REGIONAL REALMS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 Europe
 The Middle East
 Africa
 South Asia
 Central & South America
REGIONAL REALMS
• In the regional realm, geopolitics plays a significant role in shaping the relationships between nations,
especially those sharing borders or competing for resources.
• One of the key factors that influence geopolitics in the regional realm is geography. Countries located
near each other may have competing interests or overlapping territorial claims.
• Another factor is resources, which can influence a country's economic and political power. The Middle
East, for example, has been shaped by its abundant oil reserves, with countries in the region using their
resources to exert influence on the global stage.
• Political power also plays a crucial role in regional geopolitics. Strong regional powers such as China,
Russia, and the United States can exert significant influence over neighboring countries, shaping the
political landscape and international relations. The ongoing tension between China and Taiwan, for
example, is a result of China's desire to assert its power over the island.
• In summary, regional geopolitics is shaped by a complex interplay of geography, resources, and power.
Understanding these factors is crucial for predicting and managing conflicts and building stable
relationships between nations.
EUROPE
• The geopolitical context of Europe is shaped by its history, geography, and the interactions between its member states,
as well as external factors such as the influence of the United States, Russia, and China.

• Europe is a continent with a rich history of conflict and cooperation between its various states. Over the centuries,
various empires have risen and fallen, borders have shifted, and alliances have formed and dissolved. This has left a
complex legacy of political, cultural, and linguistic diversity, as well as unresolved historical grievances.

• European colonialism changed the world. The enduring consequences are linguistic, cultural, political, and economic.
Much of the world was understood, represented, and narrated from a narrow range of countries in Europe.

• Europe also has important relationships with other global powers. The United States has historically been a close ally of
Europe, but recent tensions over issues such as trade, defense spending, and climate change have strained the
transatlantic relationship. Russia remains a significant influence in Eastern Europe and has been accused of meddling in
the internal affairs of EU member states. China's growing economic and political influence in Europe has also raised
concerns about the potential for geopolitical competition and tensions.

• Today, the European Union (EU) is the primary institution of European integration. The EU is a unique political and
economic entity that has brought together formerly rival nations in a project of peace, prosperity, and cooperation.
However, the EU faces several challenges, including Brexit, rising populism and nationalism, economic disparities, and
external pressures such as migration, terrorism, and climate change.
HOTSPOT: BREXIT
• Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, is one of the most significant geopolitical
hotspots in Europe in recent years. The UK joined the European Union in 1973 and voted to leave in a referendum in
2016. The UK formally left the EU on January 31, 2020, after years of negotiations and political turmoil.

• This has led to significant implications for the UK and the EU, including economic, political, and social
consequences. One of the most immediate consequences was the impact on trade, with the UK losing access to the
EU's single market and customs union. This has resulted in increased bureaucratic hurdles for businesses and the
potential for disruption to supply chains.

• The political implications of Brexit are also significant, with the UK's departure from the EU raising questions about
the future of the European project and the UK's relationship with other European countries. The UK's decision to
leave the EU was also driven by concerns about immigration, which has fueled nationalist and anti-immigrant
sentiment in the country.

• The social implications of Brexit are also significant, with concerns about the impact on citizens' rights and the
potential for increased social divisions within the UK. The Brexit vote has highlighted divisions between different
regions of the UK, as well as between younger and older generations.

• The negotiations around Brexit have been complex and contentious, with both sides seeking to protect their interests
and prioritize their citizens' welfare. The negotiations have highlighted the importance of diplomacy and cooperation
in addressing complex geopolitical issues.

• Overall, Brexit remains a significant geopolitical hotspot in Europe, with the potential to impact the region's
political, economic, and social stability for years to come.
HOTSPOT: UKRAINE
• The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is one of the most significant geopolitical hotspots in Europe. The conflict began in
2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, a region that had been part of Ukraine since 1954. Russia's move was widely
condemned by the international community, and the annexation triggered a conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-
Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

• The conflict has resulted in a significant loss of life and displacement of people, with estimates suggesting that over
13,000 people have been killed, and over 1.5 million people have been displaced since 2014. The situation remains
volatile, with frequent outbreaks of violence and periodic ceasefire agreements that have failed to hold.

• The conflict is complex, with multiple parties involved and a range of underlying political, economic, and social
issues. On one side are Ukrainian forces and their allies, who are seeking to maintain Ukraine's territorial integrity and
sovereignty. On the other side are pro-Russian separatists, who are seeking greater autonomy or even independence for
the regions they control. Russia is widely believed to support the separatists, providing them with military, financial,
and political backing.

• The conflict has significant implications for the region's security and stability, with concerns about the potential for a
wider conflict involving Russia and other European powers. The situation has also strained relations between Russia
and the European Union, with the EU imposing economic sanctions on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine.

• The conflict in Ukraine is a reminder of the fragility of the geopolitical situation in Europe and the potential for
tensions to escalate quickly. It highlights the importance of diplomacy and cooperation in resolving conflicts and
maintaining stability in the region.
THE MIDDLE EAST
• The geopolitical context of the Middle East is shaped by a complex mix of historical, cultural,
religious, and political factors. The region has been at the center of world affairs for centuries due to its
strategic location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, and its vast oil and gas reserves.
• One of the defining features of the Middle East is its religious and ethnic diversity. The region is home
to a range of religions, including Islam, Judaism, Christianity, and various ancient faiths. This diversity
has been a source of both conflict and cooperation, as different groups have sought to establish their
dominance over others.
• The Middle East is also characterized by a long history of conflict and political instability. The region
has been subject to foreign domination and intervention, particularly by European powers in the 19th
and early 20th centuries. The aftermath of World War I saw the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the
establishment of a system of nation-states in the region, which has often been marked by internal and
external tensions.
• One of the most significant factors shaping the geopolitical context of the Middle East is the ongoing
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 has been a source of tension
and conflict in the region, with the Palestinian people seeking an independent state alongside Israel.
• The Middle East is also a key player in global energy markets, with the region home to some of the
world's largest oil and gas reserves. This has made the region a focus of strategic competition between
major powers such as the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union.
HOT SPOT: SYRIA
• One of the key reasons why Syria is a geopolitical hotspot is its location. Syria
is located in the heart of the Middle East and shares borders with several
countries, including Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. This strategic
location has made Syria a crucial transit point for trade and commerce, as well
as a critical corridor for the movement of military personnel and weapons.
• However, the most pressing factor that has made Syria a geopolitical hotspot in
recent years is the ongoing conflict that began in 2011. The conflict, which
started as a peaceful protest against the government, quickly spiraled into a
full-blown civil war. The conflict has drawn in various regional and global
powers, with Russia and Iran supporting the Syrian government, and the United
States, Turkey, and several European countries backing the opposition.
• The war has resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with millions of
Syrians displaced and hundreds of thousands of lives lost. Moreover, the
conflict has spilled over into neighboring countries, exacerbating tensions in an
already volatile region.
HOT SPOT: ISRAEL/PALESTINE
• The roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be traced back to the late 19th century, when Jewish
settlers began immigrating to Palestine, which was then part of the Ottoman Empire. In the
following years, tensions grew between the Jewish immigrants and the Palestinian Arab population,
culminating in the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, which led to the establishment of the State of Israel and
the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
• Since then, the conflict has continued to simmer, with both sides claiming sovereignty over the same
territory. The conflict has taken on many forms, including military clashes, terrorist attacks, and
diplomatic battles. The situation has been further complicated by the involvement of regional and
global powers, such as the United States, Iran, and Russia, who have their own strategic interests in
the region.
• The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering, with thousands of lives lost and millions of
Palestinians living in refugee camps or under occupation. The situation has also had broader regional
implications, fueling anti-Israeli sentiment and contributing to tensions between Israel and its
neighbors.
• The situation is further complicated by the deep-rooted religious, cultural, and historical ties that
both Israelis and Palestinians have to the region, making any resolution to the conflict difficult to
achieve.
HOT SPOT: YEMEN
• Yemen occupies a strategic position at the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, overlooking the Bab El-
Mandeb strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This makes Yemen a crucial transit point for oil
shipments, as well as a potential staging ground for maritime security operations.

• Yemen is also rich in natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and minerals, which make it an attractive
target for foreign investment and a potential source of economic growth.

• However, it has been plagued by instability and conflict for decades, with various armed groups and political
factions vying for control. The most recent conflict began in 2015 when Houthi rebels, who are aligned with
Iran, seized control of the capital, Sana'a, and other parts of the country. This sparked a military intervention by
a Saudi-led coalition, which supports the Yemeni government.

• The conflict has resulted in a significant humanitarian crisis, with thousands of civilians killed and millions
displaced. Yemen is currently facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions of people in
need of humanitarian assistance due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and a deteriorating economic situation.

• Moreover, Yemen's instability and ongoing conflict have regional and global implications, contributing to
tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and raising concerns about the spread of extremist groups such as Al-
Qaeda and ISIS.
AFRICA
• The geopolitical context of Africa is shaped by a complex mix of historical, cultural, social, and political
factors. The continent is home to 54 countries with diverse languages, religions, and ethnic groups, making it
one of the most culturally diverse regions in the world.

• One of the defining features of Africa's geopolitical context is its history of colonialism and its impact on the
continent's political, economic, and social development. The Berlin Conference of 1884-1885 formalized
European colonization of Africa, resulting in the carving up of the continent into artificial borders and the
exploitation of its resources. The legacy of colonialism continues to influence Africa's political and economic
structures today.

• Another defining feature of Africa's geopolitical context is its struggles with conflict and instability. The
continent has experienced a range of conflicts, from civil wars and ethnic conflicts to regional and
international conflicts. The reasons for these conflicts are complex and varied, ranging from political and
economic grievances to identity-based tensions. Conflict and instability have had a significant impact on
Africa's development, causing widespread poverty and hindering economic growth.

• Africa is also facing a range of environmental challenges, including climate change, deforestation,
desertification, and land degradation. These challenges are impacting the continent's social, economic, and
political stability, and have significant implications for global sustainability.

• Despite these challenges, Africa is a continent of enormous potential, with vast natural resources, a young and
growing population, and a rapidly developing economy. The African Union (AU) is working towards the
integration and development of the continent, promoting peace and security, and advancing sustainable
economic growth.
THE ECONOMIC LEGACY OF COLONIZATION
We can identify at least four legacies of the age of imperialism in Africa.

1. First, there was an effective transfer of wealth from Africa to Europe. The most obvious being the slave trade in
which more than 12.5 million people were snatched from their homes and taken on ships to the New World. Two
million died in route. Large parts of Africa were stripped of their human capital while the economies of the New
World were valorized with the labor, skill, and ingenuity of enslaved Africans and their descendants.

2. Second, the economies of regions in Africa were oriented toward the exploitation and export of raw materials to the
metropoles. Africa became a primary commodity-producer dependent on a narrow range of primary commodities
subject to fluctuating world prices. The value-added work, such as turning cocoa into chocolate, or diamonds into
gemstones, or rubber into tires was done in the metropole. This trading arrangement laid the basis for industrial
growth and increased national wealth in the metropole while stripping wealth from the colonies.

3. Third, agriculture was transformed; cash crops such as cotton, rubber, groundnuts, and coffee were introduced into
the smallholder farming system. With some of the best land appropriated in settler societies, an expanding number
of smallholders were expected to produce more cash crops. The result was often soil degradation and long-term
environmental damage.

4. Fourth, Africa was colonized on the cheap. There was little attempt to create self-sustaining economies and
societies. It was not like Australia or Canada, where democratic societies were established as part of economic
development. The emphasis was on cheap exploitation rather than long-term investment.
FRAGILE & FAILED/FAILING STATES
• A state tends to be failed or failing especially when economic and political
inequality is mapped onto racial, ethnic, or religious difference; it lacks
national cohesion; the central authorities are failing to meet populous
demands; and the government is faced with severe shocks such as disasters
and rapid economic decline.
• Fragile and failed states are caused by numerous triggering elements,
including but not limited to:
• environmental pressures, made more extreme in a time of global climate
changes;
• very rapid population growth;
• government corruption and incompetence; and
• societal breakdown in the wake of famines, conflict, extreme endemic
violence, and wars.
• In reality, extreme triggering events can cluster in time and space in a
cascading spiral of bad outcomes made worse as they fold into and feed off
each other. The stability of states varies over time. A war, a famine, or the
entry of outside forces can all turn a functioning state into a failed or
failing state. The opposite may also happen as stability returns with a more
functioning state.
STABLE STATES

• At the other end of the continuum are more

stable, resilient states. If Finland is
considered the most stable with a rank of 178
and Yemen the least stable with a rank of 1,
then we get some idea of the relative position
of the more stable African countries in table
9.2.
• To say that these are stable states is not to
imply they do not have problems. They face
the same sort of fiscal and crisis issues as
many other countries. But they do so from a
platform of relative political stability.
HOTSPOT: BOKO HARAM
• Boko Haram stared as a nonviolent movement in 2002 in the Borno region of northern
Nigeria. Its origins lie in the relative poverty and political marginalization of northern
Nigeria compared to the more affluent southern regions. It was also an expression of
discontent at the prevalence of corruption in Nigerian society. The country has valuable oil
reserves but much of the wealth is siphoned off by a tiny political elite. Few benefits
percolate to the ordinary people in northern Nigeria.
• From 2009, Boko Haram morphed into a more violent organization and started to attack
public buildings and has lost territory since 2015 with the renewed campaigns of the
Nigerian state, but that loss now ap-pears as only a brief lull in another round of attacks on
infrastructure and public buildings. Boko Haram still controls significant territory in the
more rural areas of northern Nigeria and nearby countries. In its operation, Boko Haram had
displaced more than two million people and killed thousands.
• Nigeria, despite being a weak state, is Africa’s largest economy and most populous country
with enough regional and global influence to preclude the necessary international
intervention. Even weak states, if they have international leverage, can resist international
pressure for action.
SOUTH ASIA
• The geopolitical context of South Asia is shaped by a complex mix of historical, cultural, religious, and political
factors. With two nuclear powers in permanent conflict, a long civil war in Afghanistan, simmering border issues,
and endemic ethnic and religious tensions, this is a major hotspot on the world political map.
• The largest geopolitical rupture in the region is the continuing conflict between India and Pakistan. Since the two
countries became independent from the UK in 1947, they have fought three wars, engaged in numerous proxy
campaigns, and spawned an enduring standoff over Kashmir. There are also growing tensions along the China-India
border as these two emerging powers compete for regional hegemony.
• One of the defining features of South Asia's geopolitical context is its religious and ethnic diversity. The region is
home to a range of religions, including Hinduism, Islam, Buddhism, and Christianity, as well as numerous ethnic
groups. This diversity has been a source of both conflict and cooperation, as different groups have sought to
establish their dominance over others.
• The region has also been subject to foreign intervention and influence, particularly by global superpowers such as
the United States, China, and Russia. South Asia's strategic location, natural resources, and growing economic
potential have made it a focus of geopolitical competition and interest.
• In recent years, South Asia has emerged as a key player in global economic and geopolitical affairs. India, the
region's largest and most populous country, has experienced rapid economic growth and is projected to become one
of the world's largest economies in the coming years.
• South Asia also faces a range of challenges, including poverty, corruption, environmental degradation, and social
inequality. While the region faces significant challenges, it also holds enormous potential for growth and
development in the years ahead.
HOTSPOT: THE INDO-PAKISTAN CONFLICT
• The two countries emerged from the bloodbath of partition to become unrelenting
enemies. The tension between the two is marked by outbreaks of war, gray zone activity,
and constant competition.
• The two adversaries are locked and loaded with nuclear weapons. The conflict seems
embedded into the fabric of each society with both seeing an existential threat in the other.
In India, a rising Hindu national-ism sees Islamic Pakistan as a political and religious rival.
And in Pakistan, the powerful military that controls large parts of the economy as well as
much of the direction of foreign policy tends to see things from the military perspective.
• A rising Hindi nationalism in one country and a powerful military in the other, combined
with religious fundamentalism in both, do not provide much confidence in the countries
reverting to normal politics any time soon. And Kashmir is the open sore that refuses to
heal.
HOTSPOT: AFGHANISTAN
• Geography is not kind to Afghanistan. Situated in the heart of Asia, it was long the stage for imperial designs from
Alexander the Great to the rivalry between Britain and Russia in the nineteenth century as well as between the
United States and Muslim fundamentalists in the twenty-first century. Afghanistan is a war-torn land.

• The recent history of Afghanistan is a complex and often sordid tale as murderous factions try to annihilate each
other and neighboring states fan ethnic tensions and religious differences in order to promote their own interests:
Saudis, for example, to promote a strict form of Islam or the Pakistani intelligence agencies eager to back
warlords in Afghanistan as part of their strategic maneuvering against India.

• The United States, and the British and Soviets before them, learned the hard way that interference in Afghanistan
can mean the death of an empire.

• U.S. intervention did little to improve the lot of the average Afghan and it remains one of the poorest countries in
the region. Corruption is rife. There is little to show for the billions of dollars of foreign aid. It is an authoritarian
kleptocracy where the elite overwhelmingly benefit from the foreign aid and development funds. The one sector
that does work well in Afghanistan is the narcotics trade of poppy growing and opium production: it is now worth
close to $2 billion. Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of opium and could be described as a “narcostate.”
Most of the heroin consumption in Europe derives from Afghanistan.
CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA
• The geopolitical context of Central and South America is shaped by a complex mix of historical, cultural,
social, and political factors. The region is home to 33 countries, each with its unique history, culture, and
political system.
• Over the past fifty years, the region has experienced a wave of democratization and marked declines in
absolute poverty. From a distance, the region appears as a stable geopolitical area. But the variation is
enormous. Parts of Central America remain a scene of political instability and significant issues persist
across South America.
• European colonial powers controlled much of the region for centuries, resulting in the exploitation of
resources, forced labor, and cultural suppression. The legacy of colonialism continues to influence the
region's political and economic structures, with disparities in wealth, power, and social inequality.
• Central and South America also have a complex relationship with the United States, which has a history of
intervention and influence in the region. The US has supported right-wing authoritarian governments and
engaged in covert operations to advance its geopolitical interests, resulting in political instability and
conflicts in several countries.
• Although the region is facing a range of social and environmental challenges, including poverty,
inequality, violence, and environmental degradation, it also has enormous economic potential, with
abundant natural resources, a young and growing population, and a rich cultural heritage. Many countries
in the region are seeking to strengthen regional integration, improve governance, and promote economic
development through various initiatives.
HOTSPOT: NARCOSTATES
• The relative weakness of the states in the Caribbean and Central America makes them vulnerable to the
pernicious effects of the drug trade that flows through the region, connecting suppliers of narcotics in
Central and South America to the world’s biggest market. Along this corridor we can find struggling states,
failed states, and narcostates.
• We can define a narcostate as one controlled and essentially corrupted by drug-trade organizations (DTOs).
The narcoeconomy has an insidious, corrupting influence undermining the rule of law, effective policing,
and non-corrupt judiciary. But it is not simply that the narcoeconomy corrupts the government. Corrupt
governments enable the narcoeconomy to gain a foothold, flourish, and dominate. The cartels easily
outmatch the limited re-sources of municipal government and local police. It is not only that crime creates
corruption, but also that the corruption of public institutions facilitates crime.
• Today high mass unemployment, high levels of violence, pervasive power of criminal gangs, and the
corrupting influence of the narcoeconomy mark these countries. Border security is weak, and police
enforcement is lax and often corrupt.
• The derisive term “banana republics” was used to describe these countries because they based their
economies on primary tropical commodities such as bananas. The term had other more specific connotations
because the U.S. United Fruit Company played an outsized role in the economy and policies of the region.
For many years, these narcostates were republics but certainly not democracies; wealthy elites and army
officer corps dominated economic and political power. The result was small, poor states where government
often lacked legitimacy. There was a weak rule of law and a poorly developed civil society.
HOTSPOT: THE FALKLANDS
ISLANDS/ISLAS MALVINAS
• Sovereignty of the Falkland Islands, known as Islas Malvinas in Argentina, is a source of continuing
disputes between the UK and Argentina. This cluster of two main island groups, close to the tip of South
America, became a sheltering port for early whalers sailing the southern oceans and numerous countries
laid claim to them, including France, Spain, Argentina, and the United States. They came under effective
British control in 1833, which Argentina protested at the time and has never stopped. When it joined the
new body of the United Nations in 1945, Argentina again raised its claim to what it refers to as “Las
Malvinas.”
• Britain and Argentina restored diplomatic relations in 1989 but Argentina continues to make the return of
the Falklands to Argentina sovereignty an important priority of foreign relations, as well as a part of its
constitution. The almost three thousand permanent residents continue to want to remain British while the
existence of oil and deposits in the surrounding seas add an extra dimension to competing territorial
claims.
• Possession of the Falklands gives the UK major territorial claims to energy reserves in the South Atlantic
and even in the Antarctic, if and when commercial exploitation is allowed. The Falklands still have
geopolitical and geoeconomic significance.