PROBABILITY

Year 10 Science
Arranged by :
Mr. Togu Mangihut B
 Definitions
Probability is a measure of how likely it is that an event will happen.

A random experiment is a mechanism that produces a definite outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty.

An outcome is the result of a trial of an experiment.

The sample space associated with a random experiment is the set of all possible

outcomes.

An event is a subset of the sample space.

Probabilities must always be in the range from 0 to 1.

If the probability of an event happening is 0, the event cannot occur.

If the probability of an event happening is 1, the event is certain to occur.

e.g.

1. P(throwing a six-sided die and scoring a 7) = 0

2. P(throwing a six-sided die and scoring less than 7) = 1

Probability of the event not occurring = 1 – the probability of the even occurring
Counting Methods to find Sample
Spaces
The most difficult thing for calculating a probability can be finding the size of the sample space,
especially if there are two or more trials. There are several counting methods that can help.

 Making a table.
  tree diagram.

Total out comes : 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

Total out comes : 6 x 6 = 36

 n ship ?
a ti o
a r el
y ou se e
Do

Total out comes : 2 x 6 = 12

 The Fundamental Counting Principle

 
If one event has p possible outcomes, and another event has m possible outcomes, then there are a
total of p • m possible outcomes for the two events.
 
Examples

1. Rolling two six-sided dice: Each die has 6 equally likely outcomes, so the sample space is 6 • 6 or
36 equally likely outcomes.

2.  Flipping three coins: Each coin has 2 equally likely outcomes, so the sample space is 2 • 2 • 2 or 8
equally likely outcomes.

3. Rolling a six-sided die and flipping a coin: The sample space is 6 • 2 or 12 equally likely outcomes.
Probability
Probabilities are expressed as fractions, decimal fractions or percentages.

For equally likely outcomes, the theoretical probability of the event E occurring is given by:

For experiments, the experimental probability of an event E happening is given by:

For experiments, the more trials that are carried out, the nearer the experimental
probability will be to the theoretical probability given above.
Sets are represented as a collection of well-defined objects or elements .

Given set A and B , we can define the following operations :

Venn Diagram P Q
1 15
Venn Diagram are also a good way of representing
information when carrying out probability calculations 2 4
3
P = {2,4,6,8,10,12} ; 6 8 16
P = { multiple of 2 less than 14} 12
10 13
P = { x I x is the multiples of 2, x < 14} 5
7 9 11
Q = {4,8,12, 16}
ξ = U = {1 ,2,3,4,... , 16}

P ∪ Q = {2, 4 ,6,8,10,12,16} n (P ) = 6
P ∩ Q = { 4,8,12} ‘the number of element in set P’
P – Q = {2,6,10} n (Q – P ) = 1
Q – P = {16}
Relative frequency

The relative frequency of an event is defined as the number of times that the event occurs
during experimental trials, divided by the total number of trials conducted.

The relative frequency is not a theoretical quantity, but an experimental one. We have to
repeat an experiment a number of times and count how many times the outcome of the trial
is in the event set. Because it is experimental, it is possible to get a different relative
frequency every time that we repeat an experiment.
P (A ∪ B) = n (A ∪ B) / n (S)

A ∪ B = { 3, 5 , 6 , 9 ,10 , 12 , 15}

n(AUB) = 7

P (A ∪ B) = n (A ∪ B) / n (S) = 7/15
60
S

S 3
D 18
3 2
18 14
2 4
5
4
5 12
2
12
2 B

B
 Probability
‘Combined events’
Combined events look at the probability of two or more
events
Listing or counting all the possible outcomes for two or
more combined events enables you to calculate the
probability of any particular event occurring. This can be
done by listing outcomes systematically, or using sample
space diagrams to record all the outcomes in a table.
Tables

Total outcomes = 4 ( 2 x 2)
Total outcomes = 36 ( 6 x 6 )
 Probability

Total outcomes = ( 2 x 2 x 2) = 8
 1st Dice 2nd Dice
Outcomes
(1,1) , (1,2), (1,3),(1,4), (1,5), 1,6)

P (1,1) = 1/36 ( 1/6 x 1/6)

Outcomes
(2,1) , … , (2,6)

Outcomes
(3,1) , … , (3,6)

Outcomes
(4,1) , … , (4,6)

Outcomes
(5,1) , … , (5,6)

Outcomes
(4,1) , … , (6,6)

Total outcomes = 36
 Conditional Probability

■ Conditional probability is the probability of one event occurring with some relationship to

one or more other events. 
■ The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the event will occur given the
knowledge that an event A has already occurred.
■ This probability is written P(B|A), notation for the probability of B given A.