CHAPTER SEVEN:

QUANTITATIVE NETWORK
ANALYSIS

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 What is project management ?
• A project consists of interrelated activities which are to be executed in a
certain order before the entire task is completed

• The activities are interrelated in the logical sequence is known as

precedence relationship

• Project is represented in the form of a network for the purpose of

analytical treatment to get solution for scheduling and controlling

• Project management is the discipline of applying specific processes and

principles to initiate, plan, execute and manage the way that new
initiatives or changes are implemented within an organization

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 Phases of Project Management
• Has three phases:
1. Project planning
2. Project scheduling
3. Project controlling

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 Phase 1: Project Planning

1. What is the project goal or objective?

2. What are the activities (or tasks) involved?
3. How are activities linked?
4. How much time required for each activity?
5. What resources are required for each activity?

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 Phase 2: Project Scheduling

1. When will the entire project be completed?

2. What is the scheduled start and end time for each activity?
3. Which are the “critical” activities?

4. Which are the noncritical activities?

5. How late can noncritical activities be delaying the project?
6. After accounting for uncertainty, what is the probability of
completing the project by a specific deadline?

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 Phase 3: Project Controlling

At regular intervals during the project the following questions

should be considered:

• Is the project on schedule? Early? Late?

• Monitoring and progress report (Are costs equal to the
budget? Over budget? Under budget?)
• Are there adequate resources?
• What is the best way to reduce project duration at minimum
cost?

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 Network Concept
• Networks:
– Networks illustrate the way in which the parts of the project
are organized.
– They can be used to determine the time duration of the
projects.

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 Identifying Activities
• An activity means a work. A project consists of several activities.
An activity takes time. It is represented by an arrow in a
diagram of the network.
• For example, an activity in house construction can be flooring.
• Subdivides a large project into smaller units
• Each activity should have a clearly defined starting point and
ending point
• Each activity is clearly distinguishable from every other activity
• Each activity can be a project in itself

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 Identify for Each Activity:

Event
• It is the beginning or the end of an activity.
• Events are represented by circles in a project network
diagram.
• The events in a network are called the nodes.
• Time/resources required for completion event

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 Cont’d

The activities can be further classified into the following three

categories:
a) Predecessor activity: An activity which must be completed before
one or more other activities started.
b) Successor activity: An activity which started immediately after
one or more of other activities is completed
c) Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume either any
resource and /or time. It is depicted by dotted line in the net work
diagram. A dummy activity in the network is added only to
establish the given precedence relationship among activities of
the project and is needed when (i) two or more parallel activities
in a project have same head and tail events , or (ii) two or more
activities have some (but not all) of their immediate predecessor
activities in common
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 Project Network /Diagram Construction
– There are two Techniques that are used for project analysis
I. CPM- Critical Path Method
II. PERT - Project Evaluation and Review Technique
• Critical Path Method (CPM):
– The longest path in which the minimum length of time is
required for the completion of the project.
– A complex undertaking, but individual tasks are routine (tasks’
duration = deterministic)
• Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT):
– Developed to manage the project duration
– Many tasks pushed the boundaries of science & engineering
(tasks’ duration = probabilistic)

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 Network Diagrams
• Activity-on-Node (AON):
– Uses nodes to represent the activity (a rectangular box or a
circular)
– Uses arrows to represent precedence relationships

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 …Cont’d
• The arrows represent the dependencies between
the different activities and the specific sequence
in which the estimated tasks must be
accomplished.

– The length and the slope of these arrows do not

provide any information about operational hours,
workload etc.

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 Activity On Node Network Technique
• Define the relationships of each activity in the project
context.
– Which activities must be finished before starting this
one?
– Which activities can directly start after finishing this
one?
– Which activities can be done in parallel to this one?

 Predecessor, successor and parallel relationships for

each task.

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 Dummy Activity

• Dummy activity: is an activity that does not

consume time or resources.
• It shows merely the dependencies or proper
relationship between activities.
• A dotted arrow represents dummy.  

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 Dummy Activity
3
Lay Dummy
foundation

2 0
Finish
work 7
Build
house 6
3 1 1
1 2 4
3
1
Order materials
Design house &
obtain financing 1
Select Select carpet
paint

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 Importance of Network diagram
• To know the total time to complete the project
• To scheduled the project activities (to the start and finish dates
for each specific activity)
• To identify which activities are critical /not, and
• to keep the project on schedule

• use the project to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control

the project.

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 Basic steps in Network diagram----CPM &PERT

Step 1: Define activities

– The project & all of its significant activities or tasks
– Efficient tool: work break down structure (WBS)
• The WBS represents a logical decomposition of the work to be
performed.

(Example: What are the activities that are needed to

build a house? to conduct a research?)
– Finding these activities is a brainstorming activity

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 Basic steps in Network diagram----CPM
&PERT Cont’d

Step 2: Define Activity interdependencies

– The relationship among activities
– Decide which activities must precede and follow
others.
– It demands the understanding of the whole project
and the knowledge of applied technologies.
Result: preceding or succeeding activity list

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 Basic steps in Network diagram----CPM
&PERT Cont’d
• Step 3: Draw the Network
• Network connecting all of the activities
 Result: the network itself
Step 4: Assign time and /or resource
• Activity by activity
Time estimation methods:
 CPM: the use of normal duration: only one activity duration
 PERT estimation: three activity duration times
• For each task, estimate the lowest (optimistic), most likely, and
highest (pessimistic) durations, then use
• estimated Average time = (low + high + 4*most likely)/6
• steps 1 to 4 are also known as the planning phase
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 Basic steps in Network diagram----CPM
&PERT Cont’d
• Step 5: compute the longest time path through the
network
• this is called the critical path
• Key questions:
 What is the expected duration of the project?
 What are the earliest start and finish dates for each activity?
 What are the latest start and finish dates for each activity that does
not interfere with the project completion time?
 Analyzing these times in order to find the critical activities &
the amount of float in the non-critical ones.

 This step is scheduling

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 Basic steps in Network diagram----CPM
&PERT Cont’d

• Step 6: use the network to help plan, schedule,

monitor, and control the project.

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 I. Critical Path Method (CPM)
Step 1&2-Define the Project and identify the activities: Cables manufacturing company is bringing
a new product on line to be manufactured in their current facility in existing space. The owners
have identified 11 activities and their precedence relationships. Develop an AON for the project.

Immediate Duration
Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks)
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3
J Write documentation report H&I 4
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
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 Step 3- Diagram the Network for
Cables manufacturer

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 Step 4- Add Deterministic Time Estimates and
Connected Paths

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 Step 5: Calculate the Project
Completion Times
Paths Path duration
ABDEGHJK 40
ABDEGIJK 41
ACFGHJK 22
ACFGIJK 23
• The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the project’s
duration (project cannot finish in less time than its
longest path).
• ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path.

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 Some Network Definitions
• All activities on the critical path have zero slack.
• Slack defines how long non-critical activities can be
delayed without delaying the project.
• Slack = the activity’s late finish minus its early finish (or
its late start minus its early start)
• Earliest Start (ES) = the earliest finish of the immediately
preceding activity.
• Earliest Finish (EF) = is the ES plus the activity time
• Latest Start (LS) and Latest Finish (LF) = the latest an
activity can start (LS) or finish (LF) without delaying the
project completion.

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 Critical path determination

• The path with the longest duration is the critical

path (and the project duration)
– If any tasks on the critical path are delayed, the
overall project completion will be delayed.
• A manager might add resources to tasks on the
critical path, if that will actually help finish them
sooner.
– This technique can be called expediting or crashing
the project.

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 Critical Path Determination Cont’d

 Critical Path: –
o The series of activities all of which must finish
on time for the whole project to finish on time.

o Sometimes described as the longest path

through a network, hence the shortest project
time.

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 Earliest and latest start and finish time

 Earliest start and finish time:

 Calculate the Forward Pass by adding the durations
along each path in your network to:

 establish the earliest start (ES) and finish (EF) dates

for each activity on the network.

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 Earliest and latest start and finish time Cont’d

• A formula for computing Earliest start time:

o ESj = Maximum (EFi j)
Where i is the starting node number of all activities ending at Node j or for
activity i j.
 For example: If we compute the earliest start time at node 4
(j=4) and if its activities start from preceeding nodes, (i= 2 & 3),
the computation will be as follows:
 ES 4 = Maximum (EF2 , EF3 )
= Maximum (3, 5)
= 5 months ( which is the earliest start time at node 4).

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 Earliest and latest start and
finish time Cont’d
• A formula for computing Earliest Finish time:
o EFj = Maximum (EFi + tij)
Where i is the starting node number of all activities ending at Node j and t ij
is the time for activity i j.
 For example: If we compute the earliest finish time (EF) at
node 6 (j=6) and if its activities start from preceeding nodes,
(i= 4 & 5), the computation will be as follows:
 EF 6 = Maximum (EF5 + t56, EF4 +t46)
= Maximum (6+1, 5+3)
= Maximum ( 7, 8)
= 8 months ( which is the earliest time at node 6)

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 ES, EF Network

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 Earliest and latest start and finish time
Cont’d

Latest start and finish time:

– A backward pass is made through the network to
compute the latest start and latest finish times for
each activity in the network.
• Formula For computing Latest start time (LS):
o LSi = Minimum ( LS j – ti)
o Where i is the starting node number of all activities
ending at Node j or for activity i j.

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 Earliest and latest start and finish time
Cont’d
• Formula for Computing the Latest finish time:
• The latest finish time (LF) at node i is computed as follows:
– LFi = Minimum (LFj - tij)
– Where j is the ending node number of all activities starting at
node i and tij is the time for activity i j.
– Example: We will compute the latest finish time at node 4 (i.e.,
i=4).
– LF 4 = Minimum ( LF6 – t46, LF5- t45)
= Minimum (8-3, 7-1)
= Minimum (5, 6)
= 5 months ( the latest finish time at node 4).
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 LS, LF Network

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 Activity Slack/Float Time

Activity slack/Float time:

 Slack/float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed
without affecting the overall project duration.
 It is extra time available for completing an activity.
• For events on the critical path, the earliest finish (EF) time and
latest finish (LF) time are equal. This means that these events on
the critical path must start exactly on time and cannot be
delayed at all.
• In order to determine critical path, we can simply see at which nodes
the earliest finish and latest finish times are equal. (EF =LF)
• Activities on the critical path have no slack.

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 Activity Slack/Float Time Cont’d

• As a general rule, the critical path encompasses those activities in

the network that have no slack.
• In general, activity slack can be determined as follows:
– Slack/float time for activity i = Latest finish time (Activity i) - Earliest finish
time (activity i)
– Example: Slack for activity 5 = LF5 – EF5( Assume LF5=7 & EF5=6)
= 7-6
= 1 Month (This means activity 5 can be delayed 1
month without delaying the project.

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 Calculating Slack
Late Early Slack
Activity
Finish Finish (weeks)
A 4 4 0
B 10 10 0
C 25 7 18
D 16 16 0
E 30 30 0
F 30 12 18
G 32 32 0
H 35 34 1
I 35 35 0
J 39 39 0
K 41 41 0

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 II. Probabilistic Time Estimates
• As an alternative to CPM, PERT ( Project Evaluation and Review
Technique) uses probabilistic activity time.

• In probabilistic activity time we determine three time estimates for

each activity which enable us to estimate the mean and variance
for a beta distribution of the activity times.

• The three time estimates for each activity are the most likely time,
the optimistic time, and the pessimistic time.

• https://youtu.be/WrAf6zdteXI

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 Probabilistic Time Estimates Cont’d
• The most likely time is the time that would most
frequently occur if the activities were repeated many
times.
• The optimistic time is the shortest possible time within
which the activity could be completed if everything went
right.
• The pessimistic time is the longest possible time the
activity would require to be completed assuming
everything went wrong.

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 Probabilistic Time Estimates Cont’d
• The three time estimates can subsequently be used to estimate
the mean and variance of a beta distribution. If we let:
a= optimistic time estimate
m= most likely time estimate
b = pessimistic time estimate
Then mean is computed as follows:
Mean ( Expected time): t = a+4m+b
6

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 Revisiting Cables Production company Using
Probabilistic Time Estimates
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity Description
time time time
A Develop product specifications 2 4 6
B Design manufacturing process 3 7 10
C Source & purchase materials 2 3 5
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment 4 7 9
E Receive & install tooling & equipment 12 16 20
F Receive materials 2 5 8
G Pilot production run 2 2 2
H Evaluate product design 2 3 4
I Evaluate process performance 2 3 5
J Write documentation report 2 4 6
K Transition to manufacturing 2 2 2

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 Calculating Expected Task Times
optimistic  4most likely   pessimistic
Expected time 
6
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected
Activity
time time time time
A 2 4 6 4
B 3 7 10 6.83
C 2 3 5 3.17
D 4 7 9 6.83
E 12 16 20 16
F 2 5 8 5
G 2 2 2 2
H 2 3 4 3
I 2 3 5 3.17
J 2 4 6 4
K 2 2 2 2
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 Network Diagram with Expected Activity
Times

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 Estimated Path Durations through the
Network

Activities on paths Expected duration

ABDEGHJK 44.66
ABDEGIJK 44.83
ACFGHJK 23.17
ACFGIJK 23.34
• ABDEGIJK is the expected critical path & the
project has an expected duration of 44.83
weeks

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 Exercise

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 Activity Time Estimates

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 Required

• Draw the project relationship/PERT network

• Find the critical path
• Determine the slack variables

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 ….END of Chapter 7………

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 …for your attention
and
active participation!
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