Course Title: Probability and Statistics

Course Code: MATH-107

Program: BS CS, BS Mathematics
Semester: Spring 2022

Lecture 17
Topics: Hypergeometric, Negative Binomial and
geometric Distribution, Poisson Distribution
Muhammad Usman
Department of Computer Sciences
GIFT University, Pakistan
Hypergeometric Distribution:

Example:

Solution:
Mean and Variance

Example:

Solution:
Negative Binomial Distribution

Example:

Solution:
Geometric Distribution:

Example:

Solution:
 Poisson Probability Distribution
• A Poisson probability distribution has these characteristics
1.The random variable is the number of outcomes occurring during a given time interval or in a specified
region
2.The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the interval.
3.The intervals do not overlap and are independent.

•The given time interval may be of any length, such as a minute, a day, a week, a month, or even a year.
•The specified region could be a line segment, an area, a volume, or perhaps a piece of material
•Examples:
• The number of telephone calls received per hour by an office.
• The number of days school is closed due to snow during the winter.
• The number of games postponed due to rain during a baseball season.
• The number of field mice per acre.
• The number of bacteria in a given culture, or the number of typing errors per page.
 Poisson Probability Distribution
• How Is a Hyper geometric Probability Computed?

• Mean and variance:

 Poisson Probability Distribution
• Example 1:
• If the number of lost bags per flight follows a Poisson distribution with .
1.Find the probability of not losing any bags.
2.Find the probability of exactly one bag is lost.

• Solution:
• P[X=0]=??

• Note: X={??}
• X={1,2,3,……}
 Poisson Probability Distribution
• Example 2:
• During a laboratory experiment, the average number of radioactive particles passing through a counter in 1
millisecond is 4.
1.What is the probability that 6 particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?

2.What is the probability that atlest 2 particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?
 Poisson Probability Distribution
• Example 3:
• Coastal Insurance Company underwrites insurance for beachfront properties along the Virginia,
North and South Carolina, and Georgia coasts. It uses the estimate that the probability of a
named Category III hurricane (sustained winds of more than 110 miles per hour) or higher
striking a particular region of the coast (for example, St. Simons Island, Georgia) in any one
year is .05. If a homeowner takes a 30-year mortgage on a recently purchased property in St.
Simons,
1.what is the likelihood that the owner will experience one hurricane during the mortgage
period?

2.what is the likelihood that the owner will experience at least one hurricane during the
mortgage period?
 Poisson Probability Distribution

• Only is needed to construct Poisson distribution

• Example 4:
• Make a passion probability distribution for
• =0.7
= 2.0
•
 Muhammad Usman
Department of Computer Sciences
GIFT University, Pakistan