STATISTICS in HYDROLOGY

.. Estimation of stream FLOW & LEVEL with an assigned frequency in planning, design & operations of water related projects

Why important?
The design flood level is starting point for hydraulic calculations; it directly affects the flow rate at the bridge opening which, in turn, determines the amount of scour at the abutments and piers

EXAMPLE: In Bangladesh, major short to medium roads & bridges are designed in consideration of the maximum water level for 1-in-50 year frequency distribution

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

The Quality of Statistical Analysis is fully depends on the Quality of Data used

Firstly we need
Historical data series of flow & level for successive years Desired return period should not be more than 4 times of the length of data series

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS Frequency Analysis of Hydrologic Data requires .

Data should be homogeneous & independent i.e., all the observations are from the same population
Example: -a stream gauging station has not been moved -a watershed has not become urbanized -no structure has been placed on the stream or its major tributaries

STATISTICS in HYDROLOGY What are the methods? Rational method Empirical method Unit-hydrograph technique Frequency analysis

In Bangladesh, FREQUENCY ANALYSIS is a recognized method to estimate extreme high or low discharge and water level

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Analytical Tool used in IWM:

HYMOS
developed by Delft Hydraulics, the Netherlands

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS
Prior to the systematic frequency analysis of hydrological data (water level/discharge/rainfall data) tests are needed to establish the validity and consistency of data

visual checking of hydrographs correlation of hydrographs with neighbouring stations double mass analysis

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS
Probability distributions that widely use in Bangladesh for normal hydraulic practices: -General Extreme Value type I (EV I or Gumble Distribution) -General Extreme Value type II (EV II) -General Extreme Value type III (EV III) -3 Parameter Log Normal -Pearson III -Log-Pearson III

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS
Select Methods of parameter estimation:
Method of moments Method of maximum likelihood Method of modified maximum likelihood

Modified Maximum Likelihood is the most accurate

Select Confidence Limit:

95% Confidence Interval is treated as Standard Confidence Interval

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS
Probability Plot
a plot of a magnitude versus a probability Commonly used plotting functions are:

Gringorton P=(m-0.44)/(N+0.12) (suitable for Gumble distribution) Weibull P=m/(N+1) (suitable for EV III distribution) Chegadayev P=(m-0.3)/(N+0.4) (suitable for all distributions)

a=0.44

a=0

a=0.3

Blom P=(m-0.375)/(N+0.25) a=0.375 (suitable for Normal distribution)

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS
Select the most suitable distribution on the basis of: Visual inspection of probability plots Goodness of fit tests
-Chi square test

-Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

with HYMOS