3107 1638171633336 CC6052 Intell Sys and AR

Other intelligent systems
Augmented reality
The disciplines of AI (the roots) and
the applications
Source: Turban (2001)
This week
Overview of concepts and technologies being

used in the development of intelligent systems
 (Artificial) Neural Networks
 Genetic algorithms
 Fuzzy logic
 Intelligent agents
 Game theory
Brief introduction to the concepts, and how these
ideas are being applied in MSS development
Concepts relating to Augmented Reality (AR)

Artificial Neural Networks
Neural networks - introduction
 Artificial neural networks (ANN)

◦ system of programs and data structures
◦ “imitates” the operation of the human brain
(as so many new technologies are said to do...)
◦ theoretically involves many parallel processors
◦ in practice, neural networks are often simulated
Neural networks - introduction
 Neural network is initially trained

i.e. fed large amounts of training data
(inputs produce a known set of outputs)
 Neural network uses rules learned from patterns

in the data to construct a hidden layer of logic
 Hidden layer(s) processes inputs, classifying according

to the experience of the model
Neural networks - structure
Input layer Hidden layer Output layer
Income
Good
Debt credit risk
Age Bad credit

risk
Residence
Source: Laudon & Laudon, 2004

Neural Networks - training
 Signals between nodes

(neurons) are controlled
 Known as
“adjusting the weights”
 Weights adjusted iteratively

until desired output achieved
 ‘Learning’ can be supervised

or unsupervised
Machine learning
 Supervised mode
◦ uses inputs for which desired outputs are known

e.g. a historical set of loan applications
◦ difference between desired and actual output used to correct weights

on neural network
Machine learning
 Unsupervised mode
 only the inputs are known!
 the network is self-organising
 outputs derived by the network may not be

meaningful to the user...
Neural networks - benefits
 Good at some tasks that people are good at

 Suitable for solving unstructured & semi-structured problems
 Pattern recognition, even from incomplete information
 Classification, abstraction and generalisation
 In theory, processing can be in parallel for faster computations
 Ability to adapt to new data: learning
 Copes with fault-tolerant situations
Neural networks - limitations
 Not good at tasks that people are not good at

 Not suitable for basic data processing or conventional
arithmetic calculations (conventional computer system better)
 Need a vast amount of data
 Might not ‘learn’ what is expected
 Limited to classification and pattern recognition
 Lack of explanatory capabilities
 Not economically viable for parallel processing
Neural networks - applications
Current applications of neural networks include:

◦ oil exploration data analysis
◦ weather prediction
◦ interpretation of nucleotide sequences in biology labs
◦ identifying credit card fraud by spotting changes in patterns
of customer spending behaviour, e.g. Visa
◦ credit card approval
◦ bankruptcy prediction
◦ Optical Character Recognition (OCR)
◦ speech recognition
◦ stock market predictions
Genetic Algorithms
Genetic algorithms -
introduction
 Genetic algorithms
also called
◦ adaptive computation
◦ evolutionary programming
 problem-solving techniques
 conceptually based adaptation to environment
 process of evolution
Genetic algorithms - introduction
 programmed to work the way populations solve problems:

changing and re-organising their component parts using
 reproduction
 crossover
 mutation
 solutions alter and combine
 worst ones are discarded
 better ones go on to produce even better solutions
Genetic algorithms - a simple example (1)
 Example based on the board game ‘Mastermind’
 Imagine we are trying to guess a 6-digit binary number
 The number that has been set by our opponent is:

001010
but we don’t know this
Genetic algorithms - a simple example (2)
 We make guesses and get scores for what is right
e.g. 111101 scores 1 because one digit is correct,
but we don’t know which one
 Then we guess again and get another score…

… how many guesses before we get it right?
 There are 64 possible combinations…

With random guessing:
 average 32 attempts to guess the right number…
 but it could take the full 64 guesses
 How it could be done using genetic algorithms…?

 The secret number we are trying to guess is 001010
 With GA approach, we present random guesses, say

◦ A – 110100 (scores 1)
◦ B – 111101 (scores 1)
◦ C – 111111 (scores 2)
◦ D – 000000 (scores 4)
◦ E – 011011 (scores 4)
◦ F – 101010 (scores 5)
◦ G – 010101 (scores 1)
 Discard the lowest scoring guesses, A, B, C and G

 Now we have D, E and F to use
Genetic algorithms - a simple
example (4)
 Try splits...
 first 2 digits from one parent , last four digits from the other
 D and E
 H – 010000 (scores 3)
 I – 001011 (scores 5)
 E and F
 J - 011010 (scores 4)
 K- 101011 (scores 4)
 D and F
 L – 100000 (scores 4)
 M – 001010 (scores 6) – success!
Genetic algorithms - a simple
example (5)
 Continue to take the best guesses until we match
001010 scores 6
Success! We have found the number

Genetic algorithms - terminology
 Set of instructions performed to solve a problem

◦ ‘algorithm’
 Each iteration
◦ ‘generation’
 Score calculated
◦ ‘fitness function’
Genetic algorithms - terminology
 Methods used to reproduce (generate new offspring)

are genetic operators and include:
 splitting and mating is called crossover

 some genes from "mother", some genes from "father"
 unique individual created with some inheritance from parents
(sometimes twins might occur – same pattern of 0s and 1s)
 more rarely might also introduce mutation

(randomly changing one of the digits)
Genetic algorithms - applications
Genetic algorithms have been applied to

◦ Large-scale combinatorial (difficult) mathematical
programming problems
◦ Dynamic process control
◦ Scheduling problems and production planning
◦ Transportation and routing problems
◦ Optimisation of complex machine design
e.g. General Electric used GA to optimise jet turbine
aircraft engine design (each design change required
changes in up to 100 variables)
◦ Producing police sketches of criminals
Fuzzy Logic
 Fuzzy logic
◦ based on "degrees of truth”
◦ rather than "true or false" (1 or 0) Boolean logic
 Can everything be described in binary terms?
◦ A philosophical question...
 Yes? (true)
 No? (false)
 Sometimes? Maybe? It depends... ( fuzzy)
 “Are we nearly there yet...?”
 the answer could be just yes or no...
 ...or it depends whether we have just left, are half-way
there, or expect to arrive in 5 minutes...
Fuzzy logic - introduction
 In practice, data in use might be uncertain
 some state between true and false
 Fuzzy logic
 allows 1 (true) and 0 (false) as extreme cases of truth
 encompasses various states of truth in between
e.g. cold, cool, warm, hot might have overlapping

temperature ranges…
room temperature is ‘cool’ is between 50ºF and 70ºF,

so we can definitely say 60ºF - 67ºF is ‘cool’
but 70ºF is on the cusp between warm and cool

(like the Grand Old Duke of York…)
Upper
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
“If temperature cool or cold and humidity low while outdoor wind high
and outdoor temperature low, raise heat and humidity in the room.”
- example taken from Laudon & Laudon (2004)

Fuzzy logic - example Upper
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
70o F degrees is the norm:

a comfortable temperature
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
40o F degrees is too cold:

an uncomfortable temperature
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
100o F degrees is too hot:

an uncomfortable temperature
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
60o F degrees is cool:

but not an uncomfortable temperature
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
80o F degrees is warm:

but not an uncomfortable temperature
limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
?
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
Is 90o F degrees warm or hot?

limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
?
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
Is 55o F degrees cool or cold?

limit
Norm
Cold Cool Warm Hot
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
? ?
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
temperature
Is 75o F degrees warm or the norm?

Is 65o F degrees cool or the norm?
Fuzzy logic - applications
 Fuzzy logic has been applied in Japan:

◦ Sendai’s subway system used fuzzy logic controls to accelerate
smoothly
◦ Mitsubishi Heavy Industries implemented fuzzy logic controls in
air conditioners (reducing power consumption by 20%)
◦ Auto-focus device in cameras relies on fuzzy logic
 … and in the US
◦ A Wall Street firm uses a system based on fuzzy logic to select
companies for potential acquisition
Intelligent Agents
Intelligent agents -
introduction
 Intelligent agents are programs that...
◦ work in the background without direct human
intervention...
◦ perform specific, repetitive, and predictable tasks...
◦ for an individual user, business process, or software
application...
◦ with some degree of independence
 Agents use in-built/learned knowledge to
accomplish tasks/make decisions for the user
Intelligent agents - levels
 Level 0 - e.g. web browsers

◦ agents retrieve documents for user under direct orders
e.g. user specifies URL
 Level 1 - search engines

◦ agents provide a user-initiated search facility
Turban (2001)
Intelligent agents - levels
 Level 2 - software agents

o maintain user’s profiles
o monitor Internet information
o notify users when relevant information is found
 Level 3 - learning or truly intelligent agents
o have a learning and deductive component of user
profiles to help a user who cannot formalise a query
or target for a search
Turban (2001)
Intelligent agents - applications (1)
 Intelligent agents
◦ can be programmed to make decisions based on user's
personal preferences e.g.
 delete junk e-mail
 schedule appointments
 travel over interconnected networks to find the cheapest
airfare
Intelligent agents - applications (2)
 An agent is like a ‘personal digital assistant’ collaborating

with the user in the same work environment
 can help the user by

o performing tasks on the user's behalf
o training or teaching the user
o hiding the complexity of difficult tasks
o helping the user collaborate with other users
o monitoring events and procedures
Game Theory
Game theory - introduction
 Also called ‘Multi-person Decision Theory’
 Analyses the decision-making process when there is

more than one decision-maker (player)
 Each player’s outcome (or payoff) depends on the

actions taken by the other players
Game theory - introduction
 Each player’s action depends on

o the actions available to each player
o each player's preferences about the outcomes
o each player's beliefs about which actions are available to each
player and how each player ranks the outcomes
o each player’s beliefs about other player's beliefs, etc.
 Cutting the (delicious chocolate) cake - ‘cutter’ and ‘chooser’

o if the cutter makes one slice bigger than the other
o the chooser will take the biggest slice!
o ...better to make slices as near equal as possible
Game Theory
 Prisoner’s Dilemma
◦ Art and Don are arrested for a crime
 if Art confesses and incriminates Don
 Art goes free, Don gets 5 years
 if Art does not confess, but Don incriminates Art
 Don goes free, Art gets 5 years
 if both Art and Don confess and incriminate each other
 they both get 4 years
 if both Art and Don do not confess
 they both get 2 years
◦ they are told the same thing but they cannot communicate…
◦ could they trust each other if they could communicate...?
◦ what does each decide to do?
Game Theory
◦ Mutual co-operation gives the best outcome for
Art and Don (together as a group)
 minimum total time spent in jail
◦ Any other outcome less good for the group

 might be better for one, but worse for the other
 might be worse for both
 total jail time overall would be greater
◦ Selfish action (betrayal) gives the worst outcome

for Art and Don (individually and together)
Game Theory
◦ if Art says nothing
 he’ll get 2 years if Don says nothing
 he’ll get 5 years if Don confesses
Don
◦ if Art talks, he might go free Ssh! Talk
 but if Don talks as well, they’ll both get
4 years Ssh! -2, -2 -5,
Art
0
◦ if Don says nothing
 he’ll get 2 years if Art says nothing Talk
 he’ll get 5 years if Art confesses 0, -5 -4, -
◦ if Don talks, he might go free 4
 but if Art talks as well, they’ll both get 4
Is it better to co-operate
years
or defect (betray)?
Game Theory
Don Don
Ssh! Talk Ssh! Talk
Ssh! win-win lose- Ssh! -4 -5
win
Art Art
Talk win-lose lose-lose Talk -5 -8
Payoff matrix in win-lose format Payoff matrix in penalty format

Game Theory
◦ T = temptation to defect (betray) (0, -5)
◦ R = reward for mutual co-operation (-2, -2)
◦ P = punishment for mutual defection (-4, -4)
◦ S = “sucker’s payoff” (-5, 0)
 then T > R > P > S

 if the choice is made more than once,
then T + S < 2 * R
Game Theory
 Prisoner’s Dilemma Variation:
exchange of closed bags
o bag 1 should contain goods
o bag 2 should contain payment Goods
Full Empty
Full win-win lose-win

Cash
win-lose lose-lose
 If both bags are full: win-win Empty
o What happens if one bag is empty?
o What happen if both bags are
empty?
Game Theory
 Prisoner’s Dilemma Variation:
exchange of closed bags, but
played every month
o bag 1 should contain goods Goods
o bag 2 should contain payment Full Empty
 If both bags are full: win-win Full win-win lose-win

o What happens if one bag is empty? Cash
o What happen if both bags are empty? win-lose lose-lose
Empty
 Introduces memory
o What happened last time?
o What will be your strategy this time?
Game Theory - examples
 Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) and Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma (IPD)

can be applied in many situations
◦ 2 salesmen selling to 2 client companies
◦ 2 military generals attacking/defending 2 locations
◦ 2 companies deciding whether to advertise competing products
◦ 2 political candidates seeking support from colleagues
(David Cameron and Nick Clegg as leaders of Con-Dem alliance)
 All examples of two-player non-zero-sum games

Game Theory: Strategies
 Strategies for playing IPD

◦ Always co-operate
 will be beaten but “nasty” strategies
◦ Always defect
 greedy strategies do not do well long-term
◦ Tit-for-tat
 start by co-operating, then copy opponent
◦ Spiteful
 co-operates until opponent defects, then always defects
◦ Mistrust
 start by defecting, then copy opponent
Game Theory: Strategies
 Successful strategies
o “nice”
o does not defect before opponent does
o “retaliate”
o punish defection - it does not pay to be too nice
o “forgive”
o will retaliate, but will then co-operate if opponent does
o avoids long-term revenge
o “non-envious”
o not trying to out-score opponent
 Could ideas from IPD show how altruism evolved?
o Sometimes it is “selfish” to appear to be “nice”!
o Nice guys finish first...
Game theory - applications
Game theory is
“uniquely qualified to make sense of the forces at work”
in relation to executive decision-making,

decision-making
i.e. “to the strategies of some actual corporations caught

up in conglomerate warfare”
McDonald (1970) from Davis (1997)

Game theory - applications
Game theory can be applied to

o airline competition
o coalition formation to apply political pressure
o plant location
o product diversification
o to derive optimal pricing, competitive bidding
strategies and making investment decisions
Augmented Reality (AR)
Augmented Reality
o allows computer-generated images to appear in the
world viewed through a camera/smartphone
o provides additional information on real-world images
o see examples:
o http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-
seven-augmented-reality-apps-40090355/
o http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/08/03/a-tour-of-
saps-augmented-reality-for-business-40089706/
o http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/emerging-tech/2010/10/07/future-
phones-go-on-display-in-japan-40090444/
Augmented Reality – providing “added value”
iPhone app for Paris subway by PresseLite

– overlays local information
From:
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-apps-4009
Acrossair – where is the nearest subway station in New York?

• show landmarks
• gives approximate distance
From:
Panoramascope – iPhone app providing information about local area

• names of mountains
From:
Wikitude world browser–information about local area

• places of interest
see: http://www.wikitude.org/category/02_wikitude/world-browser
Image from:
0355/
 can be used for computer games
 can be used for business applications
 helping sales staff visiting clients
• providing directions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps49T0iJwVg
• business card
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1zMiyJ34vc&f
 allowing to visualise stock levels of products
check prices of product in different stores
 3D maps
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFwzFby2eNo
 checking environmental conditions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxr8oaRUq6k
 training – undertake repairs under guidance
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9KPJlA5yds
References and suggested reading for this week
 Aleksander I & Morton H (1991), An Introduction to Neural

Computing, Chapman & Hall
 Davis, M, 1997, Game Theory: a non-technical introduction, Dover
 Laudon, K. & Laudon, J., 2004, Management Information Systems,
8th ed., Pearson Prentice Hall
‘Other intelligent techniques’: chapter 10, pages 333-339
 Turban E. & Aronson J.E., 2001, Decision Support Systems and
Intelligent Systems, 6th ed., Prentice Hall
Neural Computing (the basics): chapter 15, pages 605-621, 634-
636
Neural Computing Applications: chapter 16, pages 651-661
Genetic algorithms: chapter 16, pages 664-671
Fuzzy Logic: chapter 16, pages 672-676
 Look up ‘game theory’ and/or the ‘prisoner’s dilemma’ on the web
Websites with AR information, papers and examples
 http://studierstube.icg.tu-graz.ac.at/index.php
 http://0-delivery.acm.org.emu.londonmet.ac.uk/10.1145/1520000/1514382/04538819.pdf?
key1=1514382&key2=7267870921&coll=DL&dl=ACM&CFID=112784255&CFTOKEN=908
63056
 http://0-delivery.acm.org.emu.londonmet.ac.uk/10.1145/1510000/1508049/a5-dunser.pdf?
key1=1508049&key2=9137870921&coll=DL&dl=ACM&CFID=112784255&CFTOKEN=908
63056
 http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/mobile-apps/2010/09/30/a-look-at-seven-augmented-reality-
apps-40090355/
 http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/security/2010/10/28/augmented-reality-scheme-aims-to-fight-
terrorism-40090679/
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M-oAmBDcZk

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Other intelligent systems

Overview of concepts and technologies being

Concepts relating to Augmented Reality (AR)

 Artificial neural networks (ANN)

 Neural network is initially trained

 Neural network uses rules learned from patterns

 Hidden layer(s) processes inputs, classifying according

Input layer Hidden layer Output layer

Age Bad credit

Source: Laudon & Laudon, 2004

 Signals between nodes

 Weights adjusted iteratively

 ‘Learning’ can be supervised

◦ uses inputs for which desired outputs are known

◦ difference between desired and actual output used to correct weights

 only the inputs are known!

 the network is self-organising

 outputs derived by the network may not be

 Good at some tasks that people are good at

 Not good at tasks that people are not good at

Current applications of neural networks include:

 programmed to work the way populations solve problems:

 Example based on the board game ‘Mastermind’

 Imagine we are trying to guess a 6-digit binary number

 The number that has been set by our opponent is:

 Then we guess again and get another score…

 There are 64 possible combinations…

 How it could be done using genetic algorithms…?

 With GA approach, we present random guesses, say

 Discard the lowest scoring guesses, A, B, C and G

Success! We have found the number

 Set of instructions performed to solve a problem

 Methods used to reproduce (generate new offspring)

 splitting and mating is called crossover

 more rarely might also introduce mutation

Genetic algorithms have been applied to

e.g. cold, cool, warm, hot might have overlapping

room temperature is ‘cool’ is between 50ºF and 70ºF,

but 70ºF is on the cusp between warm and cool

- example taken from Laudon & Laudon (2004)

70o F degrees is the norm:

40o F degrees is too cold:

100o F degrees is too hot:

60o F degrees is cool:

80o F degrees is warm:

Is 90o F degrees warm or hot?

Is 55o F degrees cool or cold?

Is 75o F degrees warm or the norm?

 Fuzzy logic has been applied in Japan:

 Level 0 - e.g. web browsers

 Level 1 - search engines

 Level 2 - software agents

 An agent is like a ‘personal digital assistant’ collaborating

 can help the user by

 Also called ‘Multi-person Decision Theory’

 Analyses the decision-making process when there is

 Each player’s outcome (or payoff) depends on the