Assimilation of

Scatterometer
Winds
Ad.Stoffelen@KNMI.nl
Manager NWP SAF at KNMI
Manager OSI SAF at KNMI
PI European OSCAT Cal/Val project
Leader KNMI Satellite Winds Group
www.knmi.nl/scatterometer
 2. Level 2 Wind Processing
INPUT OUTPUT
Ambiguity Wind
Observations Inversion
Removal Field
 om  f ( ,  , , p  )

Quality Quality
Control Monitor
 Geophysical Model Function
A geophysical model function (GMF) relates ocean surface
wind speed and direction to the backscatter cross section
measurements.

model
 o  f ( ,  ,  , p  )
: wind speed
ø: wind direction w.r.t. beam view
: incidence angle
p: polarization
λ: microwave wavelength
 Inversion
• Bayesian approach:
P(σ os σ om )  P(σ om σ os )  P(σ os )

P (z s z m )  P(z m z s )  P(z s ), z  σ 
o 0.625

– Find closest point on 3D or

4D manifold

• The statistical error in finding this point is small and

equivalent to a vector error of 0.5 m/s in wind

• p(zM |zS )  exp{ - ½(zM - zS)2/noise(z) }

• p(zS ) = constant; p(oS ) ≠ constant
Stoffelen and Portabella, 2006
 Ambiguity removal
1 N
z 
mi  z si
2

MLE 
N

i 1  
kp z si

P( v | z om )   P( v v s )  P(z os z om )dv s
vs

 Scatterometer inversion produces

a set of wind (direction) solutions
or ambiguities
P( v v s )  P( v s v)  P( v)

 Ambiguity removal is performed

with spatial filters
 Azimuthal diversity
 Accounting for local
minima, erratic winds
are produced
 0  MSS accounts for lack
of azimuthal diversity
– A relative weight
 180 (probability) is derived
for every solution
– Suitable with a
variational filter
MLE

Local minima
MSS

Solution bands
Wind direction ()
 Meteorological balance (2D-VAR)
P( v v s )  P( v s v)  P( v)
Cost function: J (x)  (y o  H [x])T R 1 (y o  H [x])  (x  x b )T B 1 (x  x b )

Spatial filter:
 Mass conservation
 Continuity equation
 0U = 0
 Vertical motion < horizontal
motion
 Parameters:
 Background error (variance)
 Correlation length
 Rotation vs divergence
Local minima MSS

NWP model
Local minima MSS
NOAA MSS @
25 km 50 km
Plots !

Improved cold
front

Better
Around
rain
 Remarks
• Scatterometer wind retrieval skill depends on
viewing geometry

• Measurement error characterization is essential,

notably for QC and AR

• Effective QC is very important for DA

– Rain screening is especially relevant for Ku-band

• Variational AR accounts for full wind PDF

 Data assimilation
• The analysis minimizes the cost
function J by varying the control
variables representing the J  JO  J B
atmospheric state, e.g., uj , the wind
components of wind vector vj,
• At every observation point prior  (u  u ) 2
 j B , j 
knowledge is available on the JB    
observed state from a sort-range   2 
forecast, called NWP background j  1 , 2  B 
• JB is a penalty term penalizing
differences of, e.g., uj with
  
p v | v B  exp  J B / 2 
the NWP background (subscript B)
• B denotes the expected background wind component error
• JB differences should be spatially balanced according to our
knowledge of the NWP model errros
• So, JB determines the spatial consistency of the analysis
(i.e., a low pass filter) Lorenc, Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 1988 12
 p([u,v]SCAT |vB)

Wind
error
model p([V,]SCAT |vB)

• Error distributions: p(vSCAT |vB) = p(vSCAT |vTrue) p(vTrue |vB)

• Combined NWP background and scatterometer error distribution
looks like a normal distribution in wind components with rather
constant width as a function of wind speed
• In speed it is a skew distribution
• In direction the width of the distribution depends on speed and
the distribution is periodic
 Wind component error model clearly simplest
13
Stoffelen, Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 1998
 Measurement
5%
Noise

•  noise is uniform in

measurement space
(~5 % or 0.5 m/s VRMS)

 Wind retrieval provides very

accurate S given O , so
well-defined p(vS |O) 14
 Observation error
• The analysis control variables
follow the NWP model spectrum
(model balance)
• Measured scales not
represented by the NWP model
state are attributed as
observation representation error
• The scatterometer wind vector
representation error is about 1.5
m/s
• In triple collocation
scatterometer wind errors on
NWP scale are estimated at
about 1 m/s vector RMS

15
Vogelzang et al., 2011 NWP SAF Workshop | 14 April 2011
 v input
Scatterometer Representation
v error
p(vS |v)

Prob

NWP
Scatterometer
Observation
[a.u.]
16
• Rotating beam (SeaWinds, OSCAT: mid swath)

true

• Fixed antennas (ASCAT: inner swath)

Broad MLE minima and closeby multiple ambiguous

17
solutions are complicating scatterometer wind assimilation
Scatterometer Data Assimilation
Posteriori Wind Probability given a set of measurements

Wind domain uncertainty

u, v ~ 1.5 m/s
Measurement space noise
D ~ 5% (0.2 m/s)
 0S = GMF(vS, .. ) Geophysical solution manifold

• ERS/ASCAT: Manifold in 3D measurement space

• SeaWinds/NSCAT: Manifold in 4D measurement space

Stoffelen&Portabella, 2006
 Scatterometer data
assimilation
• JO is a penalty term penalizing
differences of the analysis
control variables with the
observations
• Choices:
• Direct assimilation of  0O p(vS | 0O)

Complex error PDFs

• Assimilate p(vS | 0O), like
in MSS and 2DVAR
• Needs p information
• Assimilate ambiguities
Reduces wind solution
space to max 4 points
• Assimilate selected
solution
Reduces wind solution Stoffelen & Anderson, Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 1997 19
 Direct assimilation of  0O
•  noise is narrow y: 0
leading to accurate x: wind
wind retrieval
• Observation and
background wind
noise are relatively
large leading to
complex and skew
error PDFs in
measurement space
• Not compatible
with BLUE, higher
order statistics
needed

 Wind assimilation
appears simplest  Main uncertainty is in the wind domain
Stoffelen, PhD thesis,1998 20
 Assimilate ambiguities
v
Prob Prob

Jo
SCAT

 2 ln p  | v0
O 
p(vS |v) Ambiguities
Reduces wind solution space to max 4 points
(delta functions); solution wind PDF information is lost 21
Assimilate ambiguities
Scatterometer wind cost

ambiguous wind vectorsolutions ui ,vi

provided by wind retrieval procedure
and complemented by estimated
observation wind error, u = v
Stoffelen and Anderson, 1998

 Derive probability
Pi from MLE info

22
 Assimilate solution “valley”
v
Prob Prob

p(vS |v) MSS

Jo
SCAT

 2 ln p  | v 0
O 
٧ Retains essential wind solution PDF information along the
valley of solutions that generally exists
٧ Provides very good approximation to p(v | 0O)
Portabella and Stoffelen, 2004 23
Scatterometer input Representation
v error
٧ Provides very
good
approximation
X to p(v | 0O)

Prob NWP
Scatterometer
Observation
from MSS
[a.u.]

Portabella and Stoffelen, 2004 24

 Assimilation of ambiguous
winds
• Potentially provides vtrue = (0,3.5) ms-1 v2 = -v1
multiple minima in u/v,O = 2 ms-1
u/v,B = 2 ms-1
p2 = p1 = .5

3D/4D-Var
• Problem is very limited
for ASCAT
• 2DVAR tests show
<1% of wrong selection
• May be linearized by
selecting one solution <vA> = (0,3.25) ms-1
at a time (inner loop) Monte Carlo simulation, Stoffelen & Anderson, 1997

25
Assimilation of unambiguous winds
• AR by 2DVAR well tested and independent of B
• Broad B structure functions provide best AR skill

• Assimilation of scatterometer windProb

product is straightforward
• Few spatially correlated outliers due to AR errors, but mainly in dynamic weather

[a.u.]

Scatterometer wind NWP background Analysis

26
 Example
• Improved 5-day forecasts of
tropical cyclone in ECMWF
4D-VAR

No ERS Scatterometer With ERS

Rita

Isaksen & Stoffelen, 2000

27
 Another example
Japan Meteorological Agency

• ASCAT has smaller rain effect 28

Assimilation ASCAT winds ECMWF from 12/6/’07

Gebruik van scatterometers

Beneficial for U10 analysis
Operational okt/nov 2007 (added to QuikScat&ERS)
Hans Hersbach & Saleh Abdalla, ECMWF

ECMWF analysis vs ENVISAT altimeter wind

29
Underpredicted surge Delfzijl

31/10/’6 18Z 1/11/’06 4Z 30

 NWP Impact @ 100 km
29 10 2002

Storm near

HIRLAM
misses wave;
SeaWinds
should be
beneficial!

31
 NWP models
miss wave;
Next day
forecast bust

ERS-2 scatterometer wave train; missed by HiRLAM

32
Missed wave
train in
QuikScat

33
 Conclusions
• ASCAT on board MetOp provides accurate daily global
ocean surface winds at high spatial resolution
• NWP models lack such high resolution
• MetOp-B due for launch in 2012 probably providing a
tandem ASCAT
Further information:
www.nwpsaf.org scat@knmi.nl
www.osi-saf.org
www.knmi.nl/scatterometer

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35
Geographical statistics for
QuikSCAT, July 2009
Geographical statistics for ASCAT, July 2009

Rain flag removes stronger winds

for QuikSCAT
There are some regional differences
Lack of cross-isobar flow in NWP
QuikSCAT vs model wind dir
Stratify w.r.t. Northerly,
Southerly wind direction.
(Dec 2000 – Feb 2001)

•Large effect warm advection

•Small effect cold advection

•Similar results for NCEP

Hans Hersbach, ECMWF (2005)

WISE 2004, Reading