Failure modes

Ri(t) is the reliability function for the i-th failure mode, then assuming independence among
the failure modes, the system reliability R(t) is

Ri(t) = i-th failure mode does not occur before time t, and
R(t) = none of the n failure modes occurs before time t.
System hazard rate or failure rate λ(t),
Let λi(t) = failure rate function for the i-th failure mode.

When
Example: A system is made of three components. The failure
rate (number of failures per operating hours) function of
these components are
, . Give the system reliability function.
Failure modes with CFR Model

If a system consists of n independent, serially related components each having a constant

failure rate , then

In other words, the system itself will have an exponential time CFR model. If the components
are also all identical, i.e., λi = λ1, for i = 2, 3, … … …, n, then λ = nλ1 and MTTF = 1/(nλ1)
Example: An aircraft engine consists of
three modules having constant failure
rates of λ1 = 0.002, λ2 = 0.015 and
λ3 = 0.0025 failures per operating hour.
Give the reliability function for the
engine and its MTTF.
The MTTF = 1/0.0195 = 51.28 operating hours.
Failures on Demand

Components operate on cyclical basis may fail on demand. For example, an air
conditioning and heating system whose cycle time includes an operating time and
an idle time may fail when switching from an idle to an operating mode.

λI = the average failure rate while idle

λo = the average failure rate while operating

p = probability of failure on demand

tI = average length of idle time period per cycle

to = average length of the operating time period per cycle

Failure rate(failures per clock unit of time),

Example: An air conditioning compressor operates once for
an operating time of 20 min. each hour. While operating, it
has experienced a failure rate of 0.01 failures per operating
hour and while idle has experienced a dormant failure rate of
0.0002 failure per idle hour. The probability that the
compressor fails on demand is 0.03. What is the probability
that the compressor will not fail over a 24-hr period?
The probability that the compressor will not fail over a 24-hrs
period is
Two parameter exponential distribution

If a failure will never occur prior to some specified time t0, then t0 is a minimum
or threshold, time. It is also known as the guaranteed lifetime. The parameter t0
is a location parameter that shifts the distribution an amount equal to t0 to the
right on the time axis. This is equivalent to rewriting the density function by
replacing t with t-t0 with domain of random variable now t ≥ t0. For the
exponential distribution, the PDF becomes,

Reliability,
Failure rate,
Mean of the distribution

Median of the distribution tmed,

The designed life for a specified reliability value R

Variance and S. D. of two parameter exponential distribution are not affected by location
parameter.
Therefore variance, ; and S.D, and mode = t0
Example: A component experiences 0.001 failures per
hour. It has a guaranteed life of 200 hours. Find the
reliability at 300 hours of operation. Calculate MTTF
and σ. What is the median life of the component? And
calculate the designed life if a 0.95 reliability is desired.
Poisson Process
If a component having a constant failure rate λ is immediately
repaired and replaced upon failing, the number of failures
observed over a time period t has a Poisson distribution. The
probability of observing n failures in time t is given by the
Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF), pn(t).

Expected number of failures over time t is λt and the variance

is λt.
Probability of zero failures occurring in time t is

The Poisson process is often used in inventory analysis to determine the

number of spare components when the time between failures is exponential.
For example, if S spare components are available to support a continuous
operation over time period t, then

is the cumulative probability of S or fewer failures occurring during time t.

Therefore, RS(t), is the component reliability if there are S spares available for
immediate replacement when a failure occurs.
Example: A specially designed welding machine has a
nonrepairable motor with a constant failure rate of 0.05
failures per year. The company has purchased two spare
motors. If the designed life of the welding machine is 10
years, what is the probability that two spares will be
adequate?
Expected number of failures over the life of the machine is λt = 0.05 × 10 = 0.5
Redundancy and the CFR Model

Consider the case of two independent and redundant components each

having the same constant failure rate λ. In this case a system failure will
occur when both the components have failed. Since , is the probability
that both components will fail by time t, the system reliability R(t) is
given by

And the pdf is given by,

The hazard rate in this case,

The system MTTF can be determined from,
Weibull distribution

For mathematical convenience it is better to express λ(t) in the following

manner:
=2, hazard rate function is linear and Weibull distribution takes the form of Rayleigh
distribution

For t = θ, 63.2% of all Weibull failures will occur by time t

θ = scale parameter, influence both the mean and spread or dispersion of the distribution.

θ → increases, reliability at a given point in time increases. The slope of the hazard rate
Example: A compressor experiences wear out with a linear hazard rate function
as given below:

What are the values of shape parameter (β) and scale parameter (θ)? Calculate
the designed life for a reliability of 0.99, MTTF and σ. Take Γ(1.5) = 0.88623
Behaviour of the failure process is reflected by the value of the shape
parameter β.
Value of Weibull shape parameter Properties of the failure process

0<β<1 Decreasing Failure Rate, DFR

β=1 Exponential Distribution, CFR
1<β<2 IFR, concave
β=2 LFR, Rayleigh Distribution
β>2 IFR, Convex
3≤β≤4 IFR, Approaches Normal Distribution,
Symmetrical
Example: Given a Weibull distribution with a shape
parameter 1/3 and scale parameter 16000 hours.
Completely characterize the failure process.
1.,
2.,
3.,
4.. Since the distribution is highly skewed, the median provides a
better average. The mode is zero since β < 1.
5., ⇒
6. The characteristic life is 16000 hours. Therefore 63% of the failure
will occur by this time.
7. If a 90% reliability is desired, the designed life is
8. B1 life is indicating a high percentage of early failure.
Burn-in Screening for Weibull
The component that depicts a high percentage of early failure would be a good
candidate for burn-in screening. Now using the conditional probability for a
Weibull model,

Example: The failure rate function λ(t) of a system component is Weibull with a
shape parameter 1/3 and scale parameter 16000 hours. Find the designed life
of the component for a reliability value of 0.9. What improvement in design life
will be if the manufacturer provides 10 hours burn-in warranty?
For a 90% reliability value, the designed life is
If the manufacturer provides a 10 hours burn-in warranty, then

For a 90 percent reliability, the designed life is,

This is a significant increase in the components designed life over the original 18.71 hours
achieved by burn-in test.
The three parameter Weibull
Whenever there is a minimum life t0 such that T > t0, the three parameter Weibull
may be appropriate. This distribution assumes that no failures will take place prior
time t0

The parameter t0 is called the location parameter. The variance of this distribution is
the same as that in the two-parameter model. However,

And the designed life td corresponding to a reliability of R is

Example: The three parameter Weibull distribution has β = 4, t0 = 100 hours and
θ = 780 hours. Compute its MTTF, median, standard deviation and reliability for
a 500 hours mission. Take and
hours
The Normal Distribution
It has been used successfully to model fatigue and wear out
phenomena. The PDF of the normal distribution provides the familiar
bell-shape curve
There is no closed form solution to this integral, and it must be evaluated
numerically. If we take then Z will be normally distributed with a mean of zero
and a variance of one. The PDF for Z is given by z
Example: Wear-out failures of an oil-drilling bit is normally
distributed with a mean of 120 drilling hours and standard
deviation of 14 drilling hours. Drilling occurs for 12 hours each
day. How many days should drilling continue before the
operation is stopped in order to replace the drill bit? A 95
percent reliability is desired.
Find t0.95 such that Pr.{T ≥ t0.95} = 0.95
Lognormal distribution
If the random variable T, the TTF, has a lognormal distribution, the logarithm of T has a
normal distribution. Here most of the failures occur at the beginning of the life cycle.

S = shape parameter, tmed = location parameter and the distribution is defined only for
positive value of t and therefore more appropriate than the normal as a failure distribution.
Alternative form,
Since the logarithm is a monotonically increasing function,
Example: Fatigue wear-out of a component has a lognormal
distribution with tmed = 5000 hrs., and s = 0.2. Calculate the
MTTF, σ, mode and reliability at 3000hrs.