BONGA UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON ETHIOPIAN
ECONOMY
A SENIOR SEMINAR PAPER SUBMITTED TO
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
PREPARED BY; NAME ID NUMBER
1.ASNAKEW MEQUANINT .......1759
2.BELETE TILAHUN .................1282
3.BIALFEW TESHAGER ............2003
4.MELKAMU DESTA ...................1973
5.ZERIHUN MATIWOS ................1175
ADVISOR MR; MISGANAW E.(M.SC)
MARCH,2022 BONGA ,ETHIOPIA
 SEMINAR PAPER OUTLINE
This seminar paper contains;
1. Introduction
1.1.statement of problem
1.2.objective of study
2. Literature Review
2.1.emperical review
3. Conclusion
4. Recommendation
 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
Climate variability and change are among the
major environmental challenges of the 21th century.
Scientific evidence indicates that anthropogenic
factors are the major contributors to the prevailing
global climate change (Forster et al, 2007).
 Climate change and variability (CC & V) is rapidly
emerging as one of the most serious global
problems affecting many sectors in the world.
 Cont...
• The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) such as, carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide has substantially increased over time.
• Climate change is one of the all encompassing
global environmental changes.
• The risks associated with it call for a broad spectrum
of policy responses and strategies at the local,
regional, national and global level.
• Ethiopia’s climate is naturally both highly diverse and
highly variable.
 1.2. Statement of problem
• Climate change and variability have great impact on
less developed country , mainly which their economies
depende on agriculture .
• since,Agriculture is the backbone of Ethiopian Economy
,but it mainly depends on rainfed production system.
• Although, the basic causal relationship between global
climate change and human emissions of greenhouse
gases is pretty much a scientific consensus,
 Cont...
 Climate change still deals with the
uncertainty of various sources:
• scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions,
global and regional climate responses to
atmospheric greenhouse gases.
• Impacts of climate change on human
societies, prospects of agreements
• and implementation on climate policy, to name
a few.
 Cont..
• Yet, since climate change is caused by the
gradual accumulation of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
• the control of greenhouse gas emissions
needs to be started long before damages
become significant.
 1.3. Objectives
1.3.1 General objective
•The overall objective of this seminar paper is to
identify the impact of climate change and variability on
Ethiopian economy.
1.3.2 Specific objectives
•To see impact of climate variability on agriculture and
food securities. 
•To assess the international institutional policy
responses on adaptation to climate change
•To assess mechanisms to reduce the impact of
climate change and variability in Ethiopia.
 2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1.Emperical review
The CGE model uses the outputs from a
Ricardian model study by Deressa and Hassan
(2013) on the impact of climate change on
agriculture to calibrate a hypothetical general
equilibrium in 2050.
•The model allows analyzing the path of
transitional dynamics towards a new steady
state after an initial impact.
 Cont...
• . This means that the model is solved for an
individual year, capital stock is modified each
period.
• because of depreciation and investment, and
the new values for the capital stocks are
used in the solution for the subsequent year.
• The model is recursive dynamic, beginning
with the base year of 2009/10 and being
solved annually through 2050.
 Cont...
• SWAT is a physically-based semi-distributed and
continuous-time hydrological model, with the most
promising and computationally efficient capacity to
operate on large basins in reasonable time.
• The model was selected because of its simplicity,
availability,and widely acceptance( mekonnen H.
daba2020).
• The concept of modeling in hydrology involves the
relationships of water, climate, soil and land use.
 Cont...
• Nowadays, hydrological impacts of climate change
are the most attractive part of the research since it
quantifies and studies effects of the change in flow
regimes under different climate scenarios at regional
to local scales
• In the TFP-growth scenario, climate change also
leads to a loss of some 30 percent of income,
compared with the no-climate-change baseline.
 3. CONCLUSION
 Both climate variability and change have been
occurring in Ethiopia. As such, Ethiopia has been
experiencing the impacts of both climate variability
and change.
 Climate change has led to;
 recurrent droughts and famines,
 flooding, expansion of desertification,
 loss of wetlands,
 loss of biodiversity,
 decline in agricultural production and productivity,
shortage of water,
 Cont...
• And increased incidence of pests and diseases
such as; spread of cereal stemborers and malaria to
higher elevation areas.
 Climate change is likely to aggravate environmental
degradation, food insecurity, water scarcity, disease
epidemics and poverty in Ethiopia.
 Ethiopia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change mainly due to;
 Cont...
• geographical location,

• rapid human population growth,

• heavy dependence on agriculture and natural

resources for subsistence,
• widespread poverty and limited resources (human,
financial, technical, technological, institutional, and
nfrastructural).