 1:
A penalty shooter has an average scoring rate of 80%.

a) Amongst the next 5 penalties, how many missed goals do you expect?

b) What is the probability that he will not miss a single penalty?

c) What is the probability that his first goal will be on the 2nd try?
Answer 1: Binary outcomes, independent
events (p constant), X discrete.

a) P(missing a goal)=1-0.8=0.2

X: is the number of penalties missed. X~B(n=5,p=0.2)

E(X)=np = 5*0.2=1
Answer 1:
• b) X: the number of penalties missed
 Binary outcomes, independent
Answer 1: events (p constant), X discrete,
interested in success at nth trial.

c) X: the trial number for the first penalty X~geometric(p=0.8)

Question 2:
If an automatic sowing machine makes 2 faulty stiches on a meter of cloth on
average:
a) Find the probability that there will be 2 errors in the next meter of cloth.

b) What the probability that you will get 3 errors in 1 meter of cloth?

c) What is the probability that there will be less than 3 errors in 4 meter of
cloth?

d) What is the probability that there will be 2 errors in the first 2 meters, 2 errors
in the next 1 meter, and then 4 errors in the next 2 meters.
 Binary outcomes, independent events,
Answer 2: X discrete, trials (n) CONTINUOUS.

a) λ=2/m Poisson distribution

t= 1 m

− 𝜆𝑡 𝑥 −2 2
𝑒 (𝜆𝑡 ) 𝑒 (2 ) −2
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =2 )= = =2.𝑒 =0.2707
𝑥! 2!
Answer 2:
b) λ=2/m
t= 1 m
Answer 2:
c) λ=2/m
t= 4 m

𝑃 ( 𝑋 <3 )=𝑃 ( 𝑋 =0 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =1 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =2 )
Answer 2:
d) 2 errors in 2 meters  X=2, λ=2/m, t=2 m  P(X=2, λ=2, t=2)

AND

2 errors in 1 meter  X=2, λ=2/m, t=1 m  P(X=2, λ=2, t=1)

AND

4 errors in 2 meters  X=4, λ=2/m, t=2 m  P(X=4, λ=2, t=2)

Independent events; probabilities can be multiplied! Hence:

Answer: P(X=2, λ=2, t=2)*P(X=2, λ=2, t=1)*P(X=4, λ=2, t=2)

Question 3:
You have a box of cell phones; the number of phones in the box is 15
and you know that 3 of them are faulty.
a) If I pick 1 phone from the box at random, what’s the probability that
it will be faulty?

b) If I pick 3 phones from the box at random, what’s the probability that
1 of them will be faulty?

c) If I pick 3 phones from the box at random, what’s the probability that
all of them will be faulty?
 Binary outcomes, dependent events
Answer 3: (no replacement), X discrete.

Hypergeometric distribution!

a) N=15
k=3
n=1
X: the number of faulty phones = 1
 Binary outcomes, dependent events
Answer 3: (no replacement), X discrete.

Hypergeometric distribution!

b) N=15
k=3
n=3
X: the number of faulty phones = 1
 Binary outcomes, dependent events
Answer 3: (no replacement), X discrete.

Hypergeometric distribution!

c) N=15
k=3
n=3
X: the number of faulty phones = 3
Question 4:
Consider a table factory. A device is cutting up tables of length L. The
result of the cutting process is distributed normally, with mean L and
standard deviation σ=∓0.01L.
If the table length is between 0.98L<L<1.035L, then the table is
considered fit for purpose.

a) If L= 100 cm, calculate the probability that a randomly selected

table is NOT fit for purpose.

b) What is the probabilty that out of the next 20 tables produced, 1 of

them is faulty. (Assume that successive trials are independent)
Answer 4:
a) X: Length of the table produced.
P(fit for purpose)=
In general

P(not fit for purpose)=1-P(fit for purpose)

=
… continued Mean= 100 cm Standard deviation= 1 cm
Answer 4:
Now we are interested in faulty or not; binary
b) X:no of faulty products outcomes (hence X discrete), independent events.