FTA’s

 A systematic approach to the identification

of the combinations of possible occurrences
that could combine to produce an
undesirable effect
 Methodology:
◦ Define the boundaries of the study
◦ Select the top event
◦ Construct the tree
 Define sub-events and basic (end) events
 Use logic gates (AND / OR)
◦ Quantify the tree
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

TOP EVENT

AND

TOP EVENT
SUB- SUB-
EVENT EVENT OR
A B

SUB- SUB-
EVENT EVENT
A B
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Fire in a multi-
storey car park Top Event

Oxygen Ignition
Fuel 1st level or
source
sub-events

2nd level
or basic
Surface Rubbish Petrol Electrical Arson Smoking
coating fault
events
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

AND OR
When calculating the probability When calculating the probability
of this top event we multiply (x) of this top event we add (+) the
the probabilities of events A and B probabilities of events A and B

TOP EVENT TOP EVENT

SUB- SUB- SUB- SUB-

EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENT
A B A B
Syndicate Exercise
Construct a fault
tree for an
accident
occurring
between the
vehicle on the
roundabout in
collision with a
vehicle entering
the roundabout
Now Determine the Probability of the Accident

Crash on
Top event roundabout
0.0244 or
2.4% chance of a collision
1st level

Vehicle approaching
2nd level Vehicle on roundabout does not stop
roundabout
0.2 0.122

Vehicle could not stop Driver did not stop

3rd level
0.061
0.061

Basic
Poor
events Brake tyres Poor
Driver
fainted
4th level failure Too fast visibility Suicide

0.001 0.01
0.01 0.05
0.05 0.001
 An operator is required to monitor a steam boiler.
Under fault conditions, the operator is at risk of injury
from explosion due either(a) the boiler burner being
lit when operating with low water conditions or (b)
overpressure.
 

The expected frequencies of the failures that would

lead to either of these effects are given below:
Failure type Frequency (per year) Effect
Flame detector 0.1 (a)
Electrical fault 0.05 (a) or (b)
Pressure switch failure 0.05 (b)
Relief valve failure 0.05 (b)
(i) Given that the operator is at risk for 20 per cent of
the time that the boiler is operating, construct and
quantify a simple fault tree to show the expected
frequency of the top event (injury to the operator).
(8)
(ii) State, with reasons, whether or not the level of risk
shown should be tolerated. (2)
Now Determine the Probability of the Accident
f = 1/Probability (P), therefore P= 1/f.
Operator
Top event Injured
0.0044 or once every
227 yrs
1st level

2nd level Explosion

Operator

0.2 0.022

Lit with low water Overpressure

3rd level
0.15
0.15

Basic
events Flame
Electrical
Electrical
Relief
Fault Valve
4th level Detector Fault Pressure

0.05
0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05