Material Variability…

… or
“how do we know what we have?”
Why are materials and
material properties variable?
 Metals
 Concrete
 Asphalt
 Wood
 Plastic
Types of Variance
 Material
 Sampling Cumulative
 Testing

Errors vs. Blunders

Precision and Accuracy
 Precision – “variability of repeat
measurements under carefully controlled
conditions”
 Accuracy – “conformity of results to the true
value”
 Bias – “tendency of an estimate to deviate in
one direction”

Addressed in test methods and specifications in

standards
 Accuracy vs. Precision
Bias

Precision Accuracy Precision

without without and
Accuracy Precision Accuracy
Repeatibility vs. Reproducibility

 Repeatability
 Within laboratory

 Reproducibility
 Between laboratory
 Bias
Sampling
 Representative random samples are
used to estimate the properties of the
entire lot or population.

 These samples must be subjected to

statistical analysis
 Sampling - Stratified Random
Sampling Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

Lot #1 Lot # 2 Lot # 2

 Need concept of random samples
 Example of highway paving
 Consider each day of production as sublot

 Randomly assign sample points in pavement

 Use random number table to assign positions

 Each sample must have an equal chance of

being selected, “representive sample”

Parameters of variability
 Average value
 Central tendency or mean
 Measures of variability
 Called dispersion
 Range - highest minus lowest
 Standard deviation, s
 Coefficient of variation, CV%
(100%) (s) / Mean
 Population vs. sample
 Basic Statistics
1
2
 n  2
n   xi  x  
x i  i 1
s

x i 1 n 1 
 
n 




Arithmetic Mean Standard Deviation

“average” “spread”
Basic Statistics
 Need both average and mean to properly
quantify material variability

 For example:

mean = 40,000 psi and st dev = 300

vs.
mean = 1,200 psi and st. dev. = 300 psi
Coefficient of Variation
 A way to combine
‘mean’ and ‘standard
deviation’ to give a
more useful
description of the s
material variability n%   100
x
Population vs. Lot and Sublot
 Population - all that exists
 Lot – unit of material produced by
same means and materials
 Sublot – partition within a lot
 Large spread
Normal Distribution
Small spread
= mean
Frequency

34.1% 34.1%

2.2% 2.2%
13.6% 13.6%

-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3

LRFD(Load and resistance factor design method)
for Instance…
A very small probability that the load
will be greater than the resistance

Load Resistance

Mean load Mean resistance

Control Charts
 Quality control tools
 Variability documentation
 Efficiency
 Troubleshooting aids

 Types of control charts

 Single tests
 X-bar chart (Moving means of several tests)
 R chart (Moving ranges of several tests)
 Control Charts (X-bar chart for example)
Moving mean of 3 consecutive tests
Mean of 2nd 3 tests
UCL

Target
Result

LCL

Mean of 1st 3 tests

Sample Number
 Use of Control Charts

Data has shifted

Data is spreading

Refer to the text for other examples of trends

 Example
A structure requires steel bolts with a strength of 80 ksi. The standard
deviation for the manufacturer’s production is 2 ksi. A statistically sound
set of representative random samples will be drawn from the lot and
tested. What must the average value of the production be to ensure that
no more than 0.13% of the samples are below 80 ksi? What about no more
than 10%?
Req’d mean = ?? 1. Solution to 1.
1. z ~ -3  -3
80 ksi
2.  – 3ksi
3. Required mean = 86 ksi
4. What does it mean?

2. Solution to 2.
1. z~ -1.2817  -1.2817
2. – 1.2817 = 80 ksi
-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 3. Required mean = 82.6 ksi
4. What is the difference between 1
and 2
Control Charts
 Quality control tools
 Variability documentation
 Efficiency
 Troubleshooting aids

 Types of control charts

 Single tests
 X-bar chart (Moving means of several tests)
 R chart (Moving ranges of several tests)
 Control Charts (X-bar chart for example)
Moving mean of 3 consecutive tests
Mean of 2nd 3 tests
UCL

Target
Result

LCL

Mean of 1st 3 tests

Sample Number
 Use of Control Charts

Data has shifted

Data is spreading

Refer to the text for other examples of trends

Other Useful Statistics in CE
 Regression analysis
 Hypothesis testing
 Etc.