Probability

Sample Space & Events

• Sample Space, S: The set of all possible

outcomes of that experiment.
• Example 1: Roll a die:
Outcome: Lading with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 face up
Sample Space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
number of outcome in a trial, n(S) = 6

• Events: subset of outcomes contained in the

sample space S. An event is simple if it consists
of exactly one outcome and compound if it
consists of more than one outcome.
Relation from set theory

--> the Union of two events A and B is the event consisting

of all outcomes that are either in A or B.
　　 Notation: A U B
--> the Intersection of two events A and B is the event
consisting of all outcomes that are in A and B.
　　 Notation: A ∩ B
--> the Complement of an event A is the set of all
outcomes in S that are not contained in A
　　 Notation: A’
--> Mutually Exclusive: when A and B have no outcomes in
common, they are mutually exclusive or disjoint events.
Notation: A∩B=0
Example 2

Rolling a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {1, 3, 5}

A U B = {1. 2. 3. 5}
A ∩ B = {1, 3}
　　 A’ = {4, 5, 6}
Venn Diagram:
Probability

• The PROBABILITY of an event is the ratio of the

number of times an event occurs to the number of
trials.

n( A)
P ( A) 
n( S )

Axiom 1 : 0  P(A)  1, for any event A

Axiom 2 : P(S)  1
Example 3

When you toss a coin, what is the probability that it

lands heads up?
Properties of Probability

A B
P ( A  B)  P( A)  P( B )  P( A  B)

A Complementary Probability
P ( A' )  1  P ( A)

A B Mutually Exclusive P( A  B)  0
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P( B )
P( A  B)
Conditional Probability: P( A B) 
P( B)

Independent Events: P( A  B )  P( A)  P( B)
Practice Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q6
Q7
Q8
Q9
Q10
Q11
Question 1:

The number 1, 2, ...., 9 are written on separate

cards. The cards are shuffled and the top one
is turned over. Calculate the probability that
the number on this car is prime.
Question 2

A circular wheel is divided into three equal sector,

numbered 1, 2, and 3. The wheel is spun twice. Each
time, the score is the number to which the black arrow
points. Calculate the probabilities of the following
events:
a) Both scores are the same as each other.
b) Neither score is a 2.
c) At least one of the scores is a 3
d) Neither score is a 2 and both scores are the same
e) Neither score is a 2 or both scores are the same

Sample Space  {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (2,1), (2,2, ), (2,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3)}
a) Both scores are the same as each other.
b) Neither score is a 2.
c) At least one of the scores is a 3
d) Neither score is a 2 and both scores are the same
e) Neither score is a 2 or both scores are the same

Sample Space  {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (2,1), (2,2, ), (2,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3)}
Question 3

James has three playing cards, two queens

and a king. Lily selects one of the cards at
random, and returns it to James. Lily then
selects a second card. Lily wins if both cards
selected are kings. Find the probability that
Lily wins.
Question 4:

You draw two cards from an ordinary card deck.

Find the probability that they are not both kings.
Question 5

(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Two fair dice are thrown.
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
A prize is won if the total
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
is 4 or if each individual
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
score is over 4. Find the (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
probability that a prize is (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
won.
Question 6

(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Two fair dice are thrown.
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
A prize is won if the total
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
is 10 or if each individual
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
score is over 4. Find the (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
probability that a prize is (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
won.
 Conditional Probability of A given B:

E.g. A class of 30 pupils, of whom 17 are girls and 13 are boys.

5 of the girls and 6 of the boys are left-handed, and all of the
remaining pupils are right-handed. If a pupil is selected at
random from the whole class, find the chance that this girl is
left-handed.

Let L = pupil chosen that is left-handed

P(L) = 11/30
P(L∩G) = 5/30
P(G)=17/30
P(L|G)=P(L∩G) / P(G) = 5/17
Question 7

A competition between two boats, A and B, consists of a series of

independent races and the competition will be won by the first
boat that wins three races. Each race will be won by either A or B,
and their probabilities of winning are influenced by the weather.
In bad weather, the probability that A wins is 0.9 while in fine
weather, the probability of that A wins is 0.4. For each race the
weather is either fine or bad and the probability of bad weather is
0.2.
a)Show that the probability of A winning the first race is 0.5.
b)Given that the first race is won by A, find the conditional
probability that
i) the weather during the first race is bad
ii) A will win the competition*
 a) Show that the probability of A winning the first
race is 0.5.
Let B = bad weather; F = fine weather; A = A wins the race; A' = B wins
the race. Given P(A|B)=0.9; P(A|F)=0.4; P(B)=0.2
b)Given that the first race is won by A, find the
conditional probability that
i) the weather during the first race is bad
Let A = A won the first race; B= bad weather; P(A)=0.5
Given that the first race is won by A, find the
conditional probability that A will win the competition*
Let A = A won ; P(A)=0.5
 Independent Events: The events that have no effect
upon one another
E.g In a game, a contestant has to first spin
a fair coin and then roll a fair cubical dice
whose faces are numbered 1 to 6. The
contestant wins a prize if the coin shows
heads and the dice score is below 3. Find
P( A  B) the probability that a contestant wins a
P( A B) 
P( B) prize.

P( A)  P( B) Let H = coin shows heads, T= coin shows

 tails, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 = dice score shows 1 to
P( B) 6 respectively
 P ( A) P(prize won)
=P(head and below 3)
(T,1) (T,2) (T,3) (T,4) (T,5) (T,6)
=P(head) x P(below 3)
(H,1) (H,2) (H,3) (H,4) (H,5) (H,6) =1/2 x 2/6
=1/6
Question 8

Two ordinary dice are thrown. Find the probability that

a) at least one 6 is shown
b) at least one 3 is shown
c) at least one 6 or at least one 3 is thrown
Question 9

Two men fire at a target. The probability that Alan hits the
target is 1/2 and the probability that Bob does not hit the
target is 1/3. Alan fires at the target first, then Bob fires at the
target. Find the probability that
a) Both Alan and Bob hit the target
b) only one hits the target
c) neither hits the target