Geological Aspects of Earthquakes and Sesimic Risk Analysis-Computer Program

Seismotectonics and Seismic
Hazard Analysis
Iftikhar Ahmad
Assistant Professor
College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,
Punjab University, Lahore
Prof. Dr. Zulfiqar Ahmad

Chairman
Department Of Earth Sciences
Qaid-i-Azam University , Islamabad
1
Objectives
Part I
 Describe Seismic Hazards
 Define Geological Aspects of Earthquakes.
 Where are the rupture zones ?
 Can we predict next ?
 Identify Danger Areas.
2
Objectives
Part II
 Parameters of Seismic Hazard Analysis
 Computer Application
 Seismic risk Analysis.
 Estimation of Maximum credible
Earthquake and Peak Ground Acceleration .
3
Seismic Hazards
1. Ground Shaking
 When an earth quake (EQ) occurs, seismic wave radiate away from the source
and travel rapidly through the earth curst. When these waves reach the ground
surface they produce shaking that may last from seconds to minutes.
 The strength and duration of ground shaking depends on the size of the earth
quake. Ground shaking can be considered to be the most important of all seismic
hazards because all other hazards are caused by ground shaking.
2. Structural Hazards
 The most dramatic earth quake images of earth quake damage is structural
collapse.
 Over the years considerable advances have been made in earth quake resistant
design of structures and seismic design requirements in building codes.
3. Liquefaction
 Earth quake damage occurs when soil deposits lost their strength and appears to
flow as fluid therefore it is unstable to support structure like buildings..
 Because it only occurs in saturated soil, liquefaction is most commonly observed
near rivers, bays or other bodies of water.
4
Seismic Hazards
4. Landslides
 Strong earth quake can cause landslides. In certain cases EQ
induced landslides have buried entire towns or villages.
5. Retaining Structure Failure

 Near ports and harbors etc retaining structures were damaged
due to EQ.
6. Lifeline Hazards
 Networks like power gas pipelines telecommunications were
damaged due to EQs.
7. Tsunami Hazards
5
What Controls the Level of
Shaking?
 Magnitude
– More energy released
 Distance
– Shaking decays with
distance
 Local soils
– amplify the shaking
6
Earthquake Effects - Ground
Shaking
Northridge, CA 1994
7
Earthquake
Effects -
Ground Shaking
Northridge, CA 1994
8
Shaking
Loma Prieta, CA 1989

KGO-TV News ABC-7
9
Shaking
Kobe, Japan 1995
10
Shaking
Kobe, Japan 1995

11
Earthquake Effects - Surface
Faulting
Landers, CA 1992
12
Earthquake Effects - Liquefaction
Source: National Geophysical Data Center
Niigata, Japan 1964

13
Earthquake Effects - Landslides
Source: National Geophysical Data Center
Turnagain Heights, Alaska,1964 (upper left inset);

Santa Cruz Mtns, California , 1989
14
Earthquake Effects - Fires
Loma Prieta, CA 1989
KGO-TV News ABC-7

15
Earthquake Effects - Tsunamis
1957 Aleutian Tsunami
Photograph Credit: Henry Helbush. Source: National Geophysical Data Center

16
Geological Aspects of Earthquakes
 Recorded data shows Earthquakes occur in the same general
patterns year after year, principally in three large zones of the
earth.
 They are caused by Sudden Slip on faults or movement/grinding
of tectonic plates (e.g. 4cm/year in Indian Plate)
17
Geological Aspects of Earthquakes
 Look at the
pattern in Indian
Ocean.
18
Where are these rupture lines?
 Earthquakes and active faults in northern Pakistan are the direct result of the
Indian subcontinent moving northward at a rate of about 40 mm/yr (1.6
inches/yr) and colliding with the Eurasian continent.
 This collision is causing uplift that produces the highest mountain peaks in
the world including the Himalayan, the Karakoram, the Pamir and the
Hindu Kush ranges.
 As the Indian plate moves northward, it is being subducted or pushed
beneath the Eurasian plate. Much of the compressional motion between
these two colliding plates has been and continues to be accommodated by
slip on a suite of major thrust faults that are at the Earth's surface in the
foothills of the mountains and dip northward beneath the ranges.
 These include
– the Main Frontal thrust,
– the Main Central thrust,
– the Main boundary thrust,
– and the Main Mantle thrust.
19
Where are these rupture lines?
20
Faults in Our Local Area
21
Major Earthquake Epicenter
22
Earthquake History
23
Can We Predict Next ?
 Systematic study of the distribution of the epicenters of major
earthquakes and of their aftershock zones along the MBT boundary
shows that the zones of activity migrate to NW and on MMT from
north to south Sakardu to Astore.
 Between the zones of recent activity there are quiet regions. The map
shows a characteristic example : the quiet zones (seismic gaps) have
not had an earthquake for 50 years or more.
 Recent studies show that major destructive earthquakes do not recur in
the same place along faults until several decades or more have
elapsed--the time needed for sufficient stress to build up.
 In the main seismic regions, the present quiet zones present the greatest
danger of future earthquakes.
 One of these may be Arabian sea near Karachi where 3 tectonic plates
meet with each other
 This work may cause significant anxiety among residents in quiet areas.
 Therefore, we recommend that this information is of preliminary
nature.
24
Looking into Gaps
SEISMICITY OF PAKISTAN
Earthquake History
Largest Earthquake
Seismic Hazard
Significant Earthquakes
CAPITAL - Islamabad
POPULATION (Pakmitti.com)
130,580,000 (1998 Census)
MAJOR URBAN CENTRES

Karachi pop. 9,269,265
Lahore pop. 5,129,214
Faisalabad pop. 2,280,360
Hyderabad pop. 1,447,957
Rawalpindi pop. 1,406,214
Islamabad pop. 799,000
25
Give me Few Minutes Before
Earthquake . . .
 Short term predictions were based on observation of the water level in deep
wells, the presence of radioactive gas (radon) in the water, foreshocks and the
unusual behavior of animals.
 This method is based on identifying patterns of small earthquakes as

precursors to large ones
 The method is notable because of its apparent success in predicting the

magnitude 8.1 earthquake in Hokkaido, Japan, in September 2003.
 For Example: Haicheng earthquake in China (1975), the people were

evacuated 5 1/2 hours before the heaviest shocks (magnitude 7.3), thus
avoiding considerable loss of life (90 percent of the houses were destroyed).
 Similarly, in the province of Yunan (May 1976) two earthquakes of magnitude

7.6 and 7.5 were predicted, which made it possible to give the alarm eight
minutes before the first shock.
26
Are we Helping Earthquakes to Trigger ?
 Yes
 In some cases human activities, such as the filling of certain lake reservoirs,
the injection of water into deep wells, the exploitation of oil and gas deposits
or under ground nuclear tests are followed by seismic activity.
 In France, for example, several earthquakes have occurred since 1969 at the
Lacq oil and gas field.
 The injection of waste fluid into a well sunk to a depth of 3,700 meters
(12,000 feet) near Denver, Colorado in the United States led scientists to study
this phenomenon in the laboratory and on the ground.
 It shows, the injection of fluid into a faulted zone reduces the friction and thus
diminishes the stresses in the fault.
 In simple terms, the injection of fluid weakens a fault, whereas pumping out
strengthens it.
 Where there is a substantial stress in a fault, the injection of fluid will
"release" the fault, thus causing an earthquake.
 Reservoir impounding in High Aswan dam Nile river Egypt caused EQ
27
Identifying Danger Areas
Oct 8 Earthquake
28
Source: SRTM
Acquired: 11/10/2005
Tarbela Dam
29
Source: SRTM
Tarbela Dam
30
Source: SRTM
31
Source: Lansat Res 15m
32
Source: Ikonos 1:7500
33
Identifying Danger Areas Source: Ikonos 1:7500
34
Identifying Danger Areas Source: Spot 1:250000
Interpretation of new and reactivated landslides around Acquired: 11/10/2005
Muzaffarabad with the roads and trails mapped within the affected areas.
35
Identifying Danger Areas Source: Spot 1:250000
Interpretation of new and reactivated landslides around Acquired: 11/10/2005
Balakot with the roads and trails mapped within the affected areas.
36
Source: Ikonos res. 1 m.
37
Identifying Danger Areas Source:SPOT res.2. 5 m.
Bagh
38
Bagh Population Density
39
Bagh Population Density
40
Identifying Danger Areas Source: Ikonos res. 1 m.
Punch
41
Seismic Waves
42
Earthquake Magnitude
M5
M6
M7
43
Earthquake Location
44
The San Andreas
Fault
45
Pacific-North American Plate
Boundary
46
Faults
of Southern
California
Source: SCEC Data Center47

Shaking Hazard in Southern California
48
Real-time Earthquake Information
Recent Earthquakes - Last 8-30 Days
Current Time: Tue, 5 Feb 2008 20:23:04 UTC
49
Earthquake Details
5.1
Magnitude
Date-Time Monday, February 04, 2008 at 20:12:13 UTC

Tuesday, February 05, 2008 at 12:42:13 AM at epicenter


Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.485°N, 70.178°E
Depth 206.7 km (128.4 miles)
Region HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
Distances 75 km (50 miles) SSW of Feyzabad, Afghanistan
165 km (100 miles) SSE of Kulob (Kulyab), Tajikistan
170 km (105 miles) SW of Khorugh, Tajikistan
235 km (145 miles) NNE of KABUL, Afghanistan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 7.5 km (4.7 miles); depth +/- 5.4 km (3.4 miles)
Parameters Nst= 38, Nph= 38, Dmin=239 km, Rmss=0.78 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2008naba
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

50
Recent Earthquakes - Last 8-30 Days
Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Comments

DATE-(UTC)-TIME
yyyy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss degrees degrees km

2008/01/29 22:45:06 5.94S 148.40E 53 4.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
2008/01/29 21:37:02 12.80N 88.79W 48 4.8 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR
2008/01/29 20:02:28 49.75N 83.50E 30 5.1 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN
2008/01/29 19:47:31 32.24N 141.41E 4 4.5 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2008/01/29 15:16:55 37.63N 23.39E 42 4.3 SOUTHERN GREECE
2008/01/29 14:57:26 58.70S 25.20W 35 5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
51
ShakeMaps
52
Community
Internet
Intensity
Maps
53
Buildings are obviously what kill
people, not the earthquakes
themselves.
 When the waves strike, the earth begins to move backward
and forward along the same line.
 The lower part of a building on the earth's surface
immediately moves with the earth.
 The upper portion, however, initially remains at rest; thus
the building is stretched out of shape and creating a
vibration known as resonance.
 The resonance can cause structural failure in itself.
 The walls of buildings without adequate lateral bracing
frequently fall outward, leaving the upper floors or roof to
collapse into the inside of the structure
 For examples Margala Tower Islamabad Oct 8, 2005.
54
Seismicity
55
Seismicity
Earthquakes depicted on the seismicity maps are taken from the USGS/NEIC PDE catalog. 56
Seismicity
57
58
Historical Seismicity
Magnitude 7.6 PAKISTAN
Saturday, October 08, 2005 at 03:50:40 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
59
Seismicity
60
Seismicity
61
Magnitude 7.6 PAKISTAN
Saturday, October 08, 2005 at 03:50:40 UTC
Preliminary Earthquake Report
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
62
Seismicity
63
Buildings are obviously what kill
people, not the earthquakes
themselves.
 When the waves strike, the earth begins to
move backward and forward along the same
line.
 The lower part of a building on the earth's
surface immediately moves with the earth.
 The upper portion, however, initially remains at
rest; thus the building is stretched out of shape
and creating a vibration known as resonance.
 The resonance can cause structural failure in
itself.
 The walls of buildings without adequate lateral
bracing frequently fall outward, leaving the
upper floors or roof to collapse into the inside
of the structure
 For examples Margala Tower Islamabad Oct 8,
2005.
64
Elements that Influence Damage
 Proximity to the fault. Generally there is greater danger
closer to the fault than farther away.
 Geologic foundation. Structures built on solid rock fare

better than those built on softer ground or shallow water
table.
 Building design. To resist damage in an earthquake, a

building must be adequately braced. It must have structural
continuity with secure anchoring and bonding of all
elements, and it must be well balanced and tied together.
65
Seismic Risk Analysis
Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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Computer Program
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EQ Risk Analysis Computer Program
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Data for Seismic Hazard Analysis
 Data Used 1850-2005
 Data Sources “International Seismological Centre (ISC) England,
National Earthquake Information Services (NEIS) of US Geological
Survey, Geophysical Centre, Quetta and earthquake listing compiled by
Quittmeyer and Jacob (1979).
 The main seismogenic features which can affect the seismic hazard for
Islamabad are:
 · Main Boundary Thrust (M.B.T.) in ENE-WSW trend
 · Margala Fault in ENE-WSW trend
 · Hazara Thrust
 · Panjal Thrust
 · Jhelum Fault in N-S trend
 · Manshera Thrust
 · Murree Thrust
102
Estimated Peak Ground Accelaration in
Selected Part of Islamabad
Acceleration has this important influence on damage, because, as an object in movement,
the building obeys Newton' famous Second Law of Dynamics
F = MA
This states the Force acting on the building is equal to the Mass of the building times the
Acceleration.
Computer Programs Seism and Eqrisk have been used for the Seismic hazard analysis
PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION SOIL PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION ROCK
1000 1000
900 900
800 800
700 700
PGA (Gals)
PGA (Gals)
600 600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
10 100 1000 10000 100000
10 100 1000 10000 100000
Return Period (Years)
103
Estimated Peak Ground Velocity in
Selected part of Islamabad
PEAK GROUND VELOCITY SOIL

PEAK GROUND VELOCITY ROCK
200
180 140
160 120
PGV (cm/sec)
140
100
120
PGA (Gals)
100 80
80
60
60
40 40
20 20
0
10 100 1000 10000 100000
0
10 100 1000 10000 100000
104
Return Period of Earthquakes
Recurrence Relationship
1000
100
10
Events per year
0.1
0.01
0.001
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Magnitude (M)
105
Response Spectra
Spectral acceleration is approximately what is experienced by a building, as modeled by a particle on a
massless vertical rod having the same natural period of vibration as the building.
The building's natural period is the inverse of the frequency: Whereas the frequency is the number of times per
second that the building will vibrate back and forth, the period is the time it takes for the building to make one
complete vibration.
RESPONSE SPECTRA OF ROCK

RESPONSE SPECTRA OF SOIL
1600
1800
1400
Peak Ground Acceleration (PSA) (Gals)

1600
PSA1 200 y PSA1 200 y
Peak Ground Acceleration (PSA) (Gals)
1200 1400
PSA2 500 y
PSA2 500 y
PSA3 1000 y 1200
1000 PSA3 1000 y
PSA4 2000 y
1000 PSA4 2000 y
800
800
600 600
400
400
200
200
0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Fundamental Period of Structure (Seconds)
Fundamental Period of Structure (Seconds)
106
MCE (Maximum Credible Earthquake)
107
Maximum Credible Pseudo
Accelation and Veolocity
Fo5 soil sites
Maximum Credible Pseudo Accelation Maximum Credible Pseudo Relative Velocity
Response Spectrum - Soil Site Response Spectrum - Soil Site
3 400
350
2.5
PSA(Low)
300
PSA(High)
PRSV (cm/sec)
2
250
PSA (g)
1.5 200
150
1
100 PSA(Low)
0.5 50 PSA(High)
0
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Period (Sec) Period (Sec)
108
Maximum Credible Pseudo
Acceleration and Velocity
For soil sites
Maximum Credible Pseudo Accelation
Maximum Credible Pseudo Relative Velocity
Response Spectrum - Rock Site
Response Spectrum - Soil Site
2.5
400
PSA(Low)
2 350
PSA(High)
300
1.5
PRSV (cm/sec)
PSA (g)
250
1 200
150
0.5 100 PSA(Low)
50 PSA(High)
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0
Period (Sec) 0 1 2 3 4 5
Period (Sec)
109
Recommended Seismic Design Parameters
TGround motions that will characterize the MDE and OBE were estimated on the basis of the data
and maps of the area. Based on results shown in the graphs of previous slides, the following
design parameters are recommended.
The following parameters are recommended
Peak Ground Acceleration
For Soil and Rock sites: 258 Gals ( 0.26 g )
Peak Ground Velocity
For soil site: 31.70 cm/sec
For rock: site: 21.69 cm/sec
Response Spectra Acceleration (200 year return period)
Soil site: Max PSA = 755 Gals occurred at period = 0.2 sec
Rock Site: Max PSA = 777 Gals occurred at period = 0.15 sec
Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE)
The low and high values of Peak ground acceleration (MBT case) are 0.46g and 1.02g
respectively
Similarly, the low and high values of Peak ground velocity (MBT case) are 64 and 348 cm/sec
respectively for rock site and for soil site, it is 94 and 515 cm/sec respectively. For maximum
credible pseudo relative acceleration and velocity response spectrum refer to above graphs.
Maximum Design Earthquake (MDE).
Peak Bedrock Acceleration: 0.26g
These earthquakes may be used as a basis for selecting appropriate time histories for use in the
design
110
Conclusions
The studies of literature shows that active or likely to be active faults
are located close to the area on regional scale.
Peak Ground Acceleration may be adopted 0.26 g
Other parameters may be taken from grtaphs
Special designs are available design of large buildings
The recommended values are based on the data and its analysis.
Because of the complexity of geology and tectonic in the area, errors
upto 10-15% may be possible.
111
THANKS
Acknowledgements
-United States Geological Survey

-The Staff of the MCEER Information Service
- Landsat, Spot,
- Meteorological Department, Islamabad
- Water and Power Development Authority, Lahore
- Geophysical Center, Quetta
- Indian Seismology Information Centre
112

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Seismotectonics and Seismic

Prof. Dr. Zulfiqar Ahmad

5. Retaining Structure Failure

Loma Prieta, CA 1989

Kobe, Japan 1995

Kobe, Japan 1995

Source: National Geophysical Data Center

Niigata, Japan 1964

Source: National Geophysical Data Center

Turnagain Heights, Alaska,1964 (upper left inset);

Loma Prieta, CA 1989

KGO-TV News ABC-7

Photograph Credit: Henry Helbush. Source: National Geophysical Data Center

MAJOR URBAN CENTRES

 This method is based on identifying patterns of small earthquakes as

 The method is notable because of its apparent success in predicting the

 For Example: Haicheng earthquake in China (1975), the people were

 Similarly, in the province of Yunan (May 1976) two earthquakes of magnitude

Source: SCEC Data Center47

Tuesday, February 05, 2008 at 12:42:13 AM at epicenter

Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Comments

yyyy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss degrees degrees km

2008/01/29 21:37:02 12.80N 88.79W 48 4.8 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

2008/01/29 20:02:28 49.75N 83.50E 30 5.1 EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN

2008/01/29 19:47:31 32.24N 141.41E 4 4.5 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

2008/01/29 15:16:55 37.63N 23.39E 42 4.3 SOUTHERN GREECE

2008/01/29 14:57:26 58.70S 25.20W 35 5.6 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

 Geologic foundation. Structures built on solid rock fare

 Building design. To resist damage in an earthquake, a

PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION SOIL PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION ROCK

PEAK GROUND VELOCITY SOIL

RESPONSE SPECTRA OF ROCK

Peak Ground Acceleration (PSA) (Gals)

-United States Geological Survey

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