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Pert - Program Evaluation & Review Technique
Pert - Program Evaluation & Review Technique
3/20/2003
Purpose:
3/20/2003
Learning Objectives:
Assuming a normal distribution, be able to make statistical inferences about estimated completion times, based on variable task times.
3/20/2003
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CVEN 349 - Maxwell 3/20/2003
Lo = Estimate for Minimum Value ML = Estimate for Most Likely Value Hi = Estimate for Maximum Value
Use the Delphi Technique or some other systematic process to get estimates for Lo, ML, Hi Central Limit Theorem (CTL) forces Normality
CVEN 349 - Maxwell 3/20/2003
Given N samples of size M drawn from the same population of unknown distribution. The Mean of the distribution of the sample means (DSM) is an unbiased estimator of the population mean. The Variance of the DSM is an unbiased estimator of the Variance of the population divided by the sample size M. Standard Deviation = SQRT of the Variance The DSM approaches normal as M approaches infinity. M = 30 is generally OK.
3/20/2003
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CVEN 349 - Maxwell 3/20/2003
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Class Assessment
Take out a piece of paper and write 1 sentence on the least clear topic of the day
Pass it forward.
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3/20/2003