1B POPULATION

CHANGE
 FERTILITY: Crude
Birth Rate
• This is the number of births per 1000 of the
population per year.

•(2015 data)
• LOW Crude BR Japan = 7.9/1000, Italy
(8/1000), Monaco (8.1/1000).

• HIGH BR Niger = 49.21/1000, Angola

(45/1000), Chad (44.79/1000)
Fertility measure 1: CRUDE BIRTH RATE
• CBR is the total number of live births per thousand of the
population per year

• Strengths: Simple and widely used

• Weaknesses: Does not take account of the age or gender

composition of the population
2020 CBR data:
Fertility measure 1: CRUDE BIRTH RATE
• What are the reasons for the trends identified?
MEDCs LEDCs
Universal access to education and Low levels of income, therefore large
health care families are required to work the land
Material benefits of small families are Lower quality of health care provision
well understood and contraception is means IMR is higher and therefore
widely available women have more children to ensure
survival

Gender equality enables women to Contraception is not as widely available

pursue careers
The age of marriage has increased Gender inequality does not enable
women to pursue careers to the same
extent
FERTILITY: Total Fertility
Rate
• This is the average number of children a
woman will have during her reproductive
years.

• TFR of 2 children per woman is called a

Replacement Fertility Rate
• LOW TFR e.g Hong Kong (1.2), Singapore
(1.24), Portugal (1.23)

• HIGH TFR e.g. Niger (7.57), Somalia (6.36),

Mali (6.14). (2015 data)
TFR (2020 World Data sheet)
 Mortality is the ratio of deaths to the
population of a given area. Mortality is often
measured using indices such as the Crude
Death Rate (CDR), the Infant Mortality Rate
(IMR), and life expectancy.
 This is the number of deaths per
MORTAL 1000 of the population per year.

ITY
Crude LOW DR Oman 2/1000, UAE
1/1000, Iceland 6/1000
Death
Rate HIGH DR = Lesotho 14/1000, Mali
10/1000, Nigeria 12/1000 (2018
data)
Mortality measure 1: CRUDE DEATH RATE

• CDR is the total number of deaths per thousand of the population per year

• Strengths: Simple and widely used

• Weaknesses: Does not take account of the age of death as it relates to the total
population

• Pattern: Less clearly defined than that for CBR. Mortality levels do fall with increased
development so MEDCs generally have low levels of mortality. However, with ageing
populations in MEDCs mortality levels are actually higher than in some LEDCs
 • The IMR is a measure of
the number of deaths of
IMR infants before their first
birthday, per 1000 live
births in a year.
MORTALITY: Infant Mortality Rate
• This is the number of deaths per 1000 children in the first year of
their life.

• LOW IMR UK = 5, Canada (4, 2018), Japan (2, 2018)

• HIGH IMR = Afghanistan (48, 2018), Mali (62, 20180 Angola (52,
2018), Central African Republic (85, 2018)
Mortality measure 2: INFANT MORTALITY
RATE
• IMR is the number of deaths per thousand children in the first year of life.

• Strengths: Excellent indicator of development within a country

• Weaknesses: Excludes stillbirths

• Pattern: MEDCs have very low rates, averaging 5 per thousand in 2015.
LEDCs recorded values ranging from 42-64 per thousand
2020 IMR:
 Natural Change
• This is the difference between the crude birth rate and
crude death rate.

• If the crude birth rate is higher there will be Natural

Increase. (population growing). If the crude death rate is
higher there will be Natural Decrease.

• Other factors such as migration can also affect

population growth
What does
this picture
mean? p4
 If the CBR is higher than
the CDR there will be a
NATURAL population increase.
CHANGE
If the CDR is higher than
the CBR there will be a
population decrease.
 • Life Expectancy measures the average

Life number of years a person can expect to

live. High mortality in the early age groups
often lowers the average life expectancy.

expectancy
For Malawi the life expectancy is 46, for
Burundi 50, Sierra Leone 39, Peru 66,
Sweden 78 and the UK 76.
Demographic Transition
Model
 Demographic Transition Model Birth rate
Death rate
Total
population
Rate per 1000 inhabitants

High stationary Early expansion Late expansion Low stationary Decline

Time
 0:00- 5:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt3
48
 High Birth Rates

Social
Lack of Many children High IMR
are needed to pressures,
education for means
Lack of family work on the e.g. men with
girls - women have
planning or land/labourers more
marriage and who can earn more babies
contraception children are
babies is the money for the to ensure
more
only option family some survive
respected
.
UK deaths outnumber births for first
time in 40 years

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57600757
 Low Birth Rates

Lower infant mortality

An increased desire for Increased industrialisation
rate, meaning children are
material possessions and and mechanisation,
now surviving through to
a reduced interest in large meaning fewer labourers
adulthood and parents do
families are needed
not need to have as many.

.
More opportunities for
career driven women An increased use of family
finding less time to help planning
raise a family.
 High Death Rates

Large dependant Poor hygiene due to

Disease, famine, populations puts poor water supplies,
poor diet. strain on limited sewage and basic
resources. toilet facilities.

Poor medical care,

Limited access to
Conflict few doctors,
vaccinations.
hospitals or drugs.
 Low Death Rates
Improved health
Better access to
care. Better
clean drinking water. Improved sanitation
education meaning
Improving hygiene
more trained doctors

Improved food
Decreased infant Improved transport production and
mortality rate. for food. storage (both quality
and quantity).
Stage 1
In this stage both birth and death rates are high, typically
35-40 per thousand. IMR is high and LE is low.
Population totals do not vary greatly- low population
growth.
Occurred in the UK before 1750 when medical care was
limited. Today, due to advances in basic health care,
there are no countries reported at this stage.
 • Poor birth control or family planning
• Some countries religions oppose family planning techniques eg strongly
Muslim or Catholic societies.
• Many children die in infancy- parents tend to produce more in the hope
that several will survive eg In some countries of sub-Saharan Africa the
infant mortality rate is over 100/000 (10%) e.g. Burkina Faso. In this case it
is calculated that a woman would need to have 10 children in order to be
95% confident of a surviving adult son. Thus high infant mortality rates are
often connected to continuing high fertility rates.

Reasons • In LEDCs children are seen as an economic asset. They are seen as
producers rather than consumers. Children are seen as a source of cheap
(free) labour on the farm, in the home or in sweat shops where the wage
can help boost the family income. In old age the grown-up children can
help to care for the parent – thus children are an insurance policy.
• Children are regarded as a sign of virility, therefore giving social standing
• In parts of Africa polygamy is practised and a man’s status is indicated by
the number of children that he has sired. Thus one man may father many
children encouraging high fertility
 Reasons for high death rates:
High levels of disease and plague ( eg bubonic). Epidemics were frequent

Large dependant populations puts strain on limited resources. Famines are frequent, uncertain
food supplies and poor diet from a poor variety of foods to eat
Limited access to vaccinations

Conflict

Poor hygiene due to poor water supplies, sewage and basic toilet facilities. Waterborne diseases
eg cholera and typhoid rampant
Poor medical care, few doctors, hospitals and little knowledge regarding how diseases spread

In some LEDCs although treatments may be available in theory in practice they can’t be afforded
– e.g. HIV drugs available but expensive.
 Better sanitation and hygiene-
more clean water, toilets etc. This
Increased medical advances. meant waterborne diseases were
More doctors, nurses, eradicated eg typhoid and cholera
Increased vaccinations eg
medicines and hospitals. and the public were educated on
smallpox was eradicated by
Greater knowledge and how to stop the spread of
vaccinations diseases. UK Public Health Acts of
understanding of
1872 and 1875 improved
healthcare. sanitation and hygiene leading to
reduced mortality.

In Sri Lanka economic

Greater availability of food
and improved diets. This
resulted in less nutritional
deficiencies such as rickets
and anaemia
In MEDCs with ageing
populations death rates are
likely to rise as the mortality
rate has to be high amongst
the elderly.
growth between 1947
and 1952 led to greater
spending on health care
and so mortality
declined.
  
Reasons that birth rates stayed high:

If a country has a large % of young people its fertility rate is likely to stay high in the
medium term. This is because the young people will grow into fertile adults and have
their own children. eg Uganda or Zambia (Stage 2 DTM). In India population growth
produced a population where over 50% was aged under 15 – when this section of the
population reached child bearing age population growth continued rapidly (2000).

Impact of reduced death rates and lower IMR has not yet taken effect
Stage 3- • The fall in DR continues but gradually and

Late
it stabilises between 15-10 per thousand
as the population begins to age. BR begins
to fall to 20-25 per thousand but
population continues to increase because

expanding of the youthful population structure.

Today, more affluent LEDCs such as Brazil
and Argentina are in this stage.
Reasons for fall in birth rates:
• Greater access to contraception and more family planning- contraception more widely available and less
stigma
• Education especially of women is a key to lower fertility. With literacy comes a knowledge of birth control,
greater social awareness, more opportunity for employment and a wider choice of action generally
• In MEDCs children are perceived as a financial burden – as consumers rather than producers. The cost of
child dependency is a major factor in the decision to begin or extend a family. In the UK there are tuition
fees for Higher Education and student loans – the costs to the parents of the child could extend beyond 18
years and offspring often stay living at home into their 20s.
• Increased materialism- Parents want a more affluent lifestyle and luxuries
• Female emancipation- more women are gong to university and working in professional jobs. This means
many of them delay marriage and having children or not have children at all.
• In the UK as women entered the workforce large families became uneconomical. In industrial South Wales
women are over 50% of the workforce and families depend on their wages.
• In the UK compulsory education 1876 meant children were no longer an economic asset leading to
reduced fertility rates. Child labour was also abolished meaning children were no longer able to work.
Also, as more machinery is used in agriculture, less children are needed to work and provide for the family
 
Why are there fewer
teenager mothers in
Northern Ireland?
(Oct 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59
001641?at_custom4=EBAC47E6-3494-11EC-B415-C8
0D933C408C&at_medium=custom7&at_custom3=B
BC+News+NI&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=link
&at_campaign=64
BR during
lockdown
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
56415248
 The trend of declining fertility continues
at this stage to about 10 per thousand.

Stage 4- The DR remains stable. There are

occasional spikes in the BR e.g. post
second world world war baby boom but
Low the overall BR remains low and total
population stabilises. LE increases and the

Stationary most common causes of death are

associated with ageing such as dementia
or the so called ‘diseases of affluence’
such as heart attacks and strokes. Only
MEDCs eg Australia are well established in
this stage.
 It is felt that some European countries
have passed through stage 4 and are
now in a situation where the DR
exceeds the BR. Increased affluence

Stage 5- generally, and greater financial

independence for women have
resulted in significant lifestyle changes.
Decline Many women remain single, or at least
do not have children because of career
choices, whilst others delay the age
that they have a child. As the
population ages, there are fewer
potential parents and consequently
numbers decline overall. Italy and
Germany are thought to have reached
this stage.
Fertility rate:
Shrinking
population in six
easy lessons

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health
-53424290
How do you
convince people
to have babies?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-
57112631
Northern Ireland's number of
over 85s rose by 28% in decade

• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-
northern-ireland-58665969
UK DTM
 Evaluating the Demographic Transition
Model
The model is very useful when dealing with MEDCs but like all models, the DTM has its limitations. It failed to
consider or to predict several factors and events.

The model, being more or less Eurocentric, assumed that in time all countries would pass through the same four
stages. It now seems unlikely that many of the LEDCs, especially in Africa, will become industrialised.

The model assumed that the fall in death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the
death rate in many British cities rose due to unsanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it
only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many LEDCs has
been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries the fall in in birth rate in Stage 3
has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political oppression to birth control (Brazil),
whereas the fall was much more rapid and came earlier in China following the introduction of the One Child
Policy
• The timescale of the model, especially in several South-East Asian countries such
as Hong Kong and Malaysia is being squashed as they develop at a much faster
rate than did the early industrialised countries.
• The social changes, especially those regarding the role of women and the
distribution of wealth, that facilitated the decline in birth rates in MEDCs do not
exist to the same extent in LEDCs.
• Cultural attitudes that favours large families still need to be overcome and,
according to some UN observers, these may pose an insurmountable barrier to
birth rates falling to anything as low as MEDCs.
• In Europe, the declining death rate was accompanied with improving economic
conditions and this was a key reason for families deciding to have fewer children.
The economic situation in LEDCs is very different to that in MEDCs. A falling death
rate along with continued high birth rate resulted in a large increase in population
in many LEDCs.
Epidemiology is the study of disease and it has been
suggested that an epidemiological transition occurs as
countries proceed through development. This model
focuses on the both the causes and numbers of deaths.
However, as fertility rates are closely tied into patterns
of mortality, this model has some similarities to the
Demographic Transition Model.
• Mortality rates are high and fluctuating. This prevents sustained population
growth and low and variable life expectancy (20-40 years)
• Common causes of death include infectious diseases eg small pox, measles and
influenza. At times these diseases reached epidemic or even pandemic status (eg
flu pandemic in 1919).
• Many of these deaths were directly related to environmental conditions, diet,
hygiene and lifestyle- called exogenetic, ie they are not related to genetics.
• Countries in this stage generally have inadequate nutrition, sanitation and
hygiene. Medical facilities are inadequate and there are insufficient funds to
develop these further

Stage 1- The pre- transition stage

Pandemic – an epidemic of infectious
disease that has spread through human
populations across a large region; for
instance multiple continents, or even
worldwide.

Epidemic - a widespread occurrence of an

infectious disease in a community at a
particular time.
 Britain passed through this stage
before the mid-eighteenth century
Place
examples Eg the 2014 Ebola epidemic in west
Africa, which caused 11.5 thousand
stage 1 deaths over 18 months

ETM Currently only those LEDCs in the

lowest section of the development
continuum are found here.
 Stage 2 - The receding pandemic

Death rates fall rapidly

during this stage Average life expectancy
Rate of decline accelerating
(progressively declines) as increases steadily from
as epidemic peaks
infectious diseases are about 30 to 50 years
controlled

Significant developments in
nutrition and sanitation as
well as medicine and
vaccinations
Greater understanding of
how diseases are spread and
governments take control to
prevent the spread of
infectious diseases across
international boundaries
Population growth is
sustained and begins to be
exponential (population
explosion- stage 3 DTM)
 In Britain this occurred from
Place the nineteenth century
onwards
examples
ETM stage Modern day Malawi and the
2 efforts to stop the spread of
SARS (2003) and Swine Flu
(2009)
 Stage 3 - The age of degenerative and man-made diseases

Death rates fall and become stable

Life expectancy rises and exceeds 5o years with fertility becoming the
crucial factor in population growth

At this stage, people die from degenerative or endogenetic diseases of

the elderly eg Alzheimer's disease. They have no apparent external cause

Or the so-called 'diseases of affluence', eg heart attacks, strokes and

some cancers
 Mortality Rates in England & Wales

Tuberculosis Scarlet Fever

Smallpox Diphtheria

Source: McKeown 1976

Human-
Addictive industrial products

made
Technological side effects

Environmental causes

causes of Diet-related

death Consequences of modern life

(disease of Allergies, asthma, auto-immune diseases: the hygiene

hypothesis

wealth) Sexually transmitted infections

Place examples ETM stage 3

UK and most MEDCs at present

Top 5 causes of death
per country - UK 1 Coronary Heart Disease
•Life expectancy: 81.2 2 Stroke
•GDP pc: $41,200
3 Lung Cancers
4 Alzheimers/Dementia
5 Influenza and Pneumonia
Top 5 causes of death
per country - Ethiopia
1 Influenza and
•Life expectancy: 64.8 Pneumonia
•GDP pc: $1,700
2 Stroke
3 HIV/AIDS
4 Diarrhoeal diseases
5 Malnutrition
Top 5 causes of death per
country - Mozambique
1 HIV/AIDS
•Life expectancy: 57.6
•GDP pc: $1,300
2 Influenza and
Pneumonia
3 Stroke
4 Tuberculosis
5 Diarrhoeal diseases
Top 5 causes of death
per country - Germany
1 Coronary Heart
•Life expectancy: 81 Disease
•GDP pc: $47,400
2 Lung Cancers
3 Stroke
4 Breast Cancer
5 Prostate Cancer