Section 4.

4
Binomial and
Hypergeometric
Distributions
 Common
distributions

Binomial Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Each has a
specific, known
formula for it’s
PMF.
 Binomial Distribution

Bernoulli An experiment that consists of two

trial complementary outcomes:
A “success” and a “failure”.

𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 )=𝑝 𝑃 ( 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 )=1 −𝑝 =𝑞

Binomial Counts the number of successes when

random Bernoulli trials are repeated times.
variable
All identical and independent.
 A Binomially distributed random variable must satisfy the
following properties:
1 There are a fixed number of trials (n).

2 Each trial is a Bernoulli trial i.e. has two complementary outcomes.

3 The trials must be independent, i.e. the outcome of one trial must
not affect the outcome of another.

4 The trials must be identical, i.e. the probability of a success () must

remain constant/ the same for all trials.

5 The discrete r.v. X counts the number of successes out of the n trials.
 If these properties are satisfied, then we can say
follows a binomial distribution.

𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 (𝑛 ;𝑝 )

The number of trials 𝑃 ( 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 )

performed.
A value between
Always a 0 and 1
positive integer
Example 𝑛=20 𝑝= 0.14
From records it has been found that 14% of flights at South African airports
are delayed. You are interested in finding probabilities relating to how many
of the next 20 flights (randomly chosen from South African airports) will be
delayed.
Define a random variable that will allow you to find these probabilities and
construct it’s pmf.

The flight is delayed The flight is not delayed

Success Failure

𝑋=𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑔h𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 20 ; 0.14 )

 Example 𝑛=10
A die is thrown 10 times. You are interested in finding probabilities relating to
how many many times the number 6 appears.
Define a random variable that will allow you to find these probabilities and
construct it’s pmf.

A “6” appears A “6” does not appear

Success Failure
1 5
𝑃 ( 6 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 )= 𝑃 ( 1, 2 , 3 , 4 𝑜𝑟 5 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 ) =
6 6

𝑋=𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎6𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ; 1

6 )
If is found to 𝑿 𝑩𝒊𝒏 ( 𝒏 ; 𝒑 )
1 −𝑝=𝑞
follow a
Binomial
distribution
then…
P.M.F.

𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =¿

= 0, 1, 2, … , n
 Simplifies to:
Mean:
𝜇=𝐸 ( 𝑋 )=∑ 𝑥𝑝 ( 𝑥 ) 𝑬 ( 𝑿 )=𝒏𝒑
Binomial r.v.’s
are discrete so…
Simplifies to:
Variance:
𝟐
𝜎 =∑ 𝑥 𝑝 ( 𝑥 ) −𝜇
2 2 2
𝝈 =𝒏𝒑𝒒
Example A student answers 10 questions in a multiple-choice test. The
questions are set up so that they do not depend on one-another.
Each question has 5 possible answers, only one of which is correct.

What is the probability that the student guesses only 3 answers correctly?

𝑋=𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ; 0.2 )

𝑃 ( 𝑋 =3 )=¿ ( )( 0.2 )
10
3
3
( 0.8 ) 7
¿ 0.201
What is the probability that the student guesses 7 answers correctly?

𝑋=𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦

𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ;0.2 )
𝑃 ( 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑠7 )

¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =7 )

¿
( )
10
7
( 0.2 ) 7 ( 0.8 ) 3

¿ 0.0008
What is the probability that the student guesses fewer than 3 answers correctly?

𝑋=𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 ✔ ✔ ✔

𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ;0.2 )
0 1 2 3 4 … 10

𝑃 ( 𝑋 < 3)

¿ 𝑃 ( 0 ) + 𝑃 ( 1 ) +( 2 )

¿
( )
10
0 ( ) ( )
( 0.2 ) 0 ( 0.8 ) 10 + 1 0 ( 0.2 ) 1 ( 0.8 ) 9 + 1 0 ( 0.2 ) 2 ( 0.8 ) 8
1 2

¿ 0.6778
 What is the probability that the student guesses at least 5 answers correctly?
𝑋=𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ;0.2 )
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Method 1: 6 terms
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 5)
¿ 𝑃 ( 5 ) + 𝑃 ( 6 ) + 𝑃 ( 7 )+ 𝑃 ( 8 ) + 𝑃 ( 9 ) + 𝑃 ( 10 )
¿
( )
10
5 ( )
( 0.2 ) 5 ( 0.8 ) 5 + 1 0 ( 0.2 )6 ( 0.8 ) 4
6 +... +
( )
10
10
( 0.2 )10 ( 0.8 )0

¿ 0.0328
 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Method 2:
6 terms
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 5)
¿ 1− 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 4 )
¿ 1 −(10
0 )
( 0.2 ) 0 ( 0.8 )10
−
( )
10
1
( 0.2 )1 ( 0.8 )9
− ...
−
( )
10
4
( 0.2 )4 ( 0.8 ) 6

¿ 0.0328
What are the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of
questions the student guesses correct?

𝑛𝑝 𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 10 ;0.2 )

Mean: 𝜇=𝐸 ( 𝑋 )=¿10 × 0.2=2

𝑛𝑝𝑞
2
Variance: 𝜎 =¿10 × 0.2× 0.8=1.6

Standard deviation: 𝜎 = √ 1.6=1.265

Cumulative Binomial Distribution Tables
𝑥=0 ,1 , …, 𝑛
2nd column: values
1st column:
1st row: Common values

Cumulative probabilities
 Suppose X ~ Bin(12 ; 0,6). Find the probability that X is less than or
Example equal to 5:
We want:

Step 1: Find the table that has in the first column.

Step 2: Choose in the second column. The intersection of the

row and column is:
Step 3: Find in the top row.
𝑭 ( 𝟓 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑿 ≤ 𝟓 ) =𝟎 .𝟏𝟓𝟖𝟐

0.15820
Example In the multiple choice test example:
𝑋=𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦

(c) P( student guesses fewer than 3 answers correctly )

¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 < 3)
¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 2)
¿ 0.6778
0.67780
Example In the multiple choice test example:

(d) P( student guesses at least 5 answers correctly )

¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 5)

¿ 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 4)

¿ 1 −0.9672
¿ 0.0328
0.96720
 Binomial Distribution

Sample size Probability of success

¿ 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 ( 𝑥 ;𝑛;𝑝 ; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 / 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Value of Choose one

interest
TRUE 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥)
FALSE 𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 )
Example The experience of a telephone salesman is that 35% of his calls
lead to a sale and that the calls are independent. He plans on
making 150 calls today.
What is the probability that 60 calls will result in sales?
¿ 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 ( 𝑥;𝑛;𝑝; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 / 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Let
𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 𝟏𝟓𝟎;𝟎 . 𝟑𝟓 )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =60 )

Use “FALSE”
Example What is the probability that at most 42 calls will result in sales?

𝑋=the number of callsthat lead ¿ a sale .

𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 𝟏𝟓𝟎;𝟎 . 𝟑𝟓 )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 42 )
¿ 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 ( 𝑥 ;𝑛;𝑝; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 / 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )

Use “TRUE”
Example What is the probability that at least 58 calls lead to a sale?
𝑋=the number of callsthat lead ¿ a sale . ¿ 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 ( 𝑥 ;𝑛;𝑝; 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 / 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )
𝑋 𝐵𝑖𝑛 ( 150 ; 0.35 )

x x … x … x x 
0 1 2 … 56 57 58 59 … 150

𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥58)
 Shapes of the Binomial Distribution

Binom ial distribution n=20 p=0.5

0 .2

𝒑 =𝒒
0 .18

0 .16

0 .14

0 .12

0 .1

0 .0 8
Symmetric bell-
0 .0 6

0 .0 4
shaped
0 .0 2

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
x
 Binom ial distribution n=20 p=0.1

0 .3

0 .2 5

0 .2
𝒑<𝒒
0 .15

0 .1 Positively
0 .0 5 skewed
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
x
 Binom ial distribution n=20 p=0.9

0 .3

0 .2 5

0 .2
𝒑>𝒒
0 .15

0 .1
Negatively
0 .0 5
skewed
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
x