Interactive CH 36 Six Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 9e

N.
GREGORY MANKIW NINTH EDITION
PRINCIPLES OF
ECONOMICS
CHAPTER
Six Debates over
36 Macroeconomic Policy
Interactive PowerPoint Slides by:
V. Andreea Chiritescu
Eastern Illinois University
© 2021 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a
license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 1
IN THIS CHAPTER
What are the arguments on both sides of each of the
following debates?
1. Should policymakers try to stabilize the economy?
2. Should fiscal policy fight recessions with spending
hikes or tax cuts?
3. Should monetary policy be made by rule or
discretion?
4. Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?
5. Should the government balance its budget?
6. Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage
saving?
license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
2
1. Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers – 1
• Arguments for active stabilization:
– Left on their own, economies tend to
fluctuate
• Pessimism of households and firms causes a
fall in AD, which causes a recession
– Policymakers can “lean against the wind”
• Use monetary & fiscal policy to stabilize
AD, output, and employment
– A more stable economy benefits everyone
© 2021 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a 3
1. Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers – 2
• Arguments against active stabilization:
– Monetary & fiscal policy work with long
lags, so policy must act in advance of
economic changes.
– But the shocks that cause fluctuations are
unpredictable, and forecasting is highly
imprecise.
– If policy takes effect too late, it will worsen
fluctuations.
– So, leave economy to its own devices.
Active Learning 1: Active stabilization policy
Would you be more likely to support active
stabilization policy if wages, prices, and
expectations adjust quickly in response to
economic changes, or if they adjust slowly?
• If wages, prices, and expectations adjust slowly,
it will take longer for the economy to return to its
natural rates of output and employment.
• In that case, there’s a better chance that
expansionary policy will act in time to alleviate
the recession, rather than push the economy
into an inflationary boom.
5
2. Spending Hikes or Tax Cuts? – 1
• Arguments for fighting recessions with
spending:
– Each $ of government spending adds
directly to aggregate demand
• But only part of each $ of a tax cut does
because consumers save part of it.
– Most states must keep balanced budgets,
• Federal spending given to states can prevent
states from laying off public workers, saving
jobs.
2. Spending Hikes or Tax Cuts? – 2
Arguments for fighting recessions with tax cuts:
– Tax cuts increase households’ disposable income
and therefore increase consumption spending.
– Tax cuts can increase aggregate demand with
incentives—like the investment tax credit.
– Tax cuts can increase aggregate supply by
increasing the incentive to work and produce
goods and services
– Rapid spending increases may be wasteful
(“bridges to nowhere”) and will require future tax
increases.
3. Monetary Policy: Rule or Discretion? – 1
• The Federal Reserve
– Has almost complete discretion over
monetary policy
• Some argue that the Fed should be
forced to follow a rule, such as
– Constant money growth rate
– Inflation targeting:
• Increase money growth rate if inflation is
below target; decrease money growth rate if
inflation is above target
• Arguments against discretion:
– Allowing central bankers discretion could
do great harm if they are incompetent.
– Discretion allows the possibility of abuse.
• Using monetary policy to affect election
outcomes, causing fluctuations called “the
political business cycle.”
– Central bankers who promise price stability may
renege if a recession occurs.
• Time-inconsistency: the discrepancy
between actual policy and announced policy
• Arguments for discretion:
– Discretion allows flexibility to react to
unforeseen events.
– Political business cycles and time-
inconsistency are theoretical possibilities
but not that important in practice.
– It is difficult to specify rules precisely and
to determine what the best rule would be.
4. Aim for Zero Inflation? – 1
• Prices rise when the government prints too
much money.
• Society faces a short-run tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment.
• How much inflation should the central
bank accept? Is zero the right target?
• Arguments for a zero inflation target:
– The costs of inflation (shoeleather, menu,
etc.) can be substantial even for low
inflation.
– Achieving zero inflation would have
temporary costs (higher unemployment)
but permanent benefits.
• And these costs could be reduced if the
commitment to zero inflation is credible
(reduces the expected inflation rate).
• Arguments against a zero inflation target:
– The benefits of moving from moderate to zero
inflation are small, but the costs are large:
• Estimates: must sacrifice 5% of a year’s
GDP for each 1% reduction in inflation
• A disinflation would leave permanent scars:
– Investment falls, lowering the future capital
stock
– Workers’ skills diminish while unemployed
– Some of inflation’s costs could be reduced
through more widespread indexation.
Active Learning 2: The zero-inflation debate
Suppose a structural change reduces the
demand for university administrators, lowering
their equilibrium real wage by 3%.
A. If the actual real wage paid to university
administrators remains constant, what
would be the consequences?
B. Would it be easier to achieve the 3% real
wage reduction if the inflation rate is 0% or
if it is 4%? Why?
14
Active Learning 2: Answers, A
A. If the actual real wage paid to university
administrators remains constant, what would be
the consequences?
– Whenever the actual real wage exceeds the
equilibrium real wage, there is a surplus of
labor, which represents wasted resources.
– A fall in the wage would alleviate the surplus:
• It would encourage some administrators to
switch to university teaching or private sector
employment
• It would increase the quantity of
administrators demanded
15
Active Learning 2: Answers, B
B. Would it be easier to achieve the 3% real wage
reduction if the inflation rate is 0% or if it is 4%?
Why?
– To restore labor market equilibrium under 0%
inflation, administrators would have to accept
a 3% nominal wage cut.
– Under 4% inflation, they would have to accept
a 1% nominal wage increase.
– The second scenario is more likely, as many
people suffer from “money illusion” and focus
on nominal variables rather than real ones.
16
5. Balanced Government Budget? – 1
• Arguments for balancing the budget:
– Government debt places a burden on
future generations.
– Budget deficits crowd out investment,
reducing growth and future living
standards.
– While deficits may be justified during
recessions or wars, the surging peacetime
debt of recent decades is unsustainable
and detrimental.
5. Balanced Government Budget? – 2
• Arguments against balancing the budget:
– Burden of the government’s debt is exaggerated;
it’s only a tiny % of a person’s lifetime income.
– Cutting the deficit could do more harm than good:
• Cutting education would reduce human capital
accumulation and future living standards
• Raising taxes reduces incentives to work and
save
– Divert attention from other programs that
redistribute income across generations
– Debt/income ratio more relevant than debt itself.
6. Tax Reform to Encourage Saving? – 1
• Arguments for tax reform to encourage
saving:
– One of the Ten Principles: A nation’s
standard of living depends on its ability to
produce goods and services.
– Higher saving provides more funds for
capital accumulation, which increases
productivity and living standards.
• Arguments for tax reform to encourage
saving:
– Another principle: People respond to incentives
– Current U.S. tax system discourages saving:
• High marginal tax rates reduce return on saving
• Some saving is taxed twice (as corporate
income and again as personal income)
– High tax rates on bequests (up to 40%!!!)
– Better: replace income tax with a consumption tax
to increase the incentive to save.
Active Learning 3: Consumption tax
Suppose the income tax were replaced with a
consumption tax, and the tax rate was chosen
carefully to ensure the average person’s tax
burden remains unchanged.
• Who would benefit?
• Who would be worse off?
21
Active Learning 3: Answers
• People with higher incomes save a bigger
percentage of their incomes, so would
benefit most from this change.
• People with low incomes use most or all of
their incomes for consumption and would be
worse off.
This is why most consumption tax proposals
include exemptions for necessities, like groceries,
which comprise a larger share of the budgets of
low-income persons.
22
• Arguments against tax reform to encourage saving:
– Such tax reform would mainly benefit the wealthy,
who need tax relief the least.
– Estimates of the interest-rate elasticity of saving
are low, so tax incentives may not increase saving
much.
– Reducing taxes on capital income may increase
the government's budget deficit, negating the
benefits of higher private saving.
– Better: increase national saving directly by
reducing the budget deficit.
ASK THE EXPERTS
Taxing Capital and Labor
“One drawback of taxing capital income at a
lower rate than labor income is that it gives
people incentives to relabel income that
policymakers find hard to categorize as ‘capital’
rather than ‘labor’.”
Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel, October 9, 2012.
24
ASK THE EXPERTS
“Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a
permanently lower rate than labor income would result
in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an
alternative that generated the same amount of tax
revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income
at equal rates instead.”
25
ASK THE EXPERTS
“Although they do not always agree about the precise
likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why
economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is
because they hold differing views about choices between
raising average prosperity and redistributing income.”
26
Conclusion
• Economics teaches us “there’s no such thing
as a free lunch.”
– There are few easy answers and many
unresolved questions.
• Crafting the best policy
– Requires knowing the pros and cons of every
alternative.
• Being an informed voter
– Requires the ability to evaluate the candidates’
policy proposals.
THINK-PAIR-SHARE
Those opposed to government budget deficits
argue, among other things, that budget deficits
redistribute wealth across generations by allowing
the current generation to enjoy the benefits of
government spending while future generations must
pay for it.
A. Under which of the following cases would you
argue that there is a greater intergenerational
transfer of wealth? Why?
1) The government increases spending on social
programs by buying apples and oranges for
the poor but refuses to raise taxes and instead
increases the budget deficit.
28
THINK-PAIR-SHARE
2) The government increases spending on
bridges, roads, and buildings but refuses to
raise taxes and instead increases the budget
deficit.
B. Does the preceding example provide a method by
which we might judge when a government budget
deficit is fair to each generation and when it is
not? Explain.
C. Why might this method be difficult to enforce in
practice?
29
CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy:
economy is inherently unstable; policy can manage
AD to offset the inherent instability.
• Critics: policy affects the economy with a lag;
our ability to forecast future economic conditions
is poor. Stabilization attempts: destabilizing.
• Advocates of increased government spending to
fight recessions: direct government spending
provides a greater boost to increase AD.
• Critics: tax cuts can expand AD and AS;
wasteful public projects.
30
• Advocates of rules for monetary policy:
discretionary monetary policy can suffer from
incompetence, abuse of power, time inconsistency.
• Critics: more flexible in responding to changing
economic circumstances.
• Advocates of a balanced government budget:
budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on
future generations.
• Critics: the deficit is only one small piece of
fiscal policy.
31
• Advocates of a zero-inflation target: inflation has
many costs and few benefits; the cost of
eliminating inflation is only temporary; the cost can
be reduced if the central bank announces a
credible plan to reduce inflation.
• Critics: moderate inflation imposes only small
costs on society (but the recession necessary to
reduce inflation to zero is quite costly);
moderate inflation may be helpful to an
economy.
32
• Advocates of tax incentives for saving: our society
discourages saving in many ways (heavily taxing
capital income; reducing benefits for those who
have accumulated wealth); switch from an income
tax to a consumption tax.
• Critics: many proposed changes to stimulate
saving would primarily benefit the wealthy, who
do not need a tax break; such changes might
have only a small effect on private saving.
Raising public saving by reducing the
government’s budget deficit: a more direct and
equitable way to increase national saving.
33

Interactive CH 36 Six Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 9e

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Interactive CH 36 Six Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 9e

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

N.

GREGORY MANKIW NINTH EDITION

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel, October 9, 2012.

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel, October 9, 2012.

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel, October 9, 2012.

You might also like