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Estimation Error and
Estimation Error and
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Motivation
• The Markowitz Mean-Variance Efficiency is the standard
optimization framework for modern asset management.
• Given the expected returns, standard deviations and
correlations of assets (along with constraints), the
optimization procedure solves for the set of portfolio
weights that has the lowest risk for a given level of
portfolio expected returns.
• Standard algorithms (linear programming/quadratic
programming) are available to compute the efficient
frontier with or without short-selling/borrowing
constraints.
Motivation
• A number of objections to MV Efficiency have been
raised:
1. Investor Utility: Utility might involve preferences for more than
means and variances and might be a complex function.
2. Multi-period framework: The one-period nature of static
optimization does not take dynamic factors into account.
3. Liabilities: Little attention is given to the liability side.
4. Instability and Ambiguity: Small changes in input assumptions
often imply large changes in the optimized portfolio. The MVE
procedure overuses statistically estimated information and
magnifies estimation errors.
• Jorion (1992, Financial Analyst Journal) addresses
“Portfolio Optimization in Practice” and proposes the
first resampling method.
Motivation
• Richard Michaud (1998) has built a business around
resampling. Implemented in Northfield optimizers.
• Ibbotson Associates also uses a resampling technique
The Procedure
The procedure described below has U.S. Patent #6,003,018 by Michaud et
al., December 19, 1999.
The Procedure
Columns are Asset Weights
Row E[r] Asset 1 Asset 2 Asset 3 Asset 4 Asset 5
1 0.05
2 0.06
3 0.07
4 0.08
5 0.09
6 0.1
7 0.11
8 0.12 Matrix = ak k=16 rows
9 0.13
10 0.14
11 0.15
12 0.16
13 0.17
14 0.18
15 0.19
16 0.2
m=5 columns
The Procedure
• Now begin the Monte Carlo analysis. Generate i from the
likelihood function L(). Hence i and are statistically equivalent.
• We know that the efficient weights for , are ak. If we apply, ak*,
then we must be to the right of the original frontier. In other
words, if ak is the best, then ak* cannot be the best. However,
importantly, ak* is taking estimation error into account.
Variations
• Instead of using K increments for the indexation based
on the high and low returns, assume a quadratic utility
function is used.